Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming

[Terpeast]

I wonder if the trend on 1/4 is setting us up for the 1/7 system. I’ll be watching this closely

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

On the other hand, the Canadian is a total whiff. Vort seems to get shredded as an LP forms over the plains. GFS did that too for the first time this run, but the coastal seemed to win out. Would be curious what smart people make of it.

im guessing the hurricane it has in the 50 50 area might have something to do with that shredding

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, nj2va said:

No, wait let’s discuss if winter is actually over vs track an actual threat.

 

[SnowenOutThere]

19 minutes ago, snowfan said:

On the bright side, you’ve lived through our snowiest winter ever (to date) and not far removed from a 3 yr stretch where Dulles (closest to you?) averaged 30”. That’s not too common. 

Considering I don’t remember either I’m not sure if I’m really lucky for that or unlucky then again thank god I missed out on being part of the iPad kid horde. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Either way the gfs accomplishes my goal for a winter of seeing snow covered grass so I’ll take it 

[NorthArlington101]

I know we had this discussion yesterday about forum organization, but we could probably save some unpleasant conversations if we made a thread that covered discussion(s) for the 4th and 7th

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It gets shoved offshore, but makes it to us. @psuhoffman fringed to save the masses. 

Not bothered by that. It takes an identical track and similar local evolution to Feb 5 2010. (Not expecting the same results Feb 2010 stalled for 12 hours) The precip wouldn’t likely be that shunted given its STJ origins.  That’s a typical long range error. Why I get shown as fringed on these way more than it actually happens. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I know we had this discussion yesterday about forum organization, but we could probably save some unpleasant conversations if we made a thread that covered discussion(s) for the 4th and 7th

I think it’s hard to moderate a ton of storm threats. But I thought maybe people would be happy if we broke the generic long range pattern discussion stuff off. Had “long range pattern” and “long range threats” threads. So those who want to focus on a day 7 threat without hearing about what the day 15 long wave pattern looks like can be happy. 

[Terpeast]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I think it’s hard to moderate a ton of storm threats. But I thought maybe people would be happy if we broke the generic long range pattern discussion stuff off. Had “long range pattern” and “long range threats” threads. So those who want to focus on a day 7 threat without hearing about what the day 15 long wave pattern looks like can be happy. 

And it's worth noting that the 1/7 system has been way too warm at the surface for several runs the last few days. It's almost like we need the first system to go ape off the coast to bring colder air in. And that's what I noticed on the 12z gfs. Still needs ensemble support as well as the other op models.

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

im guessing the hurricane it has in the 50 50 area might have something to do with that shredding

It’s a delicate balance between the waves in front and behind. Guidance will bounce around a lot here. This isn’t a simple setup where nothing is running interference with the STJ wave and models can lock in 8 days out. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

And it's worth noting that the 1/7 system has been way too warm at the surface for several runs the last few days. It's almost like we need the first system to go ape off the coast to bring colder air in. And that's what I noticed on the 12z gfs. Still needs ensemble support as well as the other op models.

Definitely. Last night we were discussing the spacing and how it needs more room but unfortunately that room has to come on the back end. We need that 50/50 to go ape to be cold enough. 

[CAPE]

The shortwave is stronger/sharper, with just enough interaction at the right time with NS vorticity. Also a bit more separation from the 50/50-ish vortex.

 

[Shad]

all eyes on the euro......canadian didnt have much of anything for the 7th.....

[WinterWxLuvr]

Caveat Emptor

[osfan24]

Interesting that the January 10 system tries for a little front-end something. Doesn't happen but I just kinda wrote everything off after January 6/7. Maybe that will bear watching at some point.

[psuhoffman]

17 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The shortwave is stronger/sharper, with just enough interaction at the right time with NS vorticity. Also a bit more separation from the 50/50-ish vortex.

 

Over the last 24 hours the 50/50 actually trended stronger but so did the SW responsible for the threat and the western trough backed off a little creating more space and even some ridging out west as it’s approaching. Exactly the two trends we need to continue. 

[midatlanticweather]

32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Not bothered by that. It takes an identical track and similar local evolution to Feb 5 2010. (Not expecting the same results Feb 2010 stalled for 12 hours) The precip wouldn’t likely be that shunted given its STJ origins.  That’s a typical long range error. Why I get shown as fringed on these way more than it actually happens. 

Ya.. PSU Fringed is a good sign to me. Let's worry if this is real or a mirage! 

[JenkinsJinkies]

The Jan 13 warmup got pulled back on GFS. Now it's in the upper 40s for us instead of yesterday's run showing us pushing 60.

This is why we can't go on thermals more than 10 days out, it can change this fast.

 

But still, look how far into Canada the freeze line is.

[Ji]

Ya.. PSU Fringed is a good sign to me. Let's worry if this is real or a mirage! 

I’d be more worried if he wasn’t fringed. Then it’s Probably a New England threat

Dude fringed his way to 50 inches a few years ago and still complained lol

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Over the last 24 hours the 50/50 actually trended stronger but so did the SW responsible for the threat and the western trough backed off a little creating more space and even some ridging out west as it’s approaching. Exactly the two trends we need to continue. 

A strong 50-50 low is good, but the orientation/position is important. Improvement there on the 12z run. Also improvement out west. Both relatively subtle, but gained some spacing on both ends. To me the biggest difference has to do with the shortwave itself, resulting in a deeper surface low.

[Jebman]

52 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GFS trying to be incoming at 192 - snow spreading up through VA. SW VA getting hammered.

Posted that link couple pages back. Ninja'd.

[TSSN+]

[brooklynwx99]

pretty significant trend to increase blocking and a subsequent 50/50 ULL. this changes the entire synoptic setup and makes a colder coastal storm with legit confluence more likely. need to see the ensembles pick up on this

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Over the last 24 hours the 50/50 actually trended stronger but so did the SW responsible for the threat and the western trough backed off a little creating more space and even some ridging out west as it’s approaching. Exactly the two trends we need to continue. 

This is also an example of the limitations of long range forecasting. The subtle differences between those two looks can’t possibly show up on long range ensembles no matter how perfectly they get the basic pattern correct.  But they are the difference between whether this period we identified weeks ago produces snow or not.  Get the pattern first. Then still have to hope we get luck with the details on a specific synoptic threat once they come in range. 

[Terpeast]

Some trends from the GEFS I'm seeing:

Jan 4 - stronger high to the NW, but a bit more suppressed. This makes an amped all-rain solution less likely, but it can still miss us to the south....

 

... Unless we see the NS and SS phase a bit more. Not sure I'm seeing a trend with the ensembles due to smoothing, but maybe it's very slight? Seeing that NS wave dig in a bit more?

 

And for the Jan 7, noteworthy trend towards a stronger HP to the north with the SLP coming up a bit north.
 

[Ji]

@psuhoffmanthis would work right? 

 

[Jebman]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

pretty significant trend to increase blocking and a subsequent 50/50 ULL. this changes the entire synoptic setup and makes a colder coastal storm with legit confluence more likely. need to see the ensembles pick up on this

Now I see why you guys are staying up all night for model runs. Now, I'm guilty as charged. And, I am tired as fook.

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, Ji said:

I’d be more worried if he wasn’t fringed. Then it’s Probably a New England threat

Dude fringed his way to 50 inches a few years ago and still complained lol

Oh no you didn’t. I seem to remember someone whining in between all those HECSs in 2010 then when we missed on that threat in March said “it ruined the winter” to end that way. Who was that again???

Im just teasing ya and you’re right about me being fringed. We don’t want it north at this point. 

[winter_warlock]

This is definitely  something to watch. Been on  for a couple model runs bow. Still a week out but definitely  something to track . Hopeing it  makes the turn a lil more north in future runs..

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

57 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I wonder if the trend on 1/4 is setting us up for the 1/7 system. I’ll be watching this closely

But I thought we were supposed to skip actual threats in lieu of pattern disaster discussion for fantasy range? 

Yes, the 1/4 system looks like the trend setter here.  Becomes a 50/50 low and there is actual ridging in the NAO domain (not a WAR). This is exactly what we need and what we work with most of the time in Ninos...windows of opportunity. Many of us got our hopes up with those sustained looks for jan/Feb on the weeklies earlier this month, but sustained it proba ly won't be. I will take my chances with transient  windows. At least we will have opportunities unlike last year.