LibertyBell Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 36 minutes ago, bluewave said: It almost happened in 2010 and 2011. But those years had droughts in the East. We have been very wet since then. So probably not possible without a drought. Remember, October 2019 had a flash drought which boosted our area to mid 90s. We have a much higher population and electric demand than areas of the US that typically experience 110°+. So they might start rolling blackouts to preserve the grid until demand drops off enough. Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2011Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 108 NY MINEOLA COOP 108 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 107 NJ HARRISON COOP 107 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 107 NJ RINGWOOD COOP 106 NY MOLLOY CERCOM COOP 105 Data for October 1, 2019 through October 31, 2019Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 96 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 95 NJ HARRISON COOP 95 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 95 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 95 It's interesting about 2011 though, wasn't that one of our wettest years on record? Did most of that rainfall happen after we already had the big heat? That 108 degrees at Mineola is absolutely wild-- was that the highest temperature ever recorded anywhere on Long Island, Chris? So I could envision 105+ heat happening in this way Winter is usually wet so that would be hard to bypass. But let's say we have a dry spring which we've had the last couple of years. So warm and dry beginning in April and lasting through at least July. We missed it by one month last year because we had a warm and dry April-June (and the temperatures would have been higher in June were it not for all the wildfire smoke; we did hit 90+ on back to back days in April.) We started getting wet again in July, but if that could have just been pushed back one month to August and we didn't have the wet July, I think we could have had a chance at 105+ in July. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 34 minutes ago, bluewave said: It almost happened in 2010 and 2011. But those years had droughts in the East. We have been very wet since then. So probably not possible without a drought. Remember, October 2019 had a flash drought which boosted our area to mid 90s. We have a much higher population and electric demand than areas of the US that typically experience 110°+. So they might start rolling blackouts to preserve the grid until demand drops off enough. Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2011Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 108 NY MINEOLA COOP 108 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 107 NJ HARRISON COOP 107 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 107 NJ RINGWOOD COOP 106 NY MOLLOY CERCOM COOP 105 Data for October 1, 2019 through October 31, 2019Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 96 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 95 NJ HARRISON COOP 95 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 95 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 95 This was absolutely wild in October 2019, I think we had a heat index of 100 on this day too? Was this the latest we have ever hit 95 and also our latest heat index of 100 too? I see NYC isn't listed here, was Central Park again being influenced by the foliage, Chris? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 I am so sick of this weather… It’s like Nova Scotia on a bad day in July. Terrible. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 41 cloudy , fog, with some breaks. Next up rain later tonight / tomorrow 0.50 - 1.00 for most. Exiting storm pulls trough down into the Northeast so colder 1/30 into the first week of Feb. Dry out a bit Tue - Thu with some sun. Interesting pattern which looks to turn busy with potential cut off lows into the end of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 Records: Highs: EWR: 69 (1974) NYC: 69 (1916) LGA: 66 (1974) Lows: EWR: -2 (1994) NYC: -1 (1927) LGA: 0 (1994) Historical: 1772 - The "Washington and Jefferson Snowstorm" occurred. George Washington reported three feet of snow at Mount Vernon, and Thomas Jefferson recorded about three feet at Monticello. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1922: On this date through the 29th, a significant snowstorm struck the East Coast from South Carolina to southeastern Massachusetts. Washington, DC, reported 28 inches of snow. The heavy snow on the Knickerbocker Theater's flat roof put a significant strain on the structure. On the evening of the 28th, during a showing of the silent comedy "Get-Rich-Quick Wallingford," the building collapsed, killing 98 people and injuring 130 others. 1966 - Oswego, NY, was in the midst of a five day lake effect storm which left the town buried under 102 inches of snow. (David Ludlum) 1967 - Residents of Chicago, IL, began to dig out from a storm which produced 23 inches of snow in 29 hours. The snow paralyzed the city and suburbs for days, and business losses were enormous. (David Ludlum) 1987 - A powerful storm moving into the western U.S. produced 13 inches of snow at Daggett Pass NV, and 16 inches in the Cascade Mountains of Oregon. Winds gusted to 63 mph at Reno NV, and wind gusts in Oregon exceeded 80 mph. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - The nation got a breather from winter storms, however, cold arctic air settled into the southeastern U.S. Hollywood FL reported a record low reading of 39 degrees. (National Weather Summary) 1989 - The last half of January was bitterly cold over most of Alaska. Nearly thirty stations established all-time record low temperatures. On this date Tanana reported a low of -76 degrees. Daily highs of -66 degrees were reported at Chandalar Lake on the 22nd, and at Ambler on the 26th. (The Weather Channel) 1989 - Low pressure in north central Alaska continued to direct air across northern Siberia and the edges of the Arctic Circle into the state. The temperature at Fairbanks remained colder than 40 degrees below zero for the eighth day in a row. Lows of 68 below at Galena, 74 below at McGrath, and 76 below at Tanana, were new records for the date. Wind chill readings were colder than 100 degrees below zero. (National Weather Summary) 1989: Bitter cold air gripped most of Alaska during January 1989. Tanana, near Fairbanks, saw a low temperature of 76 degrees below zero on this day. The high for the day was 60 degrees below zero. With an average temperature of 68 degrees below zero, Tanana saw an average temperature of nearly sixty degrees below normal. McGrath, Alaska, recorded a wind chill of -100°F. This is the lowest wind chill ever observed in the U.S. at a populated location. 1990 - Another in a series of cold fronts brought high winds to the northwestern U.S., and more heavy snow to some of the higher elevations. The series of vigorous cold fronts crossing the area between the 23rd and the 27th of the month produced up to 60 inches of snow in the Cascade Mountains of Washington State. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2005 - Month-to-date snowfall at Boston Logan International Airport totaled 43.1 inches, making January the snowiest month on record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 1 hour ago, the_other_guy said: I am so sick of this weather… It’s like Nova Scotia on a bad day in July. Terrible. Beauty of a spring day today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 59 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Records: Highs: EWR: 69 (1974) NYC: 69 (1916) LGA: 66 (1974) Lows: EWR: -2 (1994) NYC: -1 (1927) LGA: 0 (1994) Historical: 1772 - The "Washington and Jefferson Snowstorm" occurred. George Washington reported three feet of snow at Mount Vernon, and Thomas Jefferson recorded about three feet at Monticello. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1922: On this date through the 29th, a significant snowstorm struck the East Coast from South Carolina to southeastern Massachusetts. Washington, DC, reported 28 inches of snow. The heavy snow on the Knickerbocker Theater's flat roof put a significant strain on the structure. On the evening of the 28th, during a showing of the silent comedy "Get-Rich-Quick Wallingford," the building collapsed, killing 98 people and injuring 130 others. 1966 - Oswego, NY, was in the midst of a five day lake effect storm which left the town buried under 102 inches of snow. (David Ludlum) 1967 - Residents of Chicago, IL, began to dig out from a storm which produced 23 inches of snow in 29 hours. The snow paralyzed the city and suburbs for days, and business losses were enormous. (David Ludlum) 1987 - A powerful storm moving into the western U.S. produced 13 inches of snow at Daggett Pass NV, and 16 inches in the Cascade Mountains of Oregon. Winds gusted to 63 mph at Reno NV, and wind gusts in Oregon exceeded 80 mph. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - The nation got a breather from winter storms, however, cold arctic air settled into the southeastern U.S. Hollywood FL reported a record low reading of 39 degrees. (National Weather Summary) 1989 - The last half of January was bitterly cold over most of Alaska. Nearly thirty stations established all-time record low temperatures. On this date Tanana reported a low of -76 degrees. Daily highs of -66 degrees were reported at Chandalar Lake on the 22nd, and at Ambler on the 26th. (The Weather Channel) 1989 - Low pressure in north central Alaska continued to direct air across northern Siberia and the edges of the Arctic Circle into the state. The temperature at Fairbanks remained colder than 40 degrees below zero for the eighth day in a row. Lows of 68 below at Galena, 74 below at McGrath, and 76 below at Tanana, were new records for the date. Wind chill readings were colder than 100 degrees below zero. (National Weather Summary) 1989: Bitter cold air gripped most of Alaska during January 1989. Tanana, near Fairbanks, saw a low temperature of 76 degrees below zero on this day. The high for the day was 60 degrees below zero. With an average temperature of 68 degrees below zero, Tanana saw an average temperature of nearly sixty degrees below normal. McGrath, Alaska, recorded a wind chill of -100°F. This is the lowest wind chill ever observed in the U.S. at a populated location. 1990 - Another in a series of cold fronts brought high winds to the northwestern U.S., and more heavy snow to some of the higher elevations. The series of vigorous cold fronts crossing the area between the 23rd and the 27th of the month produced up to 60 inches of snow in the Cascade Mountains of Washington State. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2005 - Month-to-date snowfall at Boston Logan International Airport totaled 43.1 inches, making January the snowiest month on record. so this was another storm that didn't drop anything here because it was suppressed: 1922: On this date through the 29th, a significant snowstorm struck the East Coast from South Carolina to southeastern Massachusetts. Washington, DC, reported 28 inches of snow. The heavy snow on the Knickerbocker Theater's flat roof put a significant strain on the structure. On the evening of the 28th, during a showing of the silent comedy "Get-Rich-Quick Wallingford," the building collapsed, killing 98 people and injuring 130 others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 18 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Beauty of a spring day today if the sun comes out yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: Records: Highs: EWR: 69 (1974) NYC: 69 (1916) LGA: 66 (1974) Lows: EWR: -2 (1994) NYC: -1 (1927) LGA: 0 (1994) Historical: 1772 - The "Washington and Jefferson Snowstorm" occurred. George Washington reported three feet of snow at Mount Vernon, and Thomas Jefferson recorded about three feet at Monticello. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1922: On this date through the 29th, a significant snowstorm struck the East Coast from South Carolina to southeastern Massachusetts. Washington, DC, reported 28 inches of snow. The heavy snow on the Knickerbocker Theater's flat roof put a significant strain on the structure. On the evening of the 28th, during a showing of the silent comedy "Get-Rich-Quick Wallingford," the building collapsed, killing 98 people and injuring 130 others. 1966 - Oswego, NY, was in the midst of a five day lake effect storm which left the town buried under 102 inches of snow. (David Ludlum) 1967 - Residents of Chicago, IL, began to dig out from a storm which produced 23 inches of snow in 29 hours. The snow paralyzed the city and suburbs for days, and business losses were enormous. (David Ludlum) 1987 - A powerful storm moving into the western U.S. produced 13 inches of snow at Daggett Pass NV, and 16 inches in the Cascade Mountains of Oregon. Winds gusted to 63 mph at Reno NV, and wind gusts in Oregon exceeded 80 mph. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - The nation got a breather from winter storms, however, cold arctic air settled into the southeastern U.S. Hollywood FL reported a record low reading of 39 degrees. (National Weather Summary) 1989 - The last half of January was bitterly cold over most of Alaska. Nearly thirty stations established all-time record low temperatures. On this date Tanana reported a low of -76 degrees. Daily highs of -66 degrees were reported at Chandalar Lake on the 22nd, and at Ambler on the 26th. (The Weather Channel) 1989 - Low pressure in north central Alaska continued to direct air across northern Siberia and the edges of the Arctic Circle into the state. The temperature at Fairbanks remained colder than 40 degrees below zero for the eighth day in a row. Lows of 68 below at Galena, 74 below at McGrath, and 76 below at Tanana, were new records for the date. Wind chill readings were colder than 100 degrees below zero. (National Weather Summary) 1989: Bitter cold air gripped most of Alaska during January 1989. Tanana, near Fairbanks, saw a low temperature of 76 degrees below zero on this day. The high for the day was 60 degrees below zero. With an average temperature of 68 degrees below zero, Tanana saw an average temperature of nearly sixty degrees below normal. McGrath, Alaska, recorded a wind chill of -100°F. This is the lowest wind chill ever observed in the U.S. at a populated location. 1990 - Another in a series of cold fronts brought high winds to the northwestern U.S., and more heavy snow to some of the higher elevations. The series of vigorous cold fronts crossing the area between the 23rd and the 27th of the month produced up to 60 inches of snow in the Cascade Mountains of Washington State. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2005 - Month-to-date snowfall at Boston Logan International Airport totaled 43.1 inches, making January the snowiest month on record. so this was the second arctic outbreak in January 1994 that dropped NYC to 0F degrees...... and the temp rose all throughout the day until reaching 32F (or 0C) at midnight and then a raging southeaster the next day with 55 mph winds and temps in the mid 50s lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 37 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: so this was the second arctic outbreak in January 1994 that dropped NYC to 0F degrees...... and the temp rose all throughout the day until reaching 32F (or 0C) at midnight and then a raging southeaster the next day with 55 mph winds and temps in the mid 50s lol Yes between the 15 - 21st and then 26 - 27. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 THE SUN HAS COME OUT! YAY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 SUN!!!! Oh how I missed you, you beautiful yellow thing. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 Trying to break through but stingy clouds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Based off current snowfall rates the last 750 days this is meant to be a 46 year snowfall projection. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 14 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Trying to break through but stingy clouds. Why has it been so cloudy this month? They say it's very rainy in strong el ninos, but aren't we in a very atypical el nino? So therefore, we should have more sunshine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Why has it been so cloudy this month? They say it's very rainy in strong el ninos, but aren't we in a very atypical el nino? So therefore, we should have more sunshine! We've been in an excessively cloudy period since about June. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 4 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said: Lock it in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 Don, I posted (as PeterOD) on your X file, "did not know they had X in 1888." But that map could actually bust in the other direction where it shows zero snow in NC and s.e. VA. Well, the DCA new record of 80 or 81 would of course have to park over top of the second highest temp of record in Jan (79 on same date in 1950) instead of blowing away some useless nondescript record. I hate when that happens. And it does happen ... ... So I took a look in my NYC files, this is the "top 15" of snubbed records that deserve a spot: __ Robbed of a Record Top 15 __ Rank __ Days (/20) __ Details t1. ___ (17.5/20) ___ July 21, 1930, 1980 t1991 broken or denied by 1977 (104F) t1. ___ (17.5/20) ___ Nov 15, 1973 (77F) broken by 1993 (80F) 3. ___ (16.5/20) __ Dec 4 1982 (72) lost record to 74F in 1998. 4. ___ (15.5/20) ___ Sep 21, 1914 (94) denied by 1895 (95F). 5. ___ (15/20) ____ Feb 16, 2023 (70) denied by 1954 (71F). 6. ___ (14.5/20) __ Aug 9, 1949 (100) broken by 2001 (103F). t7 ___ (14/20) ___ Apr 17 1976 (91) lost record to 96F in 2002. t7 ___ (14/20) ___ Apr 18 2002 (91) denied by 96F in 1976. 9. ___ (13.5/20) __Nov 1, 1974 (81) denied by 84F in 1950. t10 ___ (13/20) ___ Apr 7 1929 (89) lost record to 92F in 2010. t10 ___ (13/20) ___ Apr 8 1929 (88) lost record to 90F in 1991. 12. ___ (12.83/20) ___ Feb 15, 1954 (69) denied by 1949 (73F) 13. ___ (12.67/20) ___ Jan 14, 2005 (66F) was not a record (70F 1932). 14. ___ (11.67/20) ___ Jan 12, 2017 (66F) lost out to 70F in 2020. 15. ___ (11.5/20) ____ Aug 27, 1953/73 (98F) denied by 1948 (100F) The list will be checked in future, there are numerous cases just outside this top 15 in the 9-11 range. (List is objectively generated by considering how many days among the 20 on either side of the lost or unclaimed record the "snubbed record" would be a daily record -- that is the meaning of the number in brackets. A tie is counted by its decimal equivalent (0.5 or 0.33) as a tie created by its inclusion. The weakest records by number broken within ten days either side are: Weakest daily records Rank __ Days (/20) __ Details 1. ___ (0/20) ___ 56F Feb 7, 2020 (lowest daily record) 2. ___ (0/20) ___ 58F Dec 19, 1899 t1931 is second lowest daily record (tied with case below) 3. ___ (0/20) ___ 58F Jan 15, 1995 is tied second lowest daily record (tied with above case) 4. ___ (0/20) ___ 88F May 14, 1900 is lowest since May 1, 2001 (87F). 5. ___ (0/20) ___ 93F June 12, 1933, 1973, 2017 is lowest after 92F for May 18. 6. ___ (0/20) ___ 92F Aug 23, 1916, lower than all records until tie Sep 15th, 91F Sep 18th. t7. ___(0.5/20) ___ 65F Mar 3, 1991 lowest after Feb 14 (62F). Tied 65F Feb 26, 1890 (t7) 9. ___ (1/20) ___ 59F Feb 2, 1988 would only beat #1 above. 10. ___ (1/20) ___ 60F Jan 10, 1876 would only beat #3 above. 11. ___ (1/20) ___ 96F June 28, 1969, 1991 (beats only 95F June 18) 12. ___ (1/20) ___ 71F Nov 17, 1953 (beats only 67F on Nov 26) 13. ___ (1/20) ___ 67F Nov 26, 1946 (beats only 66F on Dec 2, 1970) Quite a few records score 1.5 or 2.0 in this regard. It should be noted that "shoulder season" records are at a disadvantage as seasonal averages fall or rise. Even so, a few of these have entered the list. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 This is a very stubborn airmass. Im up in Lake Placid, and while there is plenty of snow on the ground about 40 miles north of Albany, it is still above freezing after sunset and has been for most of the past 4 days. Just a shitty airmass in what has been shitty winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 Islip is getting very close to its cloudiest January on record using 9am observations. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=45&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=ISP&hour=9&year=2024&month=1&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 In her, "In the bleak midwinter," 19th Century English poet Christina Rossetti wrote: In the bleak midwinter, frosty wind made moan, Earth stood hard as iron, water like a stone; Snow had fallen, snow on snow, snow on snow, In the bleak midwinter, long ago. In the northern Mid-Atlantic region, the kind of cold and snow that inspired Rossetti is nowhere to be found. That will remain the case therough the remainder of January. A storm will bring additional rain to the region late tonight into early Monday. The rain could mix with wet snow tomorrow morning and then end as a period of wet snow or flurries in New York City tomorrow night or Monday morning. Little or no accumulation is likely in New York City and Newark. Accumulating snow is likely well north and west of New York City and across central New England and in higher elevations. The remainder of January will likely wind up generally warmer than normal with the exception of perhaps a transient shot of cold. No strong Arctic shots are likely. As a result, January will wind up as a warmer than normal month and Winter 2023-24 will become yet another warmer than normal winter in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The generally mild conditions will likely continue through the first week of February with only brief interruptions. The second week of February could see the evolution toward a sustained colder pattern. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around January 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.92°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event has recently peaked and will continue to fade. The SOI was -3.29 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.981 today. On January 25 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.390 (RMM). The January 24-adjusted amplitude was 2.354 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 36.6° (2.9° above normal). 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 28, 2024 Share Posted January 28, 2024 This January is another example of how the La Niña background state of recent years can emerge even during a borderline super El Niño. It’s the result of the record IO to WPAC SSTs focusing the forcing closer to where we would expect to see during a La Niña. So we get a Southeast ridge pattern with 80° record warmth in DC. It’s an interesting combo with such a strong El Niño STJ in place. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 28, 2024 Share Posted January 28, 2024 Week ahead numbers: Cooler than the prior week but a snowy outcome appears unlikely based on those numbers and forecast drier pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 28, 2024 Share Posted January 28, 2024 39/39 and rain already 0.80 in the bucket. Rain lingers throughout the day. Dries out monday but wont fully clear out till maybe Wed. Beyond there colder open to Feb with trough into the northeast before moderating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 28, 2024 Share Posted January 28, 2024 9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Week ahead numbers: Cooler than the prior week but a snowy outcome appears unlikely based on those numbers and forecast drier pattern. at least it will be sunny after Monday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 28, 2024 Share Posted January 28, 2024 Just now, SACRUS said: 39/39 and rain already 0.80 in the bucket. Rain lingers throughout the day. Dries out monday but wont fully clear out till maybe Wed. Beyond there colder open to Feb with trough into the northeast before moderating. Hopefully we'll clear out by Tuesday Tony, seeing the sun yesterday was so nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 28, 2024 Share Posted January 28, 2024 54 minutes ago, bluewave said: This January is another example of how the La Niña background state of recent years can emerge even during a borderline super El Niño. It’s the result of the record IO to WPAC SSTs focusing the forcing closer to where we would expect to see during a La Niña. So we get a Southeast ridge pattern with 80° record warmth in DC. It’s an interesting combo with such a strong El Niño STJ in place. Chris what's the reason for the La Nina background state? Would you say climate change is causing the western PAC and IO to warm up much more quickly and that's what's triggering it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 28, 2024 Share Posted January 28, 2024 34.2 and a 50/50 mix of rain and snow. So much precip already wasted. So close and so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 28, 2024 Share Posted January 28, 2024 14 hours ago, Roger Smith said: Don, I posted (as PeterOD) on your X file, "did not know they had X in 1888." But that map could actually bust in the other direction where it shows zero snow in NC and s.e. VA. Well, the DCA new record of 80 or 81 would of course have to park over top of the second highest temp of record in Jan (79 on same date in 1950) instead of blowing away some useless nondescript record. I hate when that happens. And it does happen ... ... So I took a look in my NYC files, this is the "top 15" of snubbed records that deserve a spot: __ Robbed of a Record Top 15 __ Rank __ Days (/20) __ Details t1. ___ (17.5/20) ___ July 21, 1930, 1980 t1991 broken or denied by 1977 (104F) t1. ___ (17.5/20) ___ Nov 15, 1973 (77F) broken by 1993 (80F) 3. ___ (16.5/20) __ Dec 4 1982 (72) lost record to 74F in 1998. 4. ___ (15.5/20) ___ Sep 21, 1914 (94) denied by 1895 (95F). 5. ___ (15/20) ____ Feb 16, 2023 (70) denied by 1954 (71F). 6. ___ (14.5/20) __ Aug 9, 1949 (100) broken by 2001 (103F). t7 ___ (14/20) ___ Apr 17 1976 (91) lost record to 96F in 2002. t7 ___ (14/20) ___ Apr 18 2002 (91) denied by 96F in 1976. 9. ___ (13.5/20) __Nov 1, 1974 (81) denied by 84F in 1950. t10 ___ (13/20) ___ Apr 7 1929 (89) lost record to 92F in 2010. t10 ___ (13/20) ___ Apr 8 1929 (88) lost record to 90F in 1991. 12. ___ (12.83/20) ___ Feb 15, 1954 (69) denied by 1949 (73F) 13. ___ (12.67/20) ___ Jan 14, 2005 (66F) was not a record (70F 1932). 14. ___ (11.67/20) ___ Jan 12, 2017 (66F) lost out to 70F in 2020. 15. ___ (11.5/20) ____ Aug 27, 1953/73 (98F) denied by 1948 (100F) The list will be checked in future, there are numerous cases just outside this top 15 in the 9-11 range. (List is objectively generated by considering how many days among the 20 on either side of the lost or unclaimed record the "snubbed record" would be a daily record -- that is the meaning of the number in brackets. A tie is counted by its decimal equivalent (0.5 or 0.33) as a tie created by its inclusion. The weakest records by number broken within ten days either side are: Weakest daily records Rank __ Days (/20) __ Details 1. ___ (0/20) ___ 56F Feb 7, 2020 (lowest daily record) 2. ___ (0/20) ___ 58F Dec 19, 1899 t1931 is second lowest daily record (tied with case below) 3. ___ (0/20) ___ 58F Jan 15, 1995 is tied second lowest daily record (tied with above case) 4. ___ (0/20) ___ 88F May 14, 1900 is lowest since May 1, 2001 (87F). 5. ___ (0/20) ___ 93F June 12, 1933, 1973, 2017 is lowest after 92F for May 18. 6. ___ (0/20) ___ 92F Aug 23, 1916, lower than all records until tie Sep 15th, 91F Sep 18th. t7. ___(0.5/20) ___ 65F Mar 3, 1991 lowest after Feb 14 (62F). Tied 65F Feb 26, 1890 (t7) 9. ___ (1/20) ___ 59F Feb 2, 1988 would only beat #1 above. 10. ___ (1/20) ___ 60F Jan 10, 1876 would only beat #3 above. 11. ___ (1/20) ___ 96F June 28, 1969, 1991 (beats only 95F June 18) 12. ___ (1/20) ___ 71F Nov 17, 1953 (beats only 67F on Nov 26) 13. ___ (1/20) ___ 67F Nov 26, 1946 (beats only 66F on Dec 2, 1970) Quite a few records score 1.5 or 2.0 in this regard. It should be noted that "shoulder season" records are at a disadvantage as seasonal averages fall or rise. Even so, a few of these have entered the list. Thanks. I'm not on there all the time. I've followed you. The above is an interesting list. I suspect a number of those weakest entries will be surpassed in the next decade. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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