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Late Feb/March Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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48 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

GFS has abandoned the idea of any snow this upcoming weekend.  Will see if the weeklies/ GEFS extended hold for a Hail Mary chance later in March.

November not that far away….hopefully it’s a better path.  Just gotta get through the next 8 months.  

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1 minute ago, Ji said:


lol. There is the anti christ and then there is the anti weenie(you). You will destroy anyone with winter hope swiftly

I was just horribly wrong just a few weeks ago when I was full weenie mode. But that just isn’t cold enough. The last week of March we need those anomaly maps to show Barnie. 

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I was just horribly wrong just a few weeks ago when I was full weenie mode. But that just isn’t cold enough. The last week of March we need those anomaly maps to show Barnie. 

You mean February? Even those epic runs never showed really cold weather
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I was just horribly wrong just a few weeks ago when I was full weenie mode. But that just isn’t cold enough. The last week of March we need those anomaly maps to show Barnie. 

As long as it’s blue that far out we have a chance. A storm may pop up and those blues maybe darker
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@Jilook at the euro control for example. It develops a low around the 18th, perfect track, but it’s in the 40s under the CCB!  Only place that gets any snow is above 3000 feet and that’s iffy. That’s what those anomalies translate to in late March. 
 

We need arctic air. Absent that it would take some truly crazy event like a stalled 970 low that goes nuts. 

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Taking up drinking for lent. On a tequila kick lately. Sipping on the Casamigos attm...not horrible, but there are better if you are willing to spend the $

Have you tried some higher end mezcal? I love good tequilas, but man that smoke component in mezcal makes me a fan. 

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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 12z Control then rides another low up the coast on day 15, but colder air doesn’t move in until after the storm departs.

IMG_5491.png

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Look at the temps under those coldest anomalies at our latitude...

notcoldenough.thumb.jpg.baf234ec679ad2f89972a19503cfe52d.jpg

this is what's incoming on that control run, and it matches the anomalies on the ensembles also...and is colder than the GEFS and GEPS frankly...

This is JUST NOT COLD ENOUGH... I wish it was.  This isn't what I want.  You know I get excited when I think its going to snow...I was giving this period a chance, at least some chance...until maybe 3 days ago when it got into range to start seeing what the temp anomalies realistically looked like and its just not good enough.  Not shocking given its been the warmest winter ever across the continent.  Actually was silly to think there was much chance suddenly real legit cold was going to show up in late March.  The only chance for significant snow I can see now would be some crazy once a century type event, some phased bomb that stalls and destroys us, and even then I don't know if it would be cold enough in that airmass...it's just very unlikely. 

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Look at the temps under those coldest anomalies at our latitude...

notcoldenough.thumb.jpg.baf234ec679ad2f89972a19503cfe52d.jpg

this is what's incoming on that control run, and it matches the anomalies on the ensembles also...and is colder than the GEFS and GEPS frankly...

This is JUST NOT COLD ENOUGH... I wish it was.  This isn't what I want.  You know I get excited when I think its going to snow...I was giving this period a chance, at least some chance...until maybe 3 days ago when it got into range to start seeing what the temp anomalies realistically looked like and its just not good enough.  Not shocking given its been the warmest winter ever across the continent.  Actually was silly to think there was much chance suddenly real legit cold was going to show up in late March.  The only chance for significant snow I can see now would be some crazy once a century type event, some phased bomb that stalls and destroys us, and even then I don't know if it would be cold enough in that airmass...it's just very unlikely. 

I see your point & I know that you want it  snow as much, if not more, than most of us.

We would need to get lucky & time something right during the last 2 weeks of March, but that is the case in just about every year.

The end of the Control run incoming temperatures at hour 360 could give a well timed & near perfect track storm a chance, especially for the north & west crew in both of our forums.

IMG_5495.png

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55 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Have you tried some higher end mezcal? I love good tequilas, but man that smoke component in mezcal makes me a fan. 

Mezcal was my poison back in my 20s. I always fought for the worm in the bottle. Always seemed to contain a hallucinogenic component to it.

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18 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I see your point & I know that you want it  snow as much, if not more, than most of us.

We would need to get lucky & time something right during the last 2 weeks of March, but that is the case in just about every year.

The end of the Control run incoming temperatures at hour 360 could give a well timed & near perfect track storm a chance, especially for the north & west crew in both of our forums.

IMG_5495.png

You mean something like this, and I'm not being snarky....WB Extended control.

IMG_3386.png

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The heavy snow is not that far away....WB extended control.....Now, will it happen, probably 1 in 150 chance but better than the way shutout February looked.  I see this as something to do with the season winding down....better than looking at H5 maps for next winter already.

IMG_3391.png

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28 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I see your point & I know that you want it  snow as much, if not more, than most of us.

We would need to get lucky & time something right during the last 2 weeks of March, but that is the case in just about every year.

The end of the Control run incoming temperatures at hour 360 could give a well timed & near perfect track storm a chance, especially for the north & west crew in both of our forums.

IMG_5495.png

I wouldn't use the temps at 8am after a night of radiational cooling to judge the quality of the airmass.  The reason I pulled the plot I did was there is actually precip going on behind the wave across much of that area during the time I circled it.  Yes it's not heavy precip but it gives a clear idea of what we're working with.  Even under some precip its in the upper 40's and near 50 in most places.  It would take a really anomalous event to cool that airmass enough to support a snowstorm. 

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2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Taking up drinking for lent. On a tequila kick lately. Sipping on the Casamigos attm...not horrible, but there are better if you are willing to spend the $

Wait...I thought one is supposed to sacrifice and give something up for Lent.  Not engage in further "sin"!!! :lol:

As for tequila, not normally a fan of it straight-up, generally prefer it in something like a margarita.  Though I've had a couple several years ago that were remarkably smooth.

Personally, I prefer a fine single malt Scotch.  Straight-up, not on the rocks.  <ScottishBastardVoice>Aye, Laddie!  Get yerself a REAL drink, a nice dram, will ya!</ScottishBastardVoice> :lol:

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3 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Long shot, but I'll keep watching the period just after St. Paddy's Day.  After that, bring on mid 60's and sun.

For those of you still in the snow hunt, I wish you luck. After several days' taste of what we had yesterday, doesn't take long to throw in the towel at this point.

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