Monitoring some form of significant ( to be determined more precisely) impact winter storm, Jan 16/17th. Moderate seems to be the upper limit - for now

[RDRY]

41 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yup ... What just saying the same thing to Seymour'  ...

I just can't help but think about the Boxing Day event in 2010.  That one was on fumes even mere 48 or 60 hours ahead and out of nowhere we were left to trust the NAM ( ETA?) ...which seemed to be the first to pick it back up.   But even then it was dubious because the NAM had ( and may still have) a NW bias over the western Atlantic as one of many in it's various idiotic charms.  Then the 06z Euro marched back... what?  and all the sudden, 12z runs start pouring in big event out of seemingly nowhere.

That was an event that had considerable presentation when in the deeper middle range but was lost for 2 or even 3 days...

My recollection was a GFS run that brought it back full force, which was then discarded for initialization errors.

[SouthCoastMA]

Let's face, most of you are expecting the euro to have this over my or ackwaves' noggin in 12 to 18 hours. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Let's face, most of you are expecting the euro to have this over my or ackwaves' noggin in 12 to 18 hours. 

I could see it going near our just outside of the BM, too...I just don't buy a clean whiff right now. It could end up a se MA JP, though.

[Typhoon Tip]

I posted this sequence below ( from the GFS to make the point -) in the NYC thread. I feel fairly confident the majority of sensitivity leading up to this event is coming down to this flow bifurcation phenomenon that is illustrated ... This handling appears to be the source/origin for the S/W in contention - there is likely either errors in sampling relative to either idea ... OR, the physics after the fact is exposing one or the other as having an an issue with ballast - how much recedes vs gets injected downstream ...

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[WinterWolf]

21 minutes ago, RDRY said:

My recollection was a GFS run that brought it back full force, which was then discarded for initialization errors.

Yes that’s how I remember it too…and it was discarded by NWS because of convective feedback errors they said. Lol. Then everything came on board and they had to count it in. 

[SouthCoastMA]

31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I could see it going near our just outside of the BM, too...I just don't buy a clean whiff right now. It could end up a se MA JP, though.

I agree, hard to buy the Euro. I'm leaning inside the benchmark close to Nantucket. I'd be surprised if the Euro doesn't course correct somewhat by 12z

[WinterWolf]

23 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I agree, hard to buy the Euro. I'm leaning inside the benchmark close to Nantucket. I'd be surprised if the Euro doesn't course correct somewhat by 12z

Especially if the GFS is a hit at 12z.  If the 12z shats the bed in 45 minutes, then we’ll have a different story. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

10 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I agree, hard to buy the Euro. I'm leaning inside the benchmark close to Nantucket. I'd be surprised if the Euro doesn't course correct somewhat by 12z

Getting kind of close for large jumps. Think it’s going to have to move a lot at 12z

[Typhoon Tip]

This may also help if interested...  I put this in the NY City thread - a bit of an extended evalution/more discrete, regarding the EPO relay of ...whatever is ultimately going to be so -

"....the N/stream additional S/W power at mid (500 mb) level  72hours diving S out of western Canada in the GFS that the Euro doesn't have - sort of resembles an 'intermediate jet stream' feature.  

The GFS phases ... which leads to more power getting relayed E than the Euro, which doesn't perform this phenomenon because it doesn't "see" that middle stream mechanical influence.

Here...

I just didn't want to get too detailed in the previous post .. but all this is ultimately coming from the complex handling over the EPO domain. What is actually going to get sent down river determines what's tumbling over the dam

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Getting kind of close for large jumps. Think it’s going to have to move a lot at 12z

The Euro isn’t like that anymore..it makes big jumps now. Not the same old stable girl she used to be. She’s a szchitso now. 

[dryslot]

58 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Let's face, most of you are expecting the euro to have this over my or ackwaves' noggin in 12 to 18 hours. 

I'm praying it will actually.

[Typhoon Tip]

ICON unlikely to hit it on this particular 12z run

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

ICON unlikely to hit it on this particular 12z run

It’s a hit, but weak sauce 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

ICON unlikely to hit it on this particular 12z run

It didn’t hit last night at 0z either. 

[Typhoon Tip]

This ICON run did exactly what I'm discussing... If you go back along it's recent run cycles, those that have the intermediate stream wind max --> phase and boom.  Those that don't... whiff or less.  

I feel pretty confident we've identified the gremlin here -

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

It didn’t hit last night at 0z either. 

I'm pretty sure I know why - been posting about it

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s a hit, but weak sauce 

That's pretty good. If you want a big hit, you'll probably enjoy rain with it. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

This ICON run did exactly what I'm discussing... If you go back along it's recent run cycles, those that have the intermediate stream wind max --> phase and boom.  Those that don't... whiff.  

I feel pretty confident we've identified the gremlin here -

So obviously that icon didn’t have that wind max involved in that run I take it, right? 

[Typhoon Tip]

yeah... this run of the ICON ( actually, I'm not sure I ultimately feel secure in talking like this model is worth it, but - ) may be like the "floor" event when sans a more substantive upstream phase as we've been discussing over the last hour.

It's not a bad solution... 3-5" er. Low end plowable

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So obviously that icon didn’t have that wind max involved in that run I take it, right? 

It's just missing it/or less in the same time and space, yeah.

Closer analysis ( because I like giving myself migraines apparently... ), it does have an intermediate region wind max at hour 54 though/ about 12 hours faster as a single run correction unto itself - it could be that this run just moved it ahead - that position change then lowers the proficiency of phasing and lends to an eventual "weak saucer" as an option. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's pretty good. If you want a big hit, you'll probably enjoy rain with it. 

yeah ha that's a good point.  through all of this... kind of needle threading the available cold air when there's limited +PP situated N of the region, huh -

[moneypitmike]

Write it off for a loss—my snowblower was just repaired.

[SouthCoastMA]

20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's pretty good. If you want a big hit, you'll probably enjoy rain with it. 

That still rains here 

Going to need a GFS like solution or some compromise with Euro to keep the snow locked to the coast

[UnitedWx]

7 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Write it off for a loss—my snowblower was just repaired.

Mine as well lol

[Spanks45]

So it looks like the GFS around 66 hrs has less of that windmax....so in theory it would less of a hit?

[Henry's Weather]

Ew

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

She gone on the gfs. Euro might be about to score 

[CoastalWx]

Looks fine with me 5 days out.

[ariof]

58 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

If the 12z shats the bed in 45 minutes, then we’ll have a different story. 

Well well well

[SouthCoastMA]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

She gone on the gfs. Euro might be about to score 

I'll take it