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Winter '23-'24 Piss and Moan/Banter Thread


IWXwx
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3 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

Not quite sure what I'm exaggerating or who's called me out. We suck at big dogs plain and simple. That's all I've been saying. Never have I said I didn't enjoy 6-12 events, they just don't get me all excited anymore. The shit today is what's annoying. Just enough to mess up the roads.

See down here you would have loved it lol. Blinding snow, 2 inches fell in one hour and then throughout the day it melted. I expected nothing to be honest, so it was awesome to see. But it doesn't matter how good or bad the winter is, how much or little snow we have, I HATE watching snow melt. I know Beavis hears me on that. 

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14 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Oh wow I didn't realize you were still that low. Have you kept track of how many days you've had snow on the ground?

Yep, Im a big fan of snow on ground. 36 days with at least a trace of snow on the ground. The highlight was 15 in a row in mid January 

We didnt see as much melting as you guys yesterday. Grass is still covered here and a few squalls overnight helped. So Should be able to make it to Tuesday with snow on the ground 

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This winter has been pretty awesome IMO. If it’s not going to snow, give me warm temps and dry weather

Last couple years felt like it was always 33 degrees, foggy, with an icy mist 

Probably my favorite winter of the last 5 years locally 

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26 minutes ago, King James said:

This winter has been pretty awesome IMO. If it’s not going to snow, give me warm temps and dry weather

Last couple years felt like it was always 33 degrees, foggy, with an icy mist 

Probably my favorite winter of the last 5 years locally 

2 weeks of full winter with 17”+ on the ground, preceded and followed by warmth. Younger me would have hated this, but older me enjoys it quite a bit. 
 

I love tracking storms, but my sleep also enjoys not staying awake for model runs. 

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1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

2 weeks of full winter with 17”+ on the ground, preceded and followed by warmth. Younger me would have hated this, but older me enjoys it quite a bit. 
 

I love tracking storms, but my sleep also enjoys not staying awake for model runs. 

It’s more the driving / working outside for me. I manage vacant assets and last years (2022) Christmas time storm with all that wind and cold was havoc. And there wasn’t much snow to show for that. 
 

This year, work has been a breeze 

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3 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

Yep, Im a big fan of snow on ground. 36 days with at least a trace of snow on the ground. The highlight was 15 in a row in mid January 

We didnt see as much melting as you guys yesterday. Grass is still covered here and a few squalls overnight helped. So Should be able to make it to Tuesday with snow on the ground 

A few days of snow on the ground after going nearly a month without any snow on the ground during prime winter isn't going to change my perception about this winter. A 7-10 day cold shot in January which was preceded by top 5 warm Dec-early Jan and warmth since then, won't make this winter seem any better. It's been truly garbage from start to finish. 

Two back to back incredibly warm winters and the 4th warm winter in the last 5 years. And the only truly cold winters, the ones that featured more than a 2 week cold shot, since 2015-16 were 2017-18 and 2021-22. But even those two featured incredible warmth (Feb 2018 and Dec 2021). It's crazy how many warm winters we've seen lately. This stat is even more profound for areas further east and north. 

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I started this thread and now it's time for me to use it.

I've been on these boards for over 20 years and for the past nine years I've been here reading about those in the subforum being happy with their snow amounts, while others' lament their lack of winter/snow. One year Iowa scored big, another year it was the Detroit area, another year it's Chicago, another is Minnesota, etc.

I would like to know if there is any location in the subforum north of Central IL, Northern IN, or Ohio that has been consistently below normal for the past nine years. It seems there's been a lot of pissing and moaning about lack of snowfall, but can you match what we in Indiana and Ohio have experienced? 

Stats for MBY:

30 Yr. Avg. 33.6"  
     
2015-'16 21.9"  
2016-'17 14.8"  
2017-'18 27.9"  
2018-'19 28.9"  
2019-'20 27.5  
2020-'21 35.9" *
2021-'22 24.4"  
2022-'23 19.5"  
2023-'24 9.2" **

*The only thing that saved me from being below normal EVERY year was a fluke 4.1" snow on 4/20/21 that completely melted in hours.

**It is currently snowing which may result in finally getting into double figures on 2/16!

It's soul-crushing, especially immediately following back-to-back years of 74.7" and 43".

Maybe those of us in Indiana and Ohio outside of the lake belts should switch to the Tennessee Valley subforum.  Oh, wait......there's been a dearth of severe weather in this area over the same time period.  I guess we can talk about being abnormally dry.  At this point all I can say is bring on spring!

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59 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

A few days of snow on the ground after going nearly a month without any snow on the ground during prime winter isn't going to change my perception about this winter. A 7-10 day cold shot in January which was preceded by top 5 warm Dec-early Jan and warmth since then, won't make this winter seem any better. It's been truly garbage from start to finish. 

Two back to back incredibly warm winters and the 4th warm winter in the last 5 years. And the only truly cold winters, the ones that featured more than a 2 week cold shot, since 2015-16 were 2017-18 and 2021-22. But even those two featured incredible warmth (Feb 2018 and Dec 2021). It's crazy how many warm winters we've seen lately. This stat is even more profound for areas further east and north. 

Ya, it wont change my grade by much. This winter will be a F 

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4 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

Yep, Im a big fan of snow on ground. 36 days with at least a trace of snow on the ground. The highlight was 15 in a row in mid January 

We didnt see as much melting as you guys yesterday. Grass is still covered here and a few squalls overnight helped. So Should be able to make it to Tuesday with snow on the ground 

Yesterday was one of the weirdest I can recall. My ring camera records a daily timelapse and it was crazy. bare to instant white which then melted off. 

 

I am putting the cart before the horse because every day counts and you know damn well it can snow through April. But this winter will rank much worse in snowcover than snowfall lists here.

 

To-date, Detroit has only seen 28 days with a Trace or more on the ground. Keep in mind, a T snow depth is either a dusting (0.4 or less) or patches/skiffs of old snow. So a T of snow depth is not a blanket of snow, and while the observer in me is certainly anal about putting 0 when 0 and T when T, the better metric for snowcover IMO is days with 1"+. Plus its a much easier metric to track over the period of record. And to date, Detroit has only seen 18 days with 1"+ on the ground. The peak snow depth was 7", which is not bad. But the amount of days in total is horrible. The yearly average is 49 days, the all-time low being 10 days (1936-37) & high 96 days (2013-14). *note- I only have snowcover since 1906, although Id estimate the true all-time low is either 1881-82 or 1889-90. Ive estimated about 8 days probably for 1881-82 and only maybe 5 days in 1889-90.

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1 hour ago, IWXwx said:

I started this thread and now it's time for me to use it.

I've been on these boards for over 20 years and for the past nine years I've been here reading about those in the subforum being happy with their snow amounts, while others' lament their lack of winter/snow. One year Iowa scored big, another year it was the Detroit area, another year it's Chicago, another is Minnesota, etc.

I would like to know if there is any location in the subforum north of Central IL, Northern IN, or Ohio that has been consistently below normal for the past nine years. It seems there's been a lot of pissing and moaning about lack of snowfall, but can you match what we in Indiana and Ohio have experienced? 

Stats for MBY:

30 Yr. Avg. 33.6"  
     
2015-'16 21.9"  
2016-'17 14.8"  
2017-'18 27.9"  
2018-'19 28.9"  
2019-'20 27.5  
2020-'21 35.9" *
2021-'22 24.4"  
2022-'23 19.5"  
2023-'24 9.2" **

*The only thing that saved me from being below normal EVERY year was a fluke 4.1" snow on 4/20/21 that completely melted in hours.

**It is currently snowing which may result in finally getting into double figures on 2/16!

It's soul-crushing, especially immediately following back-to-back years of 74.7" and 43".

Maybe those of us in Indiana and Ohio outside of the lake belts should switch to the Tennessee Valley subforum.  Oh, wait......there's been a dearth of severe weather in this area over the same time period.  I guess we can talk about being abnormally dry.  At this point all I can say is bring on spring!

Hope you overperform tonight. Indiana/Ohio have definitely been screwed, but dont leave our sub! :hug:

 

I mentioned not long ago that there has been an unusual disparity between Detroit & Toledo many, many times since 2015-16. Ive seen countless systems where its as if Mother Nature makes the state line of MI and OH/IN her rain/snow line. Historically, Detroit averages 8" more per year than Toledo, but the last 8 years its been 15" more per year.

 

Things even out eventually, so I have no doubt some good times for IN and OH are coming. What better place to start than a La Nina next winter? 

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4 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Is this cumulative days of 1” depth in a season or consecutive streak? If it’s the former I’m surprised it’s not over 100. 

Cumulative. 

 

For consecutive, the top 5 longest streaks consecutive days 1"+ snowcover are:

1.) 81 days - Dec 12, 1903 - Mar 1, 1904

2.) 77 days - Dec 31, 2013 - Mar 17, 2014

3.) 73 days - Dec 11, 1944 - Feb 21, 1945

3.) 73 days - Jan 1, 1978 - Mar 14, 1978

5.) 72 days - Jan 8, 1912 - Mar 19, 1912

 

Top 5 longest streaks consecutive days T+ snowcover

1.) 119 days - Nov 25, 1903 - Mar 22, 1904

2.) 110 days - Dec 9, 2013 - Mar 28, 2014

3.) 109 days - Dec 6, 1977 - Mar 25, 1978

4.) 101 days - Nov 30, 1919 - Mar 9, 1920

4.) 101 days - Dec 6, 1962 - Mar 16, 1963

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Documenting the loss of winter with true & accurate data:

Temperature

image.thumb.png.e6779afb8ec97c8f5d0c05c0f6314a1b.png

Predicted Value, 1970 (linear): 26.9F

Predicted Value, 2024 (linear): 32.6F

Difference: +5.8F

LOESS curve has a predicted value of 35.3F for 2024.

Snowfall

image.thumb.png.43ffc15eba1689e3413c74502f74be30.png

Predicted value, 1970 (linear): 66.8"

Predicted value, 2024 (linear): 54.2"

LOESS Curve appears to do a much better job at capturing the trends - current predicted value: 27.6". Look at that insane inflection point at 2005!

Annual Minimum Temperature

image.thumb.png.e176dd1363d6e9e86182de4127988a5b.png

Predicted value, 1970 (linear): -8F

Predicted value, 2024 (linear): 0F

From solidly Zone 6a to borderline Zone 7a.

Number of Days at or below Zero

image.thumb.png.5447fae3588f401fc20151ed48e9dd5c.png

Predicted value, 1970 (linear): 7

Predicted value, 2024 (linear): 1 [LOESS curve predicts fewer than 0]

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Today has been an unexpected over performer for Kokomo and south.  I really was not expecting anything beyond a heavy dusting on grass with the pavement being wet.  We have 2-3" and it was falling pretty good around 10-11:30.  My work (school) called for an early dismissal.  Sadly project will for me to stay all day or possible even late.  The forecast calls for near 60 by mid to late next week.  

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On 2/15/2024 at 2:12 PM, Powerball said:

While Lake Michigan is certainly part of it, to get a GHD 1-type storm to take a favorable track for Detroit to get dumped on, it would also require a deepening low pressure center to move up the spine of the Appalachian Mountains *AND* with an intense TROWAL, which is much more difficult to accomplish thanks to the complications with topography / downsloping.

Exactly, along with transferring energy. That's been my point all along. Our location makes it the harder to get a big dog vs chicago, thus why they own us.

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2 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

Exactly, along with transferring energy. That's been my point all along. Our location makes it the harder to get a big dog vs chicago, thus why they own us.

They definitely don't own my area at all. Yours sure but not here 

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11 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

Did Missouri get their two feet from lake Michigan too?

Right, because an all time historic storm is the weight measure. When you say something this ignorant it just proves you are being disingenuous to the discussion. Oh and this entire state has seen bigger storms too if you are going to go with top end values.

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7 hours ago, Stebo said:

Right, because an all time historic storm is the weight measure. When you say something this ignorant it just proves you are being disingenuous to the discussion. Oh and this entire state has seen bigger storms too if you are going to go with top end values.

Exactly. Where and when has Missouri even seen 2 feet of snow lol? Kansas City has not seen a 12"+ snowfall since 1962, and although St. Louis saw one in 2013, they have never in recorded history seen a snowfall drop 16" or more, and only once (1912) had a storm drop over 14". If we are going to play it this way, let me count the storms where someone in the Detroit area got 14-18" in a storm (Jan 1/2, 1999, Dec 11/12, 2000, Jan 22, 2005, Jan 1, 2008, Jan 5/6, 2014, Feb 1/2, 2015, Nov 21, 2015). That list grows if you count any one over a foot. 

 

And yes, the lake enhancement is absolutely a factor why Chicago outdoes Detroit in the EXTREMELY RARE monster storms (and Detroit outdoes Chicago in 6-10" storms). Look at just west of Chicago to Rockford, IL. Their biggest storm of all time was 16.3" in 1918 (less than Detroit saw in 2015). The only time they have eclipsed a foot in modern times is 2011 (14.3") and prior to that, the last storm of a foot was in 1948. Again, talking ONE foot, not two. If the only thing in weather you want to see is something thats a once or twice in a lifetime event, and everything else is nothing, then weather is not the hobby for you lol. 

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11 hours ago, Stebo said:

Right, because an all time historic storm is the weight measure. When you say something this ignorant it just proves you are being disingenuous to the discussion. Oh and this entire state has seen bigger storms too if you are going to go with top end values.

All smartassness aside, the point is the lakes overall werent the reason for the big dog totals for that event, even into most of illinois. I don't know why you and Josh keep pushing back on this topic. For reasons already stated, this area outside of the snow belts is missing that big dog, end of discussion. It didn't bother me as much in recent years because ive been a snowbird and havent been around much. I happen to be here this winter, since November to take care of my dad who passed last month. I've whined about big dogs enough and that will be all on that topic from me. 

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