Met1985 Posted Tuesday at 07:59 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:59 PM 58 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Dumping cold over Texas instead of spreading East? We break this curse eventually right? This is a typical La Nina look actually. Dumps west then moves East or thats the idea. Still a lot to iron out though but Iike things heading into December. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted Wednesday at 01:01 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:01 AM Welcome to winter in the SE. We might hit the jackpot and then sadness for years. This entire decade so far has been wall to wall sadness for most. 6 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Wednesday at 05:30 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:30 PM 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Wednesday at 08:50 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:50 PM . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted Wednesday at 09:14 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:14 PM 23 minutes ago, BooneWX said: . We are so back! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted yesterday at 06:28 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 06:28 PM It's quiet for a reason. This will be a brief cooldown after Thanksgiving but right back to at to above average in early December. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted yesterday at 06:29 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:29 PM 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: It's quiet for a reason. This will be a brief cooldown after Thanksgiving but right back to at to above average in early December. Everything is looking great my man. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted yesterday at 06:32 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 06:32 PM 1 minute ago, Met1985 said: Everything is looking great my man. With the SE ridge looking stout, I have to be skeptical about any long lasting cold/winter weather threats. Maybe as we get deeper in December. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted yesterday at 07:04 PM Share Posted yesterday at 07:04 PM 32 minutes ago, wncsnow said: With the SE ridge looking stout, I have to be skeptical about any long lasting cold/winter weather threats. Maybe as we get deeper in December. I'd honestly prefer to get deeper into December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted yesterday at 07:35 PM Share Posted yesterday at 07:35 PM 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: It's quiet for a reason. This will be a brief cooldown after Thanksgiving but right back to at to above average in early December. Close to record heat the 4th if that were to materialize. You can see huge motherlode of cold in Canada. That'll drive down on the heels of a major cutter. Then a boundary should ultimately setup somewhere along the Apps overall until the MJO goes toward late Ph 7. or the NAO goes negative. Either will drop that Boundary furthe SE. IF both coincide then the upper SE should see Snow Opportunities. If MJO ph.8 coincides with Blocking, fun and games for the deep South likely, imo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted yesterday at 08:33 PM Share Posted yesterday at 08:33 PM Would rather get this out of the way early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted yesterday at 08:53 PM Share Posted yesterday at 08:53 PM 18 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Would rather get this out of the way early. It's always seemed to me looking at the extended that we would cool down briefly after Thankgiving and then warm back up the first week of December then potentially turn much colder by the second week of December. There are some good signals. We shall see... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted yesterday at 09:02 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 09:02 PM The SE Ridge is kinda like SEC Football. You hate to see it coming, and you know its probably going to win in the end. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted yesterday at 09:34 PM Share Posted yesterday at 09:34 PM 31 minutes ago, wncsnow said: The SE Ridge is kinda like SEC Football. You hate to see it coming, and you know its probably going to win in the end. I mean how many damn years lately have we been stuck with La Nina too? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago The first week of December was never on the table 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: The SE Ridge is kinda like SEC Football. You hate to see it coming, and you know its probably going to win in the end. The big ten has won the last two national championships Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago 2 hours ago, wncsnow said: The SE Ridge is kinda like SEC Football. You hate to see it coming, and you know its probably going to win in the end. Unless it’s playing the B1G. Hopefully we see a big midwestern OL steamroll that ridge in a couple of weeks. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago Good news is the pacific doesn’t look as F’d as it did a few days ago. PNA Pretty much stays neutral now. That’s always the first place I look. As for the SER, as long as we don’t get that big western trough it can be beat back. A La Niña paired with a negative PNA is a death sentence for the southeast winter lovers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted 20 hours ago Author Share Posted 20 hours ago 2 hours ago, franklin NCwx said: The big ten has won the last two national championships What about the past 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted 20 hours ago Author Share Posted 20 hours ago 4 hours ago, eyewall said: I mean how many damn years lately have we been stuck with La Nina too? Quite a few but the last couple el ninos sucked even worse TBH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 16 hours ago, wncsnow said: It's quiet for a reason. This will be a brief cooldown after Thanksgiving but right back to at to above average in early December. Amazing how fast the models will switch at that range. Can't put any stock in a 2-week model run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted 7 hours ago Author Share Posted 7 hours ago 3 hours ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Amazing how fast the models will switch at that range. Can't put any stock in a 2-week model run EPS agrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago Baja Low has screwed us over many times in recent Years. Hard to dislodge the Pattern when a standing powerful SER has developed in response. Maybe the MJO will dislodge it if it gets to cold Phases at enough Amp. A Block upstream would help particularly with a 50-50 in place. Without it you risk the SER, -NAO hookup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Domination in the SE by mild/SE ridge in the first half of Dec has been forecasted by the Euro Weeklies for over a week. They’ve been steady as a rock. I’d be very surprised if it isn’t mild in the means. After that it is up in the air though recent runs have been suggesting a weaker version of a SE ridge/slightly warmer than normal for 12/15-21 lingering for the SE. We’ll see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago For what it’s worth, the Euro AI has performed really well of late, including sniffing out the brief Thanksgiving cold shot followed by warmth, and it has below average temps up and down the EC by around the 5th. Goes to show it’s not all bad on the models but I still think sustained cold isn’t coming until we work into the mid month (maybe the 10th if we’re fortunate) timeframe. The teleconnections just aren’t there but phase 8 should be coming in to play by that juncture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 hours ago, GaWx said: Domination in the SE by mild/SE ridge in the first half of Dec has been forecasted by the Euro Weeklies for over a week. They’ve been steady as a rock. I’d be very surprised if it isn’t mild in the means. After that it is up in the air though recent runs have been suggesting a weaker version of a SE ridge/slightly warmer than normal for 12/15-21 lingering for the SE. We’ll see. Yes, that's the thing many are a bit upset about, Models have expanded it's reach and extended a bit more over time Larry. Of course, that's the nature of these things as we know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted 18 minutes ago Author Share Posted 18 minutes ago I have seen this song and dance many times the past 10 years. 1. Models/weeklies show great pattern weeks away 2. Models/weeklies start delaying or backing off of great pattern 3. Weeks go by and its still at or above average 4. Now its January and the change hasn't really happened. Fab Feb will save us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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