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Mid to long range discussion- 2025


wncsnow
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1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

It's quiet for a reason. This will be a brief cooldown after Thanksgiving but right back to at to above average in early December. 

sfct-imp.conus (7).png

sfct-mean-imp.conus (1).png

Close to record heat the 4th if that were to materialize. You can see huge motherlode of cold in Canada. That'll drive down on the heels of a major cutter. Then a boundary should ultimately setup somewhere along the Apps overall until the MJO goes toward late Ph 7. or the NAO goes negative. Either will drop that Boundary furthe SE. IF both coincide then the upper SE should see Snow Opportunities. If MJO ph.8 coincides with Blocking, fun and games for the deep South likely, imo.

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18 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Would rather get this out of the way early. 

Screenshot_2025-11-20-15-31-55-230.jpg

It's always seemed to me looking at the extended that we would cool down briefly after Thankgiving and then warm back up the first week of December then potentially turn much colder by the second week of December.  There are some good signals.  We shall see...

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Good news is the pacific doesn’t look as F’d as it did a few days ago. PNA Pretty much stays neutral now. That’s always the first place I look. As for the SER, as long as we don’t get that big western trough it can be beat back. A La Niña paired with a negative PNA is a death sentence for the southeast winter lovers 

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Baja Low has screwed us over many times in recent Years. Hard to dislodge the Pattern when a standing powerful SER has developed in response. Maybe the MJO will dislodge it if it gets to cold Phases at enough Amp. 

   A Block upstream would help particularly with a 50-50 in place. Without it you risk the SER, -NAO hookup.

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 Domination in the SE by mild/SE ridge in the first half of Dec has been forecasted by the Euro Weeklies for over a week. They’ve been steady as a rock. I’d be very surprised if it isn’t mild in the means. After that it is up in the air though recent runs have been suggesting a weaker version of a SE ridge/slightly warmer than normal for 12/15-21 lingering for the SE. We’ll see.

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For what it’s worth, the Euro AI has performed really well of late, including sniffing out the brief Thanksgiving cold shot followed by warmth, and it has below average temps up and down the EC by around the 5th. Goes to show it’s not all bad on the models but I still think sustained cold isn’t coming until we work into the mid month (maybe the 10th if we’re fortunate) timeframe. The teleconnections just aren’t there but phase 8 should be coming in to play by that juncture. 

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5 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Domination in the SE by mild/SE ridge in the first half of Dec has been forecasted by the Euro Weeklies for over a week. They’ve been steady as a rock. I’d be very surprised if it isn’t mild in the means. After that it is up in the air though recent runs have been suggesting a weaker version of a SE ridge/slightly warmer than normal for 12/15-21 lingering for the SE. We’ll see.

Yes, that's the thing many are a bit upset about, Models have expanded it's reach and extended a bit more over time Larry. Of course, that's the nature of these things as we know.  

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I have seen this song and dance many times the past 10 years.

1. Models/weeklies show great pattern weeks away

2. Models/weeklies start delaying or backing off of great pattern

3. Weeks go by and its still at or above average

4. Now its January and the change hasn't really happened. Fab Feb will save us

 

 

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