CoastalWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 19 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: If we have a decent month…I don’t really care if we don’t make up everything. Some folks put way too much pressure on this type of stuff. For those that enjoy making outlooks on this long term stuff, I can get their theoretical concern due to their calls. But otherwise, it’s crazy to worry about not making up whatever ground might be lost. Winter is brutal when it's 40 and rain for weeks. And personally I could use a good winter to soothe the soul. Nearing 2 years without a 4" storm. This has been no different vs last year so far. Just sucks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looking at climo data, we are still pretty much on pace with 1958 if Boston could grab like 3" today. This is the time of year where I begin to weight climo data more heavily than the outlook....gotta start to look at the scoreboard after halftime. Problem is, I need to be wrong about March...my window does run into very early March, so maybe that could work. We need that great PAC look for Feb to hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Winter is brutal when it's 40 and rain for weeks. And personally I could use a good winter to soothe the soul. Nearing 2 years without a 4" storm. This has been no different vs last year so far. Just sucks. I honestly am rooting your area now...had my fun. Just don't get carried away and grab 3' while I get 12" of exhaust. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 January 1966 had about 10.5" in Boston at this point of the month....one damn good event there is all I would need to feel good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 18 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I commute from Raynham to Wilmington most days. I’d rather gouge my eyeballs than make that commute, that’s nuts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looking at climo data, we are still pretty much on pace with 1958 if Boston could grab like 3" today. This is the time of year where I begin to weight climo data more heavily than the outlook....gotta start to look at the scoreboard after halftime. For a bit I thought Bos had a decent shot to sneak over 40 inches, but they are looking cooked now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, Brewbeer said: I’d rather gouge my eyeballs than make that commute, that’s nuts I have heard coming into Boston from the south is even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Winter is brutal when it's 40 and rain for weeks. And personally I could use a good winter to soothe the soul. Nearing 2 years without a 4" storm. This has been no different vs last year so far. Just sucks. I understand the feeling. I more meant the pressure of worrying about trying to make up ground. I do understand the “soothe the soul thought.” Actually this steady snow here, and snow covered roads with cold temps is helping currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, Brewbeer said: I’d rather gouge my eyeballs than make that commute, that’s nuts I prefer sticking needles in my eyes but whatevs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, George001 said: For a bit I thought Bos had a decent shot to sneak over 40 inches, but they are looking cooked now. I'm hoping they stay below 22 inches. That would clinch the mark for the crappiest back to back years in history. If it's going to suck, suck bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I have heard coming into Boston from the south is even worse. 25 years ago I was commuting from Needham to Woburn and hated it so much I moved to western Mass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, George001 said: For a bit I thought Bos had a decent shot to sneak over 40 inches, but they are looking cooked now. I think @donsutherland1may have the right idea....he had like 27" at Boston. But the big question is what @Donald Sutherlands Eyebrowthinks? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its very frustrating when you nail certain aspects of the season, like blocking, several months out, but the atmosphere just seeks out ways to not snow, anyway. December was a brutal Pacific, sure....but this is just brutal luck. There is a zero percent chance to forecast whether PV lobes are going to phase or not when making forecasts 2 months out. I'm not saying this to pick on you....but I think people take the idea too seriously that seasonal snowfall forecasts in New England can be skillfully predicted to anything closer than about a 20-30 inch range. I applaud people for trying, but it's so much harder than temperatures because there are like a thousand more variables for snowfall than forecasting temps. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, Brewbeer said: 25 years ago I was commuting from Needham to Woburn and hated it so much I moved to western Mass. Yea, coming from the west and south is even worse than the north, I think...or so I have heard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There is a zero percent chance to forecast whether PV lobes are going to phase or not when making forecasts 2 months out. I'm not saying this to pick on you....but I think people take the idea too seriously that seasonal snowfall forecasts in New England can be skillfully predicted to anything closer than about a 20-30 inch range. I applaud people for trying, but it's so much harder than temperatures because there are like a thousand more variables for snowfall than forecasting temps. I realize this, but I think there is something to be said for picking out patterns that either fail to succeed in produce...and raindance was adamant that this season would fail here not due to temps, but just kind of a porking. I respect that if it plays out. I may end up wishing that I really did copy him hahahahha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 5 minutes ago, Brewbeer said: I’d rather gouge my eyeballs than make that commute, that’s nuts 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I have heard coming into Boston from the south is even worse. Some days better than others. I usually go around the city on 95. 93 was horrific when I reached exit 35, really coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Winter is brutal when it's 40 and rain for weeks. And personally I could use a good winter to soothe the soul. Nearing 2 years without a 4" storm. This has been no different vs last year so far. Just sucks. Can’t you plan 1 or two winter getaways to somewhere like lake Winnie or VT NH for school vaca or weekends or does nobody else care that you simply want to see some winter . Just take Bryce get a hotel and put him in ski lessons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Can’t you plan 1 or two winter getaways to somewhere like lake Winnie or VT NH for school vaca or weekends or does nobody else care that you simply want to see some winter . Just take Bryce get a hotel and put him in ski lessons You should establish a business counseling married guys on how to escape lol 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think @donsutherland1may have the right idea....he had like 27" at Boston. But the big question is what @Donald Sutherlands Eyebrowthinks? Honestly I think Boston’s looking at another ratter (below 20 inches). The MJO is going into the warm phases and the blocking is breaking down. Yeah we got unlucky with this favorable window, but this winter so far has been 5 weeks of well AN temps and 1 week of a favorable pattern that we whiffed on, and then it is going to get warm again. I hope I’m wrong, but it has been a complete non winter so far, +5 AN temps and well below normal snow. The only winter that started this poorly and ended up good was 2012-2013, and it took a historic blizzard to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I realize this, but I think there is something to be said for picking out patterns that either fail or succeed in producing...and raindance was adamant that this season would fail here not due to temps, but just kind of a porking. I respect that if it plays out. I may end up wishing that I really did copy him hahahahha Sure, but whats the mechanism and why should we believe that it is predictable and not just like playing roulette? You win some and lose some....but is there any skill involved? Like if we miss 3 KUs by a hair, was that "skill" or not? OR what if we don't sniff anything big for the next month and then get a 35-40" juggernaut dumped on our head February 22nd? Was the crappy snow forecast a good one, but they got unlucky that a HECS happened late in the season to make verification look bad? The advantage gambler in me always tries to parse out what was skilled vs random noise....and I haven't seen evidence to the former on seasonal snowfall forecasts around here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Can’t you plan 1 or two winter getaways to somewhere like lake Winnie or VT NH for school vaca or weekends or does nobody else care that you simply want to see some winter . Just take Bryce get a hotel and put him in ski lessons I probably will in Feb if things don't improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 I’m going to disagree that temps haven’t been an issue. BOS finished Dec around +5 and Jan so far has been around +5 as well. That’s a bad pattern, it has been 5 weeks of garbage and a 1 week favorable window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, George001 said: Honestly I think Boston’s looking at another ratter (below 20 inches). The MJO is going into the warm phases and the blocking is breaking down. Yeah we got unlucky with this favorable window, but this winter so far has been 5 weeks of well AN temps and 1 week of a favorable pattern that we whiffed on, and then it is going to get warm again. I hope I’m wrong, but it has been a complete non winter so far, +5 AN temps and well below normal snow. The only winter that started this poorly and ended up good was 2012-2013, and it took a historic blizzard to do that. I think that warm stretch will be pretty transient....the pace of the MJO has been under modeled all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Sure, but whats the mechanism and why should we believe that it is predictable and not just like playing roulette? You win some and lose some....but is there any skill involved? Like if we miss 3 KUs by a hair, was that "skill" or not? OR what if we don't sniff anything big for the next month and then get a 35-40" juggernaut dumped on our head February 22nd? Was the crappy snow forecast a good one, but they got unlucky that a HECS happened late in the season to make verification look bad? The advantage gambler in me always tries to parse out what was skilled vs random noise....and I haven't seen evidence to the former on seasonal snowfall forecasts around here. Yea, part of the fun in it...same with sports. Skill has something to do with it, but at the end of the day you live and die by the bounce of the ball/puck. Once the buzzer sounds and the clock strikes "April", you look to the scoreboard. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, George001 said: I’m going to disagree that temps haven’t been an issue. BOS finished Dec around +5 and Jan so far has been around +5 as well. That’s a bad pattern, it has been 5 weeks of garbage and a 1 week favorable window. Temps have been an issue for the areas that have been porked . Inside 128 to 95 corridor and SE didn’t miss out on QPF the BL killed ‘em on the biggie that others got but it’s Been just serviceable enough N or W of 128 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, George001 said: I’m going to disagree that temps haven’t been an issue. BOS finished Dec around +5 and Jan so far has been around +5 as well. That’s a bad pattern, it has been 5 weeks of garbage and a 1 week favorable window. I mean the season in the aggregate when all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Temps have been an issue for the areas that have been porked . Inside 128 to 95 corridor and SE Yea, the first half of winter was warmer than everyone imagined....including Raindance and probably Omega if he's being truthful...never published anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, part of the fun in it...same with sports. Skill has something to do with it, but at the end of the day you live and die by the bounce of the ball/puck. See, I'm viewing it less skillful than that on snowfall...I'm not sure there's much on a seasonal forecast level....I'm talking just snow, not temp forecasts where at least some skill has been demonstrated by good LR forecasters. The best teams in sports can win 70% of the time or so....so there's a clear skill element there. Nobody can forecast seasonal snowfall even close to that level of skill. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 In the midst of a very nice snowstorm. Plus 4 looking good. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I mean the season in the aggregate when all is said and done. Fair enough, If we finish like +2 AN or something and still end up below 20 inches at BOS, it would imply we got some bad luck in a favorable Feb-Mar pattern. Since we are +5 right now, it would need to cool down quite a bit in Feb and Mar to prevent this season from ending up a full blown torch like last winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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