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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s just difficult for the models when we start getting such strong Greenland blocks and cutoff lows. While the -NAO will quickly rebound, the blocking will transfer to Hudson Bay. So the -NAO linking up with the Southeast ridge will transition to an omega blocking pattern. This makes specific forecasts beyond 120 hrs even lower skill than they typically are. So clouds, rain, and onshore flow will continue to be a factor going forward. I know many don’t like all the record warmth of recent years. But the only times we catch a break from all the warmth is when it gets very wet and cloudy with a persistent onshore flow. 

But if you go by the numbers we had hotter years (more 90 degree days) back in the 90s-- certainly more record number of 90 degree day summers.  I guess record warmth is more about the mins now, all the excessive rainfall is blunting record highs now.

All this excessive rainfall is worse than record heat, flooding kills more people than heat does, and also results in the spread of disease (via mosquitoes) and results in the buildup of toxic mold and higher rates of allergies.

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Tomorrow through Thursday will see periods of moderate to heavy  rain with highs in the 40s. A storm total 1"-3" rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely through Thursday.

Coastal flooding at times of high tide is likely. Central and upstate New York and central and northern New England could see accumulating snow, especially in higher elevations and away from the coastline.

After a cool first week of April, it will likely turn noticeably warmer during the second week of the month.

It is very likely that New York City's Central Park will finish the 2023-2024 snow season with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall for a record second consecutive season. Records go back to 1869.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.0°C for the week centered around March 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.27°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is fading. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring.

The SOI was -10.53 on April 1.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.970 today.

 

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URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
429 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024

CTZ009>012-NJZ006-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-032100-
/O.UPG.KOKX.HW.A.0003.240403T1500Z-240404T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.HW.W.0002.240403T1500Z-240404T1000Z/
Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern
New London-Hudson-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-
Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Northern
Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
429 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey,
  and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 11 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult,
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and
avoid windows. Watch for falling debris and tree limbs. Use caution
if you must drive.

&&

$$
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13 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

But if you go by the numbers we had hotter years (more 90 degree days) back in the 90s-- certainly more record number of 90 degree day summers.  I guess record warmth is more about the mins now, all the excessive rainfall is blunting record highs now.

All this excessive rainfall is worse than record heat, flooding kills more people than heat does, and also results in the spread of disease (via mosquitoes) and results in the buildup of toxic mold and higher rates of allergies.

The record rainfall last summer kept the 90° days in check. But we have seen many more top 10 years for 90° days since 2010 than we ever did in the past. The reason you feel like we are seeing less 90° days now is due to your location. The heatwaves since the 15-16 super El Niño have featured more onshore flow due to the higher pressures east of New England. So places like JFK get the sea breeze earlier in the day and miss the 90s while areas just to the west get the excessive number of 90° days. We are getting to the point where we need washouts during the summer and spring just in order to avoid record heat like we are currently seeing. 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
Missing Count
1 2010 54 0
2 2022 49 0
- 1993 49 0
3 1988 43 0
4 2021 41 0
- 2002 41 0
- 1991 41 0
5 2016 40 0
- 1983 40 0
- 1959 40 0
6 1994 39 0
- 1944 39 0
7 2005 37 0
- 1987 37 0
8 2018 36 0
- 1949 36 0
9 2015 35 0
10 1961 34 0
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7 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

We have a strong inversion and cold temps, what am I missing

The only difference is the winds are straight out of the east...usually we see these HHW with S or SE winds.  There's a map in the NE thread showing winds 60mph for CT shore and LI but again likely overdone.

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5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The only difference is the winds are straight out of the east...usually we see these HHW with S or SE winds.  There's a map in the NE thread showing winds 60mph for CT shore and LI but again likely overdone.

More worried about the coastal flood threat again. Hopefully that’s overdone too. The beaches/bays can’t take any more of it. 

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33 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

We have a strong inversion and cold temps, what am I missing

Upton-

winds.

Most 00Z model guidance is showing a strong LLJ anywhere from 60
to 70 kts at 925mb. Bufkit soundings show a pretty high
inversion with a lot of the strong winds from the LLJ both above
and below it, so its likely a lot of the strong winds will mix
down to the surface
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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Strong easterly jet ahead of secondary. Powerful winds near inversion.

What's not to get

The High Wind Wanring is one thing, the additional warning to stay in your basement and away from your windows almost sounds like it would be for a Tornado or Hurricane?

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6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

As expected….massive fail incoming for the CMC suite with the snow fantasies it kept insisting on, run after run 

The CMC has had one of the worst cold biases of any model this past winter. It’s also been very erratic at times. So better to just use the Euro and GFS suites longer range and then models like HRRR ,HREF, RGEM ..etc within 24-36 hrs. 

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2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

As expected….massive fail incoming for the CMC suite with the snow fantasies it kept insisting on, run after run. Embarrassing 

 

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

As expected….massive fail incoming for the CMC suite with the snow fantasies it kept insisting on, run after run. Embarrassing 

Boston will be pushing 3 years on its last snowfall of 4 inches or more next winter 

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The CMC has one of the worst cold biases of any model this past winter. 

I sure has, way worse than the GFS. I still can’t believe some mets actually ran with it and its bogus projections for this week

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