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43 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, there definitely is no comparison. there is a much higher frequency of larger storms than there ever was in those decades. LI was also a lot less snowy. unless you guys want nickel and dime winters with 10-20" of snow

To tell ya the truth, yes I would rather have a nickel and dime 20" over the 4 shots it took to get me there this year with one of those being a foot. Isn't 10 or so small events preferable to 4? My recollection as a kid in the 70s was winter seemed to last for a while even if it wasn't significant snowfall compared to the recent cool shots between nice days. 

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Temperatures soared to daily and even monthly records across the Plains States today. Monthly records were broken in cities that included: Des Moines, Minneapolis, Omaha, and Rockford. Laredo, TX saw the mercury top out at 98°. Minneapolis saw the mercury reach 50° for the 16th time this winter. That doubled the old mark of 8 days from Winter 1980-1981.

A piece of this warmth will sweep across the region on Wednesday ahead of a cold front sending readings into the 60s in New York City and Newark and 70s in Baltimore and Washington, DC.

An unseasonably mild pattern is now in place. Temperatures will remain generally above normal through the remainder of February. The potential exists for the closing days of February to wind up much warmer than normal overall. However, a brief cold shot could arrive resulting in cool temperatures for February 29th. Little or no additional snowfall is likely in the New York City or Philadelphia areas through the remainder of February.

March will likely see generally unseasonable warmth through the first 7-10 days of the month. No significant snowfall appears likely in the northern Middle Atlantic region during that time. Overall, March will likely be warmer than normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around February 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.65°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade during March. Neutral conditions could develop during the spring.

The SOI was +6.63 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.628 today.

On February 24 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.128 (RMM). The February 23-adjusted amplitude was 0.383 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 39.9° (4.0° above normal).

Winter 2023-2024 is on course to finish with a seasonal mean temperature of 40.4°-40.6°. That would rank the current winter among the ten warmest on record in New York City. It would also mark the second time when two consecutive winters have ranked among the top ten in terms of warmth. Winters 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 are currently the only two such winters to rank among the ten warmest on record. Winters 2022-2023 and 2023-2024 will become the first time on record that New York City has seen two consecutive winters with 40.0° or above mean temperatures. Since 1869, there have been six winters with a mean temperature of 40.0° or above. Five have occurred since 2000.

 

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Under 15” seasons in NYC before 1990 were usually the result of drier conditions or hostile storm tracks. These days it’s warmer conditions of 38.0° to 41.5° and hostile storm tracks which result in under 15” seasons. Having those two features working in tandem will eventually produce more frequent under 15” seasons. But we will still have opportunities for snowier seasons from time to time like 20-21.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30
DJF Average Temperature 
1 2023-04-30 2.3 41.0°
2 1973-04-30 2.8 35.5°
3 2002-04-30 3.5 41.5°
4 1919-04-30 3.8 36.6°
5 2020-04-30 4.8 39.2°
6 1901-04-30 5.1 31.7°
7 1932-04-30 5.3 40.1°
8 1998-04-30 5.5 39.6°
9 2012-04-30 7.4 40.5°
10 2024-04-30 7.5 40.3°
11 1989-04-30 8.1 35.9°
- 1878-04-30 8.1 33.2°
12 1951-04-30 9.3 36.1°
13 1997-04-30 10.0 37.8°
14 1942-04-30 11.3 32.9°
15 1955-04-30 11.5 33.9°
16 1931-04-30 11.6 33.7°
17 1995-04-30 11.8 37.1°
18 2008-04-30 11.9 36.4°
19 1872-04-30 12.1 29.5°
20 2007-04-30 12.4 36.5°
21 1992-04-30 12.6 37.2°
22 1999-04-30 12.7 38.6°
23 1980-04-30 12.8 35.4°
24 1986-04-30 13.0 33.4°
- 1959-04-30 13.0 30.8°
25 1975-04-30 13.1 37.5°
26 1990-04-30 13.4 35.7°
27 1930-04-30 13.6 35.4°
- 1900-04-30 13.6 33.6°
28 1929-04-30 13.8 34.7°
29 1950-04-30 14.0 37.6°

 

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42 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Under 15” seasons in NYC before 1990 were usually the result of drier conditions or hostile storm tracks. These days it’s warmer conditions of 38.0° to 41.5° and hostile storm tracks which result in under 15” seasons. Having those two features working in tandem will eventually produce more frequent under 15” seasons. But we will still have opportunities for snowier seasons from time to time like 20-21.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30
DJF Average Temperature 
1 2023-04-30 2.3 41.0°
2 1973-04-30 2.8 35.5°
3 2002-04-30 3.5 41.5°
4 1919-04-30 3.8 36.6°
5 2020-04-30 4.8 39.2°
6 1901-04-30 5.1 31.7°
7 1932-04-30 5.3 40.1°
8 1998-04-30 5.5 39.6°
9 2012-04-30 7.4 40.5°
10 2024-04-30 7.5 40.3°
11 1989-04-30 8.1 35.9°
- 1878-04-30 8.1 33.2°
12 1951-04-30 9.3 36.1°
13 1997-04-30 10.0 37.8°
14 1942-04-30 11.3 32.9°
15 1955-04-30 11.5 33.9°
16 1931-04-30 11.6 33.7°
17 1995-04-30 11.8 37.1°
18 2008-04-30 11.9 36.4°
19 1872-04-30 12.1 29.5°
20 2007-04-30 12.4 36.5°
21 1992-04-30 12.6 37.2°
22 1999-04-30 12.7 38.6°
23 1980-04-30 12.8 35.4°
24 1986-04-30 13.0 33.4°
- 1959-04-30 13.0 30.8°
25 1975-04-30 13.1 37.5°
26 1990-04-30 13.4 35.7°
27 1930-04-30 13.6 35.4°
- 1900-04-30 13.6 33.6°
28 1929-04-30 13.8 34.7°
29 1950-04-30 14.0 37.6°

 

What made 20-21 so snowy? I remember you said something about the mjo in October being a precursor for that January…

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1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

That was one of my favorite recent storms, gave me about 18 inches or so here in Toms River (I’m west of the parkway, very close to the Manchester border). 

But I do agree if that one were a bit better positioned that could’ve been an absolute blockbuster for all. I feel the same about 1/29/22; that storm had incredible dynamics and was cold! 22F at the time of peak snowfall early that morning, it was absolutely glorious. 

1/4/18 was an awesome event for LI but it was booking right along. Too bad there was nothing to slow it down. Our really epic events have some mechanism like blocking to slow the storm down. 14” from that one in Long Beach but it was largely over in 6 hours or so. 

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12 hours ago, jm1220 said:

1/4/18 was an awesome event for LI but it was booking right along. Too bad there was nothing to slow it down. Our really epic events have some mechanism like blocking to slow the storm down. 14” from that one in Long Beach but it was largely over in 6 hours or so. 

that was the all day white out-- like a half sized version of January 2016 lol\

true blizzard conditions for 6 straight hours instead of 12

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13 hours ago, bluewave said:

Under 15” seasons in NYC before 1990 were usually the result of drier conditions or hostile storm tracks. These days it’s warmer conditions of 38.0° to 41.5° and hostile storm tracks which result in under 15” seasons. Having those two features working in tandem will eventually produce more frequent under 15” seasons. But we will still have opportunities for snowier seasons from time to time like 20-21.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30
DJF Average Temperature 
1 2023-04-30 2.3 41.0°
2 1973-04-30 2.8 35.5°
3 2002-04-30 3.5 41.5°
4 1919-04-30 3.8 36.6°
5 2020-04-30 4.8 39.2°
6 1901-04-30 5.1 31.7°
7 1932-04-30 5.3 40.1°
8 1998-04-30 5.5 39.6°
9 2012-04-30 7.4 40.5°
10 2024-04-30 7.5 40.3°
11 1989-04-30 8.1 35.9°
- 1878-04-30 8.1 33.2°
12 1951-04-30 9.3 36.1°
13 1997-04-30 10.0 37.8°
14 1942-04-30 11.3 32.9°
15 1955-04-30 11.5 33.9°
16 1931-04-30 11.6 33.7°
17 1995-04-30 11.8 37.1°
18 2008-04-30 11.9 36.4°
19 1872-04-30 12.1 29.5°
20 2007-04-30 12.4 36.5°
21 1992-04-30 12.6 37.2°
22 1999-04-30 12.7 38.6°
23 1980-04-30 12.8 35.4°
24 1986-04-30 13.0 33.4°
- 1959-04-30 13.0 30.8°
25 1975-04-30 13.1 37.5°
26 1990-04-30 13.4 35.7°
27 1930-04-30 13.6 35.4°
- 1900-04-30 13.6 33.6°
28 1929-04-30 13.8 34.7°
29 1950-04-30 14.0 37.6°

 

20-21 didn't have the best storm tracks for us either

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15 hours ago, bluewave said:

The 95° days have also been increasing at the warm spots like Newark away from the sea breeze. But the days with the heat index of 95° have also been increasing due to the higher humidity. 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=161&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&var=max_tmpf&dir=aoa&thres=95&month=all&year=2024&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=js


4D8CF729-01EE-4F8C-A285-B1C031E90019.thumb.jpeg.bc25b0afa8f4386bb69660228f8d5279.jpeg

448E911C-C1BD-47DC-9A15-E7BBACC753D5.thumb.jpeg.c36e4bba5d7deb13dacf23a040fcf2ee.jpeg

 

But those places are always hot lol-- in 1993 Newark had 9 days of 100 degrees or higher (including 5 days in a row!)-- has that ever been matched?

I think we can finally call it  a new climate when the coast gets temperatures every year over 100 degrees-- do you think we'll have that by 2050? I want JFK to get at least one high every year over 100 degrees.

 

 

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13 hours ago, Allsnow said:

What made 20-21 so snowy? I remember you said something about the mjo in October being a precursor for that January…

I noticed that the MJO 5-6 was much stronger in the Octobers ahead of our snowiest La Ninas since 2010. But two of our three snowiest La Niña winters were still warmer than average like the ones with the weaker October MJO 5-6 and less snowy winters. So not sure why this has worked out for us just since 2010. The 10-11 and 11-12 multiyear La Niña was snowier in 10-11. Then the 16-17 and 17-18 event was snowier in 17-18. This was followed by 20-21, 21-22, and 22-23 which was snowiest in 20-21. It was almost like 20-21 was a weaker and warmer reflection of the stronger -AO and snowy 10-11. 16-17 was less snowy and much warmer than 17-18. But still found a way to produce above average snow. February 2018 was the most extreme daily winter warmth record we ever saw when we hit 80° for the first time. Even if the winter into spring was so snowy.

A55AB1BE-A844-4751-983F-CF4C018CDA0D.png.c79b89a0b071aa7070ac8dcc5f651e1b.png

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I noticed that the MJO 5-6 was much stronger in the Octobers ahead of our snowiest La Ninas since 2010. But two of our three snowiest La Niña winters were still warmer than average like the ones with the weaker October MJO 5-6 and less snowy winters. So not sure why this has worked out for us just since 2010. The 10-11 and 11-12 multiyear La Niña was snowier in 10-11. Then the 16-17 and 17-18 event was snowier in 17-18. This was followed by 20-21, 21-22, and 22-23 which was snowiest in 20-21. It was almost like 20-21 was a weaker and warmer reflection of the stronger -AO and snowy 10-11. 16-17 was less snowy and much warmer than 17-18. But still found a way to produce above average snow. February 2018 was the most extreme daily winter warmth record we ever saw when we hit 80° for the first time. Even if the winter into spring was so snowy.

A55AB1BE-A844-4751-983F-CF4C018CDA0D.png.c79b89a0b071aa7070ac8dcc5f651e1b.png

 

Thanks. Hopefully some hope for next winter. Great insight 

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6 minutes ago, MANDA said:

With the way the warmth over performs I'll take the over on those temps.

It will feel like quite a shift if some of those snow squalls can make it east of the Delaware Thursday morning with upper 20s.

 

84D03B53-D43F-49F3-9E4D-E96503858E91.thumb.png.c48dcabebfe4cf475ae63af40f5cd3f8.png

 

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16 minutes ago, MANDA said:

With the way the warmth over performs I'll take the over on those temps.

Warmth usually overperforms this time of year. The trees aren’t leafed out which means less shade and evapotranspiration. Many times models don’t consider that. 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It will feel like quite a shift if some of those snow squalls can make it east of the Delaware Thursday morning with upper 20s.

 

84D03B53-D43F-49F3-9E4D-E96503858E91.thumb.png.c48dcabebfe4cf475ae63af40f5cd3f8.png

 

What’s up with that dew point crash on the sounding? That represents super dry air there around 600mb? I comprehend the gist well enough (change of air dynamics with altitude) but generally aren’t great at reading these. 

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17 hours ago, bluewave said:

Under 15” seasons in NYC before 1990 were usually the result of drier conditions or hostile storm tracks. These days it’s warmer conditions of 38.0° to 41.5° and hostile storm tracks which result in under 15” seasons. Having those two features working in tandem will eventually produce more frequent under 15” seasons. But we will still have opportunities for snowier seasons from time to time like 20-21.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30
DJF Average Temperature 
1 2023-04-30 2.3 41.0°
2 1973-04-30 2.8 35.5°
3 2002-04-30 3.5 41.5°
4 1919-04-30 3.8 36.6°
5 2020-04-30 4.8 39.2°
6 1901-04-30 5.1 31.7°
7 1932-04-30 5.3 40.1°
8 1998-04-30 5.5 39.6°
9 2012-04-30 7.4 40.5°
10 2024-04-30 7.5 40.3°
11 1989-04-30 8.1 35.9°
- 1878-04-30 8.1 33.2°
12 1951-04-30 9.3 36.1°
13 1997-04-30 10.0 37.8°
14 1942-04-30 11.3 32.9°
15 1955-04-30 11.5 33.9°
16 1931-04-30 11.6 33.7°
17 1995-04-30 11.8 37.1°
18 2008-04-30 11.9 36.4°
19 1872-04-30 12.1 29.5°
20 2007-04-30 12.4 36.5°
21 1992-04-30 12.6 37.2°
22 1999-04-30 12.7 38.6°
23 1980-04-30 12.8 35.4°
24 1986-04-30 13.0 33.4°
- 1959-04-30 13.0 30.8°
25 1975-04-30 13.1 37.5°
26 1990-04-30 13.4 35.7°
27 1930-04-30 13.6 35.4°
- 1900-04-30 13.6 33.6°
28 1929-04-30 13.8 34.7°
29 1950-04-30 14.0 37.6°

 

Do you think we've reached a place and time where 40 degree average winter temperatures are now the norm?

 

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Records:

 

Highs:

EWR:  74 (1997)
NYC: 72 (1997)
LGA: 73 (1997)


Lows:

EWR: 7 (1934)
NYC: 5 (1900)
LGA: 9 (1950)

 

Historical:

 

1717 - What was perhaps the greatest snow in New England history commenced on this date. During a ten day period a series of four snowstorms dumped three feet of snow upon Boston, and the city was snowbound for two weeks. Up to six feet of snow was reported farther to the north, and drifts covered many one story homes. (David Ludlum)

1969 - A record snowstorm in Maine came to an end. Two to four feet of snow buried southern and central Maine, with a state record of 57 inches reported at West Forks. Drifts covered many single story homes, and the weight of the snow collapsed many roofs. Two to four feet of snow also buried northeastern Vermont and northeastern Massachusetts. In New Hampshire, Mount Washington NH reported 97.8 inches of snow, a record storm total for New England. (24th-28th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1986: It was 99 degrees in Palm Springs, California, the highest temperature on record for February. Palm Springs also reached 99 degrees on February 26, 1986.

1987 - A storm spread heavy snow into the Central High Plains Region, and produced severe thunderstorms in the Southern Plains. Snowfall totals in western Nebraska ranged up to 19 inches at Sydney. Severe thunderstorms in Oklahoma produced baseball size hail at Stringtown and Atoka. A storm in the eastern U.S. produced heavy rain over the Carolinas and heavy snow in the southern Appalachians and piedmont region. Five inches of rain left four feet of water in the streets of Greenville SC. Snowfall totals in southwestern Virginia ranged up to 20 inches. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms along a cold front produced heavy rain in southern California, with up to 2.52 inches reported in Ventura County. Strong winds accompanying the rain gusted to 55 mph in the Tehachapi Mountains. Rapid City SD established a February record with an afternoon high of 75 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Rain and snow prevailed in the southeastern U.S. Up to eight inches of snow blanketed north central Tennessee, and snowfall totals in western North Carolina ranged up to 14 inches at Mount Mitchell. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - A winter storm produced heavy snow in southeastern Colorado, with 12 inches reported at Lamar. The same storm produced severe thunderstorms over the Southern High Plains, with wind gusts to 93 mph reported at the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico. Low pressure brought high winds to the Prince William Sound area of Alaska. Big River Lakes reported wind gusts to 92 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2010 - A weak EF0 tornado causes no damage as it moved across California's southern San Joaquin Valley. However it is the only tornado reported in the United States during the month. According to the Storm Prediction Center only five months since 1950 have lacked a tornado report. The Weather Doctor

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3 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

What’s up with that dew point crash on the sounding? That represents super dry air there around 600mb? I comprehend the gist well enough (change of air dynamics with altitude) but generally aren’t great at reading these. 

Very unusual. Many comments on the rare location of the dryline to our West. We could actually see dewpoints in the single digits on Thursday behind the front. 
 

 

 

86E1C441-F064-4ADB-BCA7-C5A5E36A6C99.thumb.png.9afa53a60f408be01e8cadb5032502e5.png

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