wdrag Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 No thread from myself until at least 830AM for short fuse snow squall gust 40-45KT even 11A-2P Pics and NNJ and 1P-3P NYC-CT. Slightly less modeling support than yesterday though I think it will happen. No thread on Friday til at least tomorrow afternoon... a little concerned the ensembles les are favoring I84 for decent snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 9 hours ago, MJO812 said: This winter might be progressing like 2016. One and done storm unless February turns wintry . If you are lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 NYC currently running +6.3 for the first 2 weeks of January. This is followed by colder temperatures this week. Then another warm up to close out January. So the month should finish solidly above normal. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Cold snap isnt that cold either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 To sum things up we get 2 snow events coming up followed by a warm-up as MJO swings through warm phases and then we get a classic Nino February. February will rock imo. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 33 minutes ago, bluewave said: NYC currently running +6.3 for the first 2 weeks of January. This is followed by colder temperatures this week. Then another warm up to close out January. So the month should finish solidly above normal. Any talk about snow or just warmth ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 hours ago, wdrag said: No thread from myself until at least 830AM for short fuse snow squall gust 40-45KT even 11A-2P Pics and NNJ and 1P-3P NYC-CT. Slightly less modeling support than yesterday though I think it will happen. No thread on Friday til at least tomorrow afternoon... a little concerned the ensembles les are favoring I84 for decent snow. I'm sure you saw this as well, a number of mPING reports out in western PA of limited visibility in squalls along with accumulating snow so it'll be interesting to track this morning. I do see though what you are saying about a little less support on the models for around here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Not alot of talk about a possible snow event next weekend compared to other subforums . 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 NYC currently running +6.3 for the first 2 weeks of January. This is followed by colder temperatures this week. Then another warm up to close out January. So the month should finish solidly above normal. That’s amazing. 🫠. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, MJO812 said: Any talk about snow or just warmth ? It’s easier to do temperature longer range than snow since snowfall forecasts aren’t reliable until we get to the under 72 hr mark. With the record Arctic outbreak to our west, we would be much colder this week if the flow wasn’t crossing the record warm Great Lakes. But highs near 32° in NYC and lows around 20° will feel much colder this week with how warm it has been. The wildcard for the forecast will be what happens with the storm later in the week. I will leave that to the shorter term model forecasts. But if we can lay down some snow cover and get a NNW cold air drain down the Hudson Valley, then NYC has a shot at dipping below 15° or maybe even 10° before we warm back up again later in the month. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Cold snap isnt that cold either.Are you talking about here? Definitely seems to be in the plains, where it’s been oriented the past decade or so.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, North and West said: Are you talking about here? Definitely seems to be in the plains, where it’s been oriented the past decade or so. . Here. I dont care about KC haha. This is run of the mill winter time “cold” for NYC. Nothing Arctic about it for us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, the_other_guy said: Here. I dont care about KC haha. This is run of the mill winter time “cold” for NYC. Nothing Arctic about it for us. Who wants arctic air ? I rather have it just cold enough for snow. Enjoy Tuesday and next weekend before it gets mild for a brief time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Today will be the 700th consecutive day on which New York City's Central Park has seen less than 1" daily snowfall. A system could end the streak on Tuesday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Today will be the 700th consecutive day on which New York City's Central Park has seen less than 1" daily snowfall. A system could end the streak on Tuesday.At this point, I kind of want it to go until next season just so that we break 1,000 and everyone loses their minds and the media goes HAM with the stories. If CPK is going to be an UHI along with a poor pattern, we may as well be entertained.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3 minutes ago, North and West said: At this point, I kind of want it to go until next season just so that we break 1,000 and everyone loses their minds and the media goes HAM with the stories. If CPK is going to be an UHI along with a poor pattern, we may as well be entertained. . I think Friday they'll finally break it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I think Friday they'll finally break it Tuesday has a great chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 26 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Who wants arctic air ? I rather have it just cold enough for snow. Enjoy Tuesday and next weekend before it gets mild for a brief time. We always want Arctic air nearby to guard against mixing issues near the coast and for the retention of snowpack once the storm is past. Examples of single digit temperatures and double digit snowfall would be 1-4-18, 2-17-03, and 1-7-96. That’s not to say we can get great snowstorms with the right track and just cold enough. We have had plenty of those over the last decade. But Arctic air nearby is a nice insurance policy to have especially near the coast. It’s good to have but not always necessary. I personally don’t mind a great snowstorm that melts in a few days. But I know there are many here that don’t like that. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 hour ago, the_other_guy said: Cold snap isnt that cold either. Lack of snow/ice cover, bare ground, wide open Great Lakes is going to modify the cold coming in from the west a lot 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Tuesday has a great chance If we stay all snow I agree 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: If we stay all snow I agree Agree Mesos vs globals right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Weekly numbers: The most "winterlike" week so far this season lies ahead. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, bluewave said: I think we have a higher ceiling for Fridays storm if everything breaks our way. Archambault event if everything comes together like you said. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 30 minutes ago, North and West said: At this point, I kind of want it to go until next season just so that we break 1,000 and everyone loses their minds and the media goes HAM with the stories. If CPK is going to be an UHI along with a poor pattern, we may as well be entertained. . It will be tough to keep the streak doing through this week. Even if Tuesday's event falls apart, there's another shot Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 15 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Archambault event if everything comes together like you said. The potential is better, at least from this far out. There's a risk that it could wind up becoming a January 30-31, 1987-type event if the trough exits a bit faster than currently modeled. Were that to happen, eastern New England would be favored and New York City and southward could miss out on most of the snow. Long Island could still get brushed. During that event, Boston picked up 3.9" of snow, NYC had no measurable snow, and Philadelphia saw 0.4". There is a significant difference from 1987, as colder air should be available this time around. January 30-31, 1987 500 mb anomalies: EPS 500 mb anomalies: 168 hours 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 38 minutes ago, bluewave said: We always want Arctic air nearby to guard against mixing issues near the coast and for the retention of snowpack once the storm is past. Examples of single digit temperatures and double digit snowfall would be 1-4-18, 2-17-03, and 1-7-96. That’s not to say we can get great snowstorms with the right track and just cold enough. We have had plenty of those over the last decade. But Arctic air nearby is a nice insurance policy to have especially near the coast. It’s good to have but not always necessary. I personally don’t mind a great snowstorm that melts in a few days. But I know there are many here that don’t like that. What we worry about with arctic air is suppression, an out to sea track. It seems as though it can indeed be "too cold to snow" if the arctic air suppresses the storm to our south. This was spectacularly the case with the first storm in February 2010, I'll never forget how close we were to having an HECS. I would much much rather have a foot of snow followed by an inch of rain (or even moreso an inch of rain followed by a foot of snow like we did in the final storm of February 2010), than missing out on an HECS by 50 miles. In many ways that first February 2010 storm was much more painful than even March 2001 was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 19 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Weekly numbers: The most "winterlike" week so far this season lies ahead. The way things are looking we may have our coldest weather of the entire winter overall this week. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Not alot of talk about a possible snow event next weekend compared to other subforums . This because they buy the GFS. I dont think the GFS is worlds best model around here. Canadian is better and it hesitates next Friday. Also, need to talk about today and Tuesday first. Then whatever we get after that is icing on the cake. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 Not threading today, at least not yet. Too much melting much of the NYC subforum I95 east but its going to happen with a burst of snow (rain to snow LI) and winds during or within 2 hours after CFP, gust 45-55 MPH with iso power outages. Will look at this more closely once it gets out of the Poconos at 1130A. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 40 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: What we worry about with arctic air is suppression, an out to sea track. It seems as though it can indeed be "too cold to snow" if the arctic air suppresses the storm to our south. This was spectacularly the case with the first storm in February 2010, I'll never forget how close we were to having an HECS. I would much much rather have a foot of snow followed by an inch of rain (or even moreso an inch of rain followed by a foot of snow like we did in the final storm of February 2010), than missing out on an HECS by 50 miles. In many ways that first February 2010 storm was much more painful than even March 2001 was. I think that first storm was suppressed due to the confluence and overpowering -5 SD -AO. There really wasn’t much Arctic air around in Fenruary 2010. NYC only dropped to 17 which is pretty mild for February minimum temperature standards for us. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of FebClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2023 3 0 2 2022 16 0 3 2021 17 0 4 2020 14 0 5 2019 11 0 6 2018 16 0 7 2017 19 0 8 2016 -1 0 9 2015 2 0 10 2014 9 0 11 2013 17 0 12 2012 20 0 13 2011 15 0 14 2010 17 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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