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Snow Friday 1/19/24: is it a period of light snow (less than 2"), or is there a chance of a 5" swath in part of the NYC subforum? Event OBS.


wdrag
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3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don there's still a chance we could all see less than an inch from this lol.

Except for central and south NJ of course.

Yes. My thinking is that Central Park will see a coating to 2" (1" being most likely but downside risk). The 12z national blend of model forecast is down to 1.2".

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I don't want to start any trouble but I myself did not expect to see flakes falling here in New City as they currently are right now at 830am. I have been watching the radar and I thought for sure I was looking at virga but light snow is falling in New City outside my window ,,,,,that is all

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=DIX-N0C-1-24-100-usa-rad

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1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

I don't want to start any trouble but I myself did not expect to see flakes falling here in New City as they currently are right now at 830am. I have been watching the radar and I thought for sure I was looking at virga but light snow is falling in New City outside my window ,,,,,that is all

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=DIX-N0C-1-24-100-usa-rad

Snow in new city,dryslot in southern jersey??. Sez alot about the precip.shield coming a bit more northerly then modeled.

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6 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

I don't want to start any trouble but I myself did not expect to see flakes falling here in New City as they currently are right now at 830am. I have been watching the radar and I thought for sure I was looking at virga but light snow is falling in New City outside my window ,,,,,that is all

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=DIX-N0C-1-24-100-usa-rad

Yeah I agree I wasn’t expecting anything prior to 11am… maybe just maybe a positive bust! RH is at 70% which isn’t too bad. 27/20 

update: 26/20… 76% RH 

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Reports...widespred 3-4" already DC-BWI and am seeing 2-3" just west of PHl and reports of 1/2 mile moderate snow Trenton and Mount Pocono which is art least 1/2"/hr if it holds for an hour.  Snow looks better to me today then it did Tuesday.   Still disorganized but there should be a nice consolidation during midday according to a number of short fuse models.   0.2" at 835AM in this Wantage location since it began at 715A. Flakes still a little too small so its dense power at 21F.

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2 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Yeah I agree I wasn’t expecting anything prior to 11am… maybe just maybe a positive bust! RH is at 70% which isn’t too bad. 27/20 

Maybe one of the more knowledgeable fellows or ladies can chime in on why I am seeing lite snow 20 miles North of the GW Bridge right now and again snow flakes are falling here 

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6 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Snow in new city,dryslot in southern jersey??. Sez alot about the precip.shield coming a bit more northerly then modeled.

It would be funny/ironic if there were two areas of snowfall, one farther north in the LHV and the other one with the IVT, with little or nothing in between.

Right now, it looks like the sun wants to come out on the south shore of Long Island lol.

 

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2 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Reports...widespred 3-4" already DC-BWI and am seeing 2-3" just west of PHl and reports of 1/2 mile moderate snow Trenton and Mount Pocono which is art least 1/2"/hr if it holds for an hour.  Snow looks better to me today then it did Tuesday.   Still disorganized but there should be a nice consolidation during midday according to a number of short fuse models.   0.2" at 835AM in this Wantage location since it began at 715A. Flakes still a little too small so its dense power at 21F.

Walt, is there a chance it will dry up as it comes east? There is more confluence the further east you go, no?

 

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3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It would be funny/ironic if there were two areas of snowfall, one farther north in the LHV and the other one with the IVT, with little or nothing in between.

Right now, it looks like the sun wants to come out on the south shore of Long Island lol.

 

Ive been hinting at this possibility since yesterday. Also one of the prominent mets also said on twitter that this is no ordinary "low" it had potential to bomb along the coast. Not saying it is but you see the potential in real time. Not a model.

 

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3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It would be funny/ironic if there were two areas of snowfall, one farther north in the LHV and the other one with the IVT, with little or nothing in between.

Right now, it looks like the sun wants to come out on the south shore of Long Island lol.

 

That wouldn't be too surprising. Models had the metro dry slot for a while with better amounts north/nw and south

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As you can tell I’m not optimistic about this at all. Hopefully I’m wrong. 

It’s snowing albeit flurries on north shore of LI. Syosset and Melville it’s been flurrying for past hour. Is it doing nothing on south shore?


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