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Jan 11-13th Blizzard


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GRR went with a Winter Storm Warning but they did include guidance on lake effect in their AFD:

- Significant Lake Effect Snow Saturday Night into Sunday

As the winter storm pulls away from the region on Saturday, deep
moisture wrapping around the back side of the system and rapid
Arctic air advection into the region will set the stage for
impactful lake effect snow. The immediate transition to lake effect
snow will result in little to no ability to recover from the winter
storm impacting the region Friday into Saturday for at least the
western half of Lower Michigan.

Moisture depth for this lake effect event will be exceptionally high
at 25k ft deep along with significant lift through the DGZ,
occurring as 850mb temperatures crash to around -20C. Winds gusting
20-30 mph inland and around 40 mph at the coast will ensure areas of
blowing and drifting of the powdery lake effect snow. We are
expecting many of these impactful bands to push well inland across
the state given low level flow of 30-35 kts. The NAM12`s orientation
of lift in the DGZ combined with some surface wind convergence
occurring as cold air wraps around the southern portion of Lake
Michigan has the look of an I-96 to I-94 dominant band of snow and
blowing snow, prolonging treacherous travel conditions across
highways and interstates from Saturday night into Sunday afternoon.
This is in addition to significant snow showers and impacts up and
down the lakeshore region with no time to dig out from the outgoing
winter storm.

Model QPF over this 24-hr period (00z Sunday to 00z Monday) from the
ECMWF as well as the NAM12 is ranging from 0.25"-0.50", which with
snow ratios forecast to be 15:1 or a bit higher, would yield
snowfall amounts of 4"-8" with localized amounts around 1 foot near
and west of US 131. It should be stressed that accumulating snow
will spread further inland than most lake effect events, potentially
impacting areas such as Lansing with several inches.
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Just now, SchaumburgStormer said:

You didn’t believe hard enough. This bunker runs on weenie dreams and NAM clown maps

I'm all in. I actually never left lol I was just chillin in the back under the pong table. Does that mean I owe you like a week's rent?

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