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In like a lamb--out like a Lion. March 1958 redux long range thread


Ji
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11 hours ago, RVAman said:

The clocks have moved forward. Nearly 80 on Friday. I'll get everyone a shot at the local Applebees if it snows.

Are you talking about sitting down, enjoying a gourmet meal.... at a place that's REAL special?? 

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Coldest now appears to be around last few days of march into first ten days of April, a bit late in season for snow but not impossible. 

The marc19-21 window seems to be closing for now, could re-open, flow appears too flat to generate coastal low but 23-24 now opens up, so far GFS is inland but looks like snow for w PA and upstate NY. 

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15 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Models that can't get 180 hours right in February will 100% be accurate at 306 and definitely snow on March 26.  LFG

As far as snow , models have about a 25% accuracy this winter.

when you and I started in early 2000’s they were about 70% accurate on snow calls.  Then they tried  to become more complicated and turn into microscopes rather than a broader based binoculars and since about 2011 they have been 50/50 with a recent decrease in that over last 3 years. 
They do great for wind events because they don’t start hyping it 2 weeks in advance in an attempt to accomplish what they can’t.  Winter weather models could try that approach 

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10 minutes ago, Ji said:

EPS had some massive hitters at 00z---gone at 12z. this hobby sucks ass

Yes, having a hobby with a singular desired outcome that you have no control over and is a rare occurrence is pretty sucky. 

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16 minutes ago, 87storms said:

The 18z gfs provided a friendly reminder that it needs to be cold for it to snow.

Yeah good luck with the 'bring the precip and I will take my chances' mantra. That rarely works outside of the western highlands these days. Need a legit cold air mass in place, and sometimes a wave moving along a thermal boundary with Arctic air pressing can work.

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On 3/13/2024 at 12:48 PM, Weather Will said:

Not over yet.....WB Day 12 or so both GFS and EURO have a storm and "Barney" purple cold is around.

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March 1942 (Baltimore)... Temp anomaly was +2.8...Hit 76f on feast of St. Patrick.....22" of snow fell on 3/29/42. Same date also the lowest temp of the month at 33f. That's right, a 22" snowfall month in which the temp never fell to freezing.

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