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Jan/Early Feb Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 3


WinterWxLuvr
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45 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Perhaps the biggest story of the last 2 months is the drought busting amount of precipitation.  Another widespread inch plus on the way over the next couple of days.

IMG_3012.png

Things are looking a lot better, but parts of the Valley are still abnormally dry.  My water table is still 10.68 ft. below normal according to the  USGS.

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19 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

There is some crazy shit starting to show up in the long range.  Storms getting trapped under 40* and meandering around.  Redonculous retrogrades.  Fun times ahead. 

Anyone like huge captured snow trowals? Over DCA and also Mt PSU for days and days?

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2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i’m not one for dramatics, but if the weeklies have the right idea, someone is getting a MECS or HECS

it is literally a recreation of Feb 1958/1978/2010

And, the weeklies have been pretty well dead-on consistent if I'm not mistaken, for the past many runs?  The latter part of the ensemble runs (not just the EPS but the GEFS) have also been "leading into" what the Euro weeklies show if I interpret that correctly.  To me, that's a very good sign, no "can kicking" or anything like that.  I even think the wild looks we're seeing for the first week of February were hinted at, as the sort of transition period.  Hopefully this will all hold for February into the early part of March.  At some point in the next week we should see some of the ops runs do "interesting" things...they already are, in fact.

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6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i think people underestimate how much damage can be done in 3-4 weeks, as well

We've seen that happen, too, in the past.  As one example, February 2015 here in the mid-Atlantic.  From January up to about Valentine's Day, it was a pretty tame and blah winter.  We missed out on some events that gave us rain and drizzle.  Then an Arctic front with a blast of snow and cold went through on Feb. 14, and that ushered in a ~3 week period with an extremely cold rest of February and early March along with some decent moderate wintry events.  No, it wasn't any kind of HECS-level thing but the pattern then was a lot different than this look (it wouldn't have been conducive to a major storm).  Yet we still managed all that in a short turnaround time.

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6 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

And, the weeklies have been pretty well dead-on consistent if I'm not mistaken, for the past many runs?  The latter part of the ensemble runs (not just the EPS but the GEFS) have also been "leading into" what the Euro weeklies show if I interpret that correctly.  To me, that's a very good sign, no "can kicking" or anything like that.  I even think the wild looks we're seeing for the first week of February were hinted at, as the sort of transition period.  Hopefully this will all hold for February into the early part of March.  At some point in the next week we should see some of the ops runs do "interesting" things...they already are, in fact.

yeah, every ensemble has been leading to that look with no push back on the timing. it’s kind of uncanny

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3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yes, but they also had January as cold. I think we are +2-4 above average for the month. 

This is true...but just looking at DCA they were actually a hair (ass hair, according to @stormtracker:lol:) colder than normal earlier this week.  Like a degree or less I think.  But yeah, a 60+ degree day yesterday and pushing 80 today along with lows that didn't even dip into the 40s will blow that to being above normal easily.

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