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The Annual Countdown to May 1st Thread ©


weatherwiz
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Well, while we still have a chunk of winter left, before we know it we'll be pushing right through spring. Birds returning and chirping for food and mating, grass growing, and trees budding. Besides all this, however, we'll be fast pushing into severe weather season and we're only 92 days away. The past few years overall have been relatively meh, not just from a severe standpoint but even from convective setups. Our best severe weather events occur with EML's or with steep lapse rates induced by a mid-level cold pool. EML events tend to occur every several years or so. As we make our final push through winter and towards spring, it's time to start gearing up for severe weather season! This is a good way to shake off some rust and discuss past events, setups, or just anything to transition the mind from winter weather forecasting to convective forecasting. 

92 days to go!!! 

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  • 2 weeks later...
3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Wow time is flying, likely expedited by the heavy tracking with the storm for the 13th but we're now down to 76 days!!!

In fact, two months from today, the 384 hour GFS will run out into May 1st...WILD

The current 798hr CFS ends on the 1st day of spring. 

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Doing my annual two weeks for storm chasing June 1 - June 15. Hopefully we can get some high risks into the Northeast during that period...or at least into IL/IN/OH. Farthest west my friend and I have ever gone is like central PA. Been willing to go farther these last 3-4 years but there's been NOTHING. 

I've always wanted to do the Plains but I am not as enthused about that anymore. Not with all these lunatics' who think that just because they're storm chasing means the rules of the road don't apply to them. then having to deal with chaser convergence. Also, the thought of spending a day or two of driving...gross. I do enough driving as it is and with my back, being in a car longer than a few hours makes bad things happen.  

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On 2/15/2024 at 9:18 PM, WinterWolf said:

I have to agree. I don’t get the whole idea.. lmao. 

For all the threads we’ve had in recent years chasing ghosts, this legacy thread is totally fine to me—not that it matters. I kind of like counting down to May even though it means nothing in the whole scheme of things.

On 2/20/2024 at 2:16 PM, weatherwiz said:

Doing my annual two weeks for storm chasing June 1 - June 15. Hopefully we can get some high risks into the Northeast during that period...or at least into IL/IN/OH. Farthest west my friend and I have ever gone is like central PA. Been willing to go farther these last 3-4 years but there's been NOTHING. 

I've always wanted to do the Plains but I am not as enthused about that anymore. Not with all these lunatics' who think that just because they're storm chasing means the rules of the road don't apply to them. then having to deal with chaser convergence. Also, the thought of spending a day or two of driving...gross. I do enough driving as it is and with my back, being in a car longer than a few hours makes bad things happen.  

Love ya Wiz but reread this. High risk in the northeast ain’t happening lol.

Going to the Plains is absolutely worth it. You don’t need high or even mod risk days to get good chasing in, and it can be done without driving 1,000 miles in a day. Given your knowledge you’d probably do very well sniffing out the under the radar setups, which significantly reduces the risk of chaser convergence. 

In my three times out there I’ve never come close to having issues with other people. My biggest challenges were the road network (stay off the dirt roads!) and staying well ahead of initiation. 

I love it out there. Worth every penny and ounce of effort. 

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