January 2024

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Time to track the clipper flipper next week 

the only flipper you'll be tracking is the dolphin lol

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Today will probably be the warmest day for our area 

Depending on the amount of sunshine, Saturday may the warmest day

[MJO812]

Euro unleashes the cold next week

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro unleashes the cold next week

Who cares 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Who cares 

People who want snow and a better pattern for february.

[Dark Star]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

1821 bro ;-)

 

Notice the arrow through the head, kidding...

[Dark Star]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

last winter is a F- this winter is simply an F

I think I got an F- in calculus once...

[Brian5671]

57 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro unleashes the cold next week

Yippee-cold and dry.   

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Yippee-cold and dry.   

For now

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

For now

Then back to a torch for another week after that....

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Euro unleashes the cold next week

Isn’t it transient though?

[donsutherland1]

4 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

Yeah I forget about the D- because my institution doesn't give them only D's, odd I know. We also don't give A+ (but don't think we need that for a winter anytime soon). Last winter definitely gets an F and this one is only at the D because I have more than 8 times my snowfall from last year (almost 10 inches this year as opposed to under 1.5 all of last). An F is still on the table though for this year! 

Is there any chance this winter can be graded on a curve?

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Isn’t it transient though?

Yes as most cold shots are

[JustinRP37]

50 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Is there any chance this winter can be graded on a curve?

I suppose we can give it the Covid exception and offer an extension or extra credit. But I feel like Dr. Son won’t be happy come April if Winter isn’t done with his studies yet. 

[bluewave]

We wound up getting the record warmth today that was originally forecast for Friday.

Newark

TEMPERATURE (F)
 TODAY
  MAXIMUM         59R   316 PM  59    1947  40     19       58

[the_other_guy]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We wound up getting the record warmth today that was originally forecast for Friday.

Newark

TEMPERATURE (F)
 TODAY
  MAXIMUM         59R   316 PM  59    1947  40     19       58

i’ve been in shorts all day. Sometimes you have to remember that it’s the end of January. 51F now.

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

i’ve been in shorts all day. Sometimes you have to remember that it’s the end of January. 51F now.

Record breaking dense fog extent across the US with this warmth encountering the snow cover in many places.

[donsutherland1]

25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We wound up getting the record warmth today that was originally forecast for Friday.

Newark

TEMPERATURE (F)
 TODAY
  MAXIMUM         59R   316 PM  59    1947  40     19       58

Islip also set a record at 57 (old record: 55, 2010).

[donsutherland1]

Despite light rain, clouds, and fog, the temperature surged to near record and record highs today. High temperatures included:

Bridgeport: 53°
Islip: 57° (old record: 55°, 2010)
New Haven: 59° (old record: 55°, 2010)
New York City-Central Park: 59°
New York City-JFK Airport: 54° (tied record set in 1972)
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 57° (tied record set in 1967)
Newark: 59° (tied record set in 1972 and tied in 2010)

The frontal boundary will sag southward overnight bringing slightly cooler air to the region to end the week. As a result, the mercury will likely hold in the middle and upper 40s in New York City and Newark tomorrow. Farther south, Philadelphia could see the temperature rise well into the 50s while Washington, DC basks in temperatures in the upper 60s.

This warm period will assure that January will wind up as a warmer than normal month and Winter 2023-24 will become yet another warmer than normal winter in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The generally mild conditions could continue into the first week of February with only brief interruptions.

Another storm will bring additional rain to the region. The rain could end as a period of wet snow in New York City. Accumulating snow is likely well north and west of New York City and across central New England.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around January 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.92°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event has recently peaked and will continue to fade.

The SOI was -4.05 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.497 today.

On January 23 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.586 (RMM). The January 22-adjusted amplitude was 2.710 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 36.5° (2.8° above normal).

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Despite light rain, clouds, and fog, the temperature surged to near record and record highs today. High temperatures included:

Bridgeport: 53°
Islip: 57° (old record: 55°, 2010)
New Haven: 59° (old record: 55°, 2010)
New York City-Central Park: 59°
New York City-JFK Airport: 54° (tied record set in 1972)
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 57° (tied record set in 1967)
Newark: 59° (tied record set in 1972 and tied in 2010)

The frontal boundary will sag southward overnight bringing slightly cooler air to the region to end the week. As a result, the mercury will likely hold in the middle and upper 40s in New York City and Newark tomorrow. Farther south, Philadelphia could see the temperature rise well into the 50s while Washington, DC basks in temperatures in the upper 60s.

This warm period will assure that January will wind up as a warmer than normal month and Winter 2023-24 will become yet another warmer than normal winter in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The generally mild conditions could continue into the first week of February with only brief interruptions.

Another storm will bring additional rain to the region. The rain could end as a period of wet snow in New York City. Accumulating snow is likely well north and west of New York City and across central New England.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around January 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.92°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event has recently peaked and will continue to fade.

The SOI was -4.05 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.497 today.

On January 23 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.586 (RMM). The January 22-adjusted amplitude was 2.710 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 36.5° (2.8° above normal).

 

What would the temperatures have been today with a full day of sunshine, Don?

This is the only time of year that Central Park can match Newark for temperature lol.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Islip also set a record at 57 (old record: 55, 2010).

We (NYC, EWR, JFK, LGA) haven't hit 60 at all in January have we, Don?

 

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

We (NYC, EWR, JFK, LGA) haven't hit 60 at all in January have we, Don?

 

Ewr hit 61 on the 13th and Central Park 60

[donsutherland1]

58 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

We (NYC, EWR, JFK, LGA) haven't hit 60 at all in January have we, Don?

 

NYC (60), EWR (61), and LGA (60) have all hit 60 this month (January 13th). JFK has not.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Will - Rutgers said:

another nice night for a walk

don't get mugged

 

[SRRTA22]

Out and about and ended up taking hoodie off. Beautiful night before the rain

[psv88]

57 today. Sweet. 

[donsutherland1]

New York City's Winter Futility Rankings (through January 25th):

The 10 worst winters prior to 2023-2024 through January 25th saw the following seasonal outcomes:

Mean seasonal snowfall: 11.0"
Median seasonal snowfall: 12.1"
20" or more seasonal snowfall: 20%
<10" seasonal snowfall: 40%
Highest seasonal snowfall: 22.9", 1971-1972
Lowest seasonal snowfall: 2.3", 2022-2023

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

New York City's Winter Futility Rankings (through January 25th):

The 10 worst winters prior to 2023-2024 through January 25th saw the following seasonal outcomes:

Mean seasonal snowfall: 11.0"
Median seasonal snowfall: 12.1"
20" or more seasonal snowfall: 20%
<10" seasonal snowfall: 40%
Highest seasonal snowfall: 22.9", 1971-1972
Lowest seasonal snowfall: 2.3", 2022-2023

Don I take it that 1972-73 was too cold to make this list although it was the previous record holder for least snowfall in a season?

[bluewave]

On 1/24/2024 at 9:29 AM, batmansascientist said:

I have it at 36 to 1 at Central Park since 2010. 

Would be higher like several regional surrounding sites if the tree growth since the mid 90s didn’t artificially suppress the high temperatures during the warm season. 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Would be higher like several regional surrounding sites if the tree growth since the mid 90s didn’t artificially suppress the high temperatures during the warm season. 

in a way tree growth is a really good thing, we need to greenify the city and get rid of this excess concrete (it's good to filter out air pollution too)