WhiteoutMD Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 I could be way off but I see snow starting around 5 pm tomorrow ending around 5 pm Tuesday around DC. Is this way off I don't see any snow tonight. Maybe some flurry's mid day tomorrow. What am I missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 4 minutes ago, Benjamn3 said: If you don’t mind can you show the Roanoke area? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 18Z RGEM looks like a weenie run based off the early maps, FWIW. Also supports the WWA tonight, I believe. Better maps hopefully in a few. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 ICON juiced up slightly. Should be a better run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Thank you sir. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 4 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said: I could be way off but I see snow starting around 5 pm tomorrow ending around 5 pm Tuesday around DC. Is this way off I don't see any snow tonight. Maybe some flurry's mid day tomorrow. What am I missing? Around 6am tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 18z HRRR is cold smoke for everyone west of the bay it seems. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: 12z HRRR is cold smoke for everyone west of the bay it seems. 12z run? Typo, you mean newest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: 12z HRRR is cold smoke for everyone west of the bay it seems. Did you mean 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: 12z run? Typo, you mean newest? 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: Did you mean 18z? Sigh, yes. My phone stinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 29 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Nah. WWA at best friend When's the last time we even had a WWA for the DC Metro-Balt, or at least a "legit" one? Seriously, would that have been March 2022, with that short cold blast and a couple of inches of snow (some areas got more)? I know there was the pre-dawn half inch in early February last year but don't know if they even issued anything for that (and the only measurable snow all last season!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 18Z RGEM looks like a weenie run based off the early maps, FWIW. Also supports the WWA tonight, I believe. Better maps hopefully in a few. admittedly not as epic as I'd thought it might be (early maps might show some virga) it still juiced up slightly. tries a bit w/ the coastal as well 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: admittedly not as epic as I'd thought it might be (early maps might show some virga) it still juiced up slightly. tries a bit w/ the coastal as well Very nice, uniform swath. I like it, tries with coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: admittedly not as epic as I'd thought it might be (early maps might show some virga) it still juiced up slightly. tries a bit w/ the coastal as well 3" is the number. Anything more is bonus. I know we all would take this. No one loses and no one is a big winner either. Equality guys, equality 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 46 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Yeah. It’s kind of wacky. Moved up and over early. I’m tempted to toss it. Yeah...this 23 minutes ago, WxMan1 said: I'd be wary of the NAM folks, even the 3km. Mainly because, well, it's the NAM (btw NCEP can't pull the plug on that model soon enough). I know it's in the shorter range when the NAM could actually be right. But look at some of the CAMS, including the latest (18Z) HREF are all farther south with the axis. I mean, look at the latest HRRR (the one Pivotal Wx map)...heaviest stays south! And were within 24-36 hours of go time. Will be interesting to see the 18Z GFS trends. ECMWF and UKMET, while not as far south with the max QPF and snow axis (into central VA), are definitely more muted with more widespread 2-3" for most, which is consistent with the NBM. Proceed with caution with the NAM3.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 36 minutes ago, stormy said: Nam raises my Kuchera to 4.7 from 4.0. Mt. psu gets 6.2. He said he needed at least 4 so this should make him happy. I meant real snow. That’s like 50” of NAM snow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deguy50 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 23 minutes ago, Benjamn3 said: I agree, I have anxiety, depression and back pain (USMC vet lmao) and it helps me immensely. Good Luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 What does the SUNY MM5 show? 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, Deck Pic said: What does the SUNY MM5 show? Omg, what a throwback 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 This event reminds me a little of 2/1-2/13. Though, this should be better. Snow showers fell periodically over a 2 day period with temps below freezing. Sometimes moderate. Only ended up with 1", but it was nice to have snow in the air for a lot of the time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: This event reminds me a little of 2/1-2/13. Though, this should be better. Snow showers fell periodically over a 2 day period with temps below freezing. Sometimes moderate. Only ended up with 1", but it was nice to have snow in the air for a lot of the time. Remember that one, wintry scene. This should be accompanied (hopefully by periods of moderate rates, maybe we get some 1/2mi vis SN going to help tack on some totals. I do think there will be some localized heavier stuff, especially if coastal enhancement pants out overnight tomorrow. If I still lived near Baltimore, my bar would be about 2.5” right now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: What does the SUNY MM5 show? Amwx had an MM5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, DDweatherman said: Remember that one, wintry scene. This should be accompanied (hopefully by periods of moderate rates, maybe we get some 1/2mi vis SN going to help tack on some totals. I do think there will be some localized heavier stuff, especially if coastal enhancement pants out overnight tomorrow. If I still lived near Baltimore, my bar would be about 2.5” right now The National Weather Service promised me 3-4"+ so that's my bar 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I meant real snow. That’s like 50” of NAM snow Just smile and be happy, that's headed in the right direction. The NAM Nest has raised you from 3.5" to 6.3". Wow!!! If this keeps up You may need to get your blower out!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 hurry up gfs, I wanna nap so bad 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Anyone ready to keep the fire burning with the GFS? Or are we due for a shit run with 2” totals only DC and south? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, stormtracker said: hurry up gfs, I wanna nap so bad Is this going to be a drunken PBP (sort of like Drunken Boxing)??? Hopefully we'll get a very slurred "FOLKS!", and then you can return to your martini(s)! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Anyone know what that RRFS experimental thing is? Hopefully is sucks because it’s the only thing that has looked consistently awful for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Anyone ready to keep the fire burning with the GFS? Or are we due for a shit run with 2” totals only DC and south? As one who's suffered in the SE FfxCo lowlands with mere "fattie" snow flurries for about 15 min earlier this afternoon...I'll take a shit run of 2" over the next 48 hours. Although the warnings issued forth from LWX are definitely encouraging for tonight and the next day or two, as well as the end of the week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Have they run the 1.33 km NAM over the mid atlantic. Often they'll do it if there is a storm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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