April 2024

[allgame830]

7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Hopefully not

Yesterday was disgusting 

How in the heck was yesterday disgusting! It was downright beautiful! 

[TriPol]

How much rain are we supposed to get yet again??

[bluewave]

45 minutes ago, TriPol said:

How much rain are we supposed to get yet again??

Widespread 0.5 to 1.5 with localized higher amounts. 
 

[snowman19]

15 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

This is likely a key point if one is looking far ahead to next winter. The balance of early odds seems to favor another warm winter with low snowfall, but skill this far out is essentially non-existent.

Just a very, very early preliminary look (which means nothing at this point), would seemingly support a La Niña, orientation and strength to be determined, +QBO, -PDO, maybe neutral to negative IOD come fall?, +AMO, high solar/high geomag. Snow cover and ice cover to be determined in the fall

[Snowlover11]

1 hour ago, TriPol said:

How much rain are we supposed to get yet again??

hopefully alot, this drought is crazy.

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Just a very, very early preliminary look (which means nothing at this point), would seemingly support a La Niña, orientation and strength to be determined, +QBO, -PDO, maybe neutral to negative IOD come fall?, +AMO, high solar/high geomag. Snow cover and ice cover to be determined in the fall

The updated information incorporating a possible +IOD and La Niña with record Atlantic SSTs shows how active the hurricane season can be if all the pieces come together.

 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The updated information incorporating a possible +IOD and La Niña with record Atlantic SSTs shows how active the hurricane season can be if all the pieces come together.

 

Saw that. My question is does that rare +IOD/Nina combo continue through fall? My guess is no

[JetsPens87]

9 hours ago, allgame830 said:

How in the heck was yesterday disgusting! It was downright beautiful! 

Tony is...... 

 

Different

[LibertyBell]

37 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The updated information incorporating a possible +IOD and La Niña with record Atlantic SSTs shows how active the hurricane season can be if all the pieces come together.

 

Sounds like a 1950s type summer

 

[LibertyBell]

20 hours ago, uofmiami said:

Good agreement with GEFS and EPS for that period before ridge goes away after the 20th. Hope the signal stays as we get closer to the period. 

Hopefully that ridge doesn't go away after the 20th.  In my experience once we hit 85, we usually don't go back to a cool pattern anymore

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

Tony is...... 

 

Different

I always think that anyone who complains about heat is overweight.  When you weigh 160 pounds heat doesn't bother you.  The more you weigh the more you sweat.  Time to stop consuming processed food and soda (including diet soda) and all that junk.

 

[nycwinter]

34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Hopefully that ridge doesn't go away after the 20th.  In my experience once we hit 85, we usually don't go back to a cool pattern anymore

i remember in 2002 we hit 90's in april it got cool after that

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Saw that. My question is does that rare +IOD/Nina combo continue through fall? My guess is no

The current forecasts have it more neutral by fall.

 

[SACRUS]

Onshore flow keeping it between 48 and 54 around the area.  Storms and rain later and overnighg upwards of 1.5 inches.  Clouds and some isolated showers into Friday afternoon. Dry but cloudy Saturday. Sun (4/14) through Thu (4/18) looks dry and warm.  Many areas look to get their first 80 degree readings of the season who missed it this past Tue (4/9).   Beyond that another front and trough comes through later next week / weekend.  Overall warmer second half.

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR:  87 (2011)
NYC: 85 (1955)
LGA: 82 (1955)


Lows:

EWR: 29 (1976)
NYC: 24 (1909)
LGA: 32 (1943)


Historical:

 

1935: Severe dust storms across Iowa and Kansas closed schools and highways. Dodge City, Kansas experienced its worst dust storm of record, with dense dust reported from the morning of the 9th until after sunset on the 11th. The sky was almost as dark as night at times during the daylight hours. The thick dust suspended traffic on highways and railroads and also suspended most business in town.  

1965 - Severe thunderstorms in the Upper Midwest spawned fifty-one tornadoes killing 256 persons and causing more than 200 million dollars damage. Indiana, Ohio and Michigan were hardest hit in the "Palm Sunday Tornado Outbreak". (David Ludlum)

 

1979: This day was known as "Terrible Tuesday" to the residents of Wichita Falls, Texas as a tornado rated F4 on the Fujita scale ripped through the city. A massive F4 tornado smashed into Wichita Falls killing 43 persons and causing 300 million dollars in damage. Another tornado struck Vernon, Texas killing eleven persons.

1987 - Ten days of flooding in the northeastern U.S. finally came to an end. Damage from flooding due to rain and snow melt ran into the billions of dollars. The collapse of the New York State Thruway Bridge over Schoharie Creek claimed ten lives. (Storm Data)

1988 - Sixteen cities in the western U.S., nine in California, reported new record high temperatures for the date. Afternoon highs of 95 degrees at Sacramento CA and 96 degrees at Bakersfield CA were the warmest of record for so early in the season. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Forty-four cities in the south central and eastern U.S. reported new record low temperatures for the date. Lows of 25 degrees at Conway AR, 29 degrees at Dallas/Fort Worth TX, and 22 degrees at Ozark AR, were April records. Lows of 26 degrees at Hot Springs AR and 31 degrees at Shreveport LA equalled April records. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - While showers produced heavy rain over much of the northeastern U.S., heavy snow blanketed northern Maine, with 13 inches reported at Telos Lake. Strong southwesterly winds accompanying the rain and snow gusted to 68 mph at the Blue Hill Observatory in Massachusetts. Rainfall totals of 1.04 inch at Pittsburgh PA and 1.52 inch at Buffalo NY on the 10th were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Sounds like a 1950s type summer

 

The Euro has a MJO 2,+IOD ,La Niña, record Atlantic SST summer with a ridge over the Rockies and Northeast undercut by a trough to our SW. So above average temperatures, dewpoints, and rainfall. The MJO 2 is also very active for tropical storms and hurricanes. 
 

[Stormlover74]

Looks like as little as .25 to .5 across parts of Central nj with 1"+ ne nj on north and east especially if euro is correct

[LibertyBell]

39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro has a MJO 2,+IOD ,La Niña, record Atlantic SST summer with a ridge over the Rockies and Northeast undercut by a trough to our SW. So above average temperatures, dewpoints, and rainfall. The MJO 2 is also very active for tropical storms and hurricanes. 
 

That's great, I just had to double down on my benadryl lol.  The more it rains the worse my allergies get.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

i remember in 2002 we hit 90's in april it got cool after that

For a short time I think, but 2002 was one of our hottest summers on record, especially here on the south shore.

The three hottest summers here were 1983, 2002 and 2010.

[Allsnow]

KDIX down again….

 

shocking 

[bluewave]

Even with all the clouds and rain so far this month, NYC was still able to go +1.5 for April 1st through 10th. 

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Even with all the clouds and rain so far this month, NYC was still able to go +1.5 for April 1st through 10th. 

Our cool downs are still above normal 

[uofmiami]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Even with all the clouds and rain so far this month, NYC was still able to go +1.5 for April 1st through 10th. 

It’s those warm overnight lows you’ve posted maps on. Seems to be a common theme. I’m sure we’ll have more record high minimums this summer again too. 

[Snowlover11]

55 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

KDIX down again….

 

shocking 

kmart connection 

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

kmart connection 

You’re on a roll today 

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Our cool downs are still above normal 

We were running about 1 degree below normal through the first week of the month, but we knew that wouldn't last these days. That 80 degree day on the 9th wiped away our negative departure for the month. 

[Allsnow]

 

[Allsnow]

Brutal 

 

 

[BucksCO_PA]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

For a short time I think, but 2002 was one of our hottest summers on record, especially here on the south shore.

The three hottest summers here were 1983, 2002 and 2010.

During the 2002 summer PHL never got to triple digits however did reach 99 degrees on 4 occasions, once in July & 3X in Aug. At the time Aug & Sept were top 10 warm months & Jul was the 11 warmest. The onslaught of warmth since that time has moved Jul & Sept down the list, Aug remains the 7th warmest on record.

[snowman19]

The Euro has a MJO 2,+IOD ,La Niña, record Atlantic SST summer with a ridge over the Rockies and Northeast undercut by a trough to our SW. So above average temperatures, dewpoints, and rainfall. The MJO 2 is also very active for tropical storms and hurricanes. 
 

The models are also predicting a flip to a +PMM, which when combined with a +AMO/Nina/+IOD is HIGHLY supportive of a hyper active Atlantic hurricane season