metagraphica Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: They probably are going to wait until last minute to up to HWW. I noticed they’ve already upped the wind speeds in the advisory to HWW speeds. They are so slow to react even when it’s captain obvious. It really doesn’t matter. Beast incoming Already HWW down here. Should be fun times tomorrow AM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: HWW isn't 55 mph. The way the graphic to text works, you might be talking increasing wind gusts from 51 mph to 53 mph. Sounds like a broken system . Would you have upped to HWW now vs when they will ultimately do it pre dawn? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 17, 2023 Author Share Posted December 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Blows my mind to see this possibility in December around here. Yeah extremely rare. I think MA has had a few December tornadoes, back in 1950. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 13 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Pretty notable how long the duration of potentially strong winds are around here. The LLJ almost pivots rather than sweeping through, so it's nearly all day the 18z HRRR is forecasting 45+ knots at PWM. It’s like that in the Nam down here over Logan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Sounds like a broken system . Would you have upped to HWW now vs when they will ultimately do it pre dawn? The text rounds off to the nearest 5 mph. So 50 mph or 55 mph. Anyway, I like the see the mixing height intercepting 60 kt before I bank on 50 kt surface gusts, you never mix down 100% of the top of the mixed layer. Only about half the guidance I see in Bufkit shows that for BDL. So I could argue it either way. Seems reasonable to have an advisory, and increase the winds slightly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Coast will roar, No surprises there. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Kevin trying to get his NWS product interpretation past an actual NWS Meteorologist … …priceless 2 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Kevin trying to get his NWS product interpretation past an actual NWS Meteorologist … …priceless he's working overtime willing this to the level he's fantasized about. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 19 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Pretty notable how long the duration of potentially strong winds are around here. The LLJ almost pivots rather than sweeping through, so it's nearly all day the 18z HRRR is forecasting 45+ knots at PWM. Wish I were at Pit2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 17, 2023 Author Share Posted December 17, 2023 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: The text rounds off to the nearest 5 mph. So 50 mph or 55 mph. Anyway, I like the see the mixing height intercepting 60 kt before I bank on 50 kt surface gusts, you never mix down 100% of the top of the mixed layer. Only about half the guidance I see in Bufkit shows that for BDL. So I could argue it either way. Seems reasonable to have an advisory, and increase the winds slightly. Be careful, Kevin said to me, why use a pit like BDL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: The text rounds off to the nearest 5 mph. So 50 mph or 55 mph. Anyway, I like the see the mixing height intercepting 60 kt before I bank on 50 kt surface gusts, you never mix down 100% of the top of the mixed layer. Only about half the guidance I see in Bufkit shows that for BDL. So I could argue it either way. Seems reasonable to have an advisory, and increase the winds slightly. Being on a hilltop . Rip and roar my friend 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: he's working overtime willing this to the level he's fantasized about. Searching twitter hitting F5 feverishly trying to find any validation for HWW inland. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Be careful, Kevin said to me, why use a pit like BDL It's ORH season. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Wish I were at Pit2 Those river mouths and bays have to create some weird microclimates for wind gusts, but it should blow pretty good around there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Searching twitter hitting F5 feverishly trying to find any validation for HWW inland. Quoting reliable mets like JB in the process... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Quoting reliable mets like JB in the process... All about maximizing clicks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 12 minutes ago, dryslot said: Searching twitter hitting F5 feverishly trying to find any validation for HWW inland. Verification will be fun to slap across your face . This is a very rare set up 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 17, 2023 Author Share Posted December 17, 2023 I might actually work from my basement tomorrow 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Deb’s continue to Deb. Just ignore guidance and forecast under 30mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I might actually work from my basement tomorrow So you can watch the water level rise? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 17, 2023 Author Share Posted December 17, 2023 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: So you can watch the water level rise? Battle between water rising and a TOR ripping through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Verification will be fun to slap across your face What do you care what product you have if you gust to 55 mph? ORH has never topped 61 knots with a reliable gust, so it's not like you're going to gust to 70 mph. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: What do you care what product you have if you gust to 55 mph? ORH has never topped 61 knots with a reliable gust, so it's not like you're going to gust to 70 mph. I’m thinking 60-65 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Battle between water rising and a TOR ripping through I would think you’d be outside experiencing it and filming it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: What do you care what product you have if you gust to 55 mph? ORH has never topped 61 knots with a reliable gust, so it's not like you're going to gust to 70 mph. Unreliably it can gust that high in many wind events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Deb’s continue to Deb. Just ignore guidance and forecast under 30mph If it's not HWW, you're forecasting under 30 mph. BOX forecasters on the night shift: 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 17, 2023 Author Share Posted December 17, 2023 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I would think you’d be outside experiencing it and filming it. True Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Just now, weatherwiz said: True Isn't there spiders in the basement? 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 If it's not HWW, you're forecasting under 30 mph. BOX forecasters on the night shift: Did you issue the latest AFD? 4-6" rn for mtns, with locally higher amounts. Ski areas are forkedSent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowlieSnowstormson Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 I just checked out the 20z HRRR and saw some eye popping shadings on there for CT… any Mets concerned or are these #s likely inflated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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