Cobalt Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 11 minutes ago, stormtracker said: lol, Euro slides it under us and we get fridge...surface progresses colder but it's gone by then. We're too far north! probably connected.. fridge doing its magic 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 7 minutes ago, Cobalt said: probably connected.. fridge doing its magic shit. fringed 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 10 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Everyone hates extended snow maps but when I see hits to the South and East I know at least it's not a shut the blinds pattern. WB 12Z GEFS. I'm wholly vested. You have the next panel, 396hr? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Euro evolution definitely intriguing for Feb 4-6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 45 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Perhaps the biggest story of the last 2 months is the drought busting amount of precipitation. Another widespread inch plus on the way over the next couple of days. Things are looking a lot better, but parts of the Valley are still abnormally dry. My water table is still 10.68 ft. below normal according to the USGS. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Both Euro and GFS show some hope in windows and a lot to be resolved with some crazy storm motion! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 19 hours ago, psuhoffman said: There is some crazy shit starting to show up in the long range. Storms getting trapped under 40* and meandering around. Redonculous retrogrades. Fun times ahead. Anyone like huge captured snow trowals? Over DCA and also Mt PSU for days and days? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is so zonked lmao wild omega block. i do like seeing polar flow get established, though I see I am not the only one who watches Press My Luck! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: No gefs discussion? Must not be as good 384hr now really starts building an Aleutian low.. -200dm on the mean. -NAO also trying to get organized, but let's see if it holds going into the next few days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 EPS is near identical to the weeklies 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 weeklies are still loaded beyond belief. not a single tick back, either 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 30 days. 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: 30 days. i’m not one for dramatics, but if the weeklies have the right idea, someone is getting a MECS or HECS it is literally a recreation of Feb 1958/1978/2010 12 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: i’m not one for dramatics, but if the weeklies have the right idea, someone is getting a MECS or HECS More than one 12 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Just now, psuhoffman said: More than one i think people underestimate how much damage can be done in 3-4 weeks, as well 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: More than one I’m so ready 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Wouldn't it be weird though for this pattern to just show up for 1-month all of a sudden? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 30 days. If we don't get snow with that look it's time to find another hobby! 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: i’m not one for dramatics, but if the weeklies have the right idea, someone is getting a MECS or HECS it is literally a recreation of Feb 1958/1978/2010 And, the weeklies have been pretty well dead-on consistent if I'm not mistaken, for the past many runs? The latter part of the ensemble runs (not just the EPS but the GEFS) have also been "leading into" what the Euro weeklies show if I interpret that correctly. To me, that's a very good sign, no "can kicking" or anything like that. I even think the wild looks we're seeing for the first week of February were hinted at, as the sort of transition period. Hopefully this will all hold for February into the early part of March. At some point in the next week we should see some of the ops runs do "interesting" things...they already are, in fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Wouldn't it be weird though for this pattern to just show up for 1-month all of a sudden? Hasn't the seasonals been showing this look for February for months and months now? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 minute ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: And, the weeklies have been pretty well dead-on consistent if I'm not mistaken, for the past many runs? They've been showing this since September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Just now, Chris78 said: Hasn't the seasonals been showing this look for February for months and months now? Yes, but they also had January as cold. I think we are +2-4 above average for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Euro evolution definitely intriguing for Feb 4-6 That shit looks complicated....very complicated. I guess there's a lower probability chance. But how well do we do complicated 'round these here parts? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: If we don't get snow with that look it's time to find another hobby! If I had a nickel for every time I heard that this winter I would have about…85 cents… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: i think people underestimate how much damage can be done in 3-4 weeks, as well We've seen that happen, too, in the past. As one example, February 2015 here in the mid-Atlantic. From January up to about Valentine's Day, it was a pretty tame and blah winter. We missed out on some events that gave us rain and drizzle. Then an Arctic front with a blast of snow and cold went through on Feb. 14, and that ushered in a ~3 week period with an extremely cold rest of February and early March along with some decent moderate wintry events. No, it wasn't any kind of HECS-level thing but the pattern then was a lot different than this look (it wouldn't have been conducive to a major storm). Yet we still managed all that in a short turnaround time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 6 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: And, the weeklies have been pretty well dead-on consistent if I'm not mistaken, for the past many runs? The latter part of the ensemble runs (not just the EPS but the GEFS) have also been "leading into" what the Euro weeklies show if I interpret that correctly. To me, that's a very good sign, no "can kicking" or anything like that. I even think the wild looks we're seeing for the first week of February were hinted at, as the sort of transition period. Hopefully this will all hold for February into the early part of March. At some point in the next week we should see some of the ops runs do "interesting" things...they already are, in fact. yeah, every ensemble has been leading to that look with no push back on the timing. it’s kind of uncanny 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 6 minutes ago, Chris78 said: If we don't get snow with that look it's time to find another hobby! I laughed out loud. Not going to lie, if we can’t get snow with this, we are cooked. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I’m so ready Seriously it’s time to end this nonsense. Everything’s lined up. We just need the finish. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Yes, but they also had January as cold. I think we are +2-4 above average for the month. This is true...but just looking at DCA they were actually a hair (ass hair, according to @stormtracker? ) colder than normal earlier this week. Like a degree or less I think. But yeah, a 60+ degree day yesterday and pushing 80 today along with lows that didn't even dip into the 40s will blow that to being above normal easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 This is a pretty insane amount of moisture to work with though if it does get cold. https://ibb.co/553zQrQ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts