Michigander Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 GRR went with a Winter Storm Warning but they did include guidance on lake effect in their AFD: - Significant Lake Effect Snow Saturday Night into Sunday As the winter storm pulls away from the region on Saturday, deep moisture wrapping around the back side of the system and rapid Arctic air advection into the region will set the stage for impactful lake effect snow. The immediate transition to lake effect snow will result in little to no ability to recover from the winter storm impacting the region Friday into Saturday for at least the western half of Lower Michigan. Moisture depth for this lake effect event will be exceptionally high at 25k ft deep along with significant lift through the DGZ, occurring as 850mb temperatures crash to around -20C. Winds gusting 20-30 mph inland and around 40 mph at the coast will ensure areas of blowing and drifting of the powdery lake effect snow. We are expecting many of these impactful bands to push well inland across the state given low level flow of 30-35 kts. The NAM12`s orientation of lift in the DGZ combined with some surface wind convergence occurring as cold air wraps around the southern portion of Lake Michigan has the look of an I-96 to I-94 dominant band of snow and blowing snow, prolonging treacherous travel conditions across highways and interstates from Saturday night into Sunday afternoon. This is in addition to significant snow showers and impacts up and down the lakeshore region with no time to dig out from the outgoing winter storm. Model QPF over this 24-hr period (00z Sunday to 00z Monday) from the ECMWF as well as the NAM12 is ranging from 0.25"-0.50", which with snow ratios forecast to be 15:1 or a bit higher, would yield snowfall amounts of 4"-8" with localized amounts around 1 foot near and west of US 131. It should be stressed that accumulating snow will spread further inland than most lake effect events, potentially impacting areas such as Lansing with several inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metallica470 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Latest LOT snowfall map: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Hmm.. is that a Blizzard warning that i spy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, metallica470 said: Latest LOT snowfall map: Been a hot minute since I have cracked double digits. Let’s gooo 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Zoomed out a bit for context 2 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: Hmm.. is that a Blizzard warning that i spy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, metallica470 said: Latest LOT snowfall map: Jacking my call 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Really enjoying back to back storms with daytime snow. Seems like the last few years the majority of the snow locally fell overnight 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 39 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: Storm what are your thoughts for the area? Cautiously optimistic would be the phrase I'd use. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Hoping for an over performative storm for everyone 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Man.. that EPS is a Milwaukee crusher 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Cautiously optimistic would be the phrase I'd use. oddly quiet as of late. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Chicago crew - Skilling has a ton of content regarding this storm on his FB page 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 40 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: call looking $$$ been saving this one after i seen it on the road, for this message. 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 10 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: oddly quiet as of late. have been fairly busy unfortunately. would like to have been posting more, but just haven't had the time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 FWIW, GFS seems a touch south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imneversatisfied Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Looking like I could be in for a historic blizzard here in Alpena. Atleast a foot and 50mph winds. A storm of my dreams! Going to prepare tomorrow. Idk what to even expect for drifts! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Back to the bunker folks. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEILwxbo Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I've always been a big GFS fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Back to the bunker folks. nope.. nope. not doing that. that failed me last time . those blizzard warnings out west make a lot of sense now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, ChiTownSnow said: nope.. nope. not doing that. that failed me last time You didn’t believe hard enough. This bunker runs on weenie dreams and NAM clown maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said: love that run. On my way to Chicago now. I know the lake will affect accumulations but I still love seeing those numbers on the recent 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michigander Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 minutes ago, Imneversatisfied said: Looking like I could be in for a historic blizzard here in Alpena. Atleast a foot and 50mph winds. A storm of my dreams! Going to prepare tomorrow. Idk what to even expect for drifts! Enjoy it! Very surprised you don't have a blizz warning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, SchaumburgStormer said: You didn’t believe hard enough. This bunker runs on weenie dreams and NAM clown maps I'm all in. I actually never left lol I was just chillin in the back under the pong table. Does that mean I owe you like a week's rent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: that lil blob in the corner of se IN and sw OH is my only hope for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said: You didn’t believe hard enough. This bunker runs on weenie dreams and NAM clown maps Well in that case sign me up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 That run a a little better for the I275 corridor and points east in DTW area 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 The GFS continues to show that heavy snow band for Detroit-Toronto for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Well we have some consistency. Let’s get the ole king on board. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 On 1/9/2024 at 1:41 PM, sbnwx85 said: #TeamEuro #TeamGFS 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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