Central PA Winter 23/24

[paweather]

Jan 7th getting ready: 

[anotherman]

This clown makes me mad. This is why people don’t trust forecasts. This jerk right here.

[Atomixwx]

That's like me posting a selfie and getting a comment from some garden variety skank saying she's from Pornhub and wants to blow me on camera.

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[Blizzard of 93]

Looks like CPC adjusted their 8-14 day Temperature Outlook.

We are now “Near Normal” with their update today.

[Blizzard of 93]

CPC even gives us a “slight risk” for snow for January 6th & 7th.

[MAG5035]

On 12/19/2023 at 4:05 PM, MAG5035 said:

I definitely like the look of the pattern from a 500mb standpoint with the below average heights over the southern US with above in Canada, eventually progged to center west of Hudson Bay in central (and then western) Canada . We’ll eventually score something if we continue to maintain that suppressed storm track look, which is generally shown across the guidance. 

My big problem for the time being is temps. It’s going to rear it’s ugly head again with the storm next week that has been pretty consistently on guidance in that Dec 27-28ish period. Gonna try to cut but it looks like it’s going to be forced to reform on the coast. If say today’s 12z GFS scenario played out there’s no decent antecedent cold air in place with the initial low trying to drive well west and the coastal beginning to form and it’s too far displaced N for the northeasterly flow of the coastal to draw it down (similar to what just happened). That storm looks to be a part of the overall pattern reshuffle but I don’t think we’re going to have a snow threat out of it, certainly not in the Sus Valley but probably not in this part of PA either. 

Notably above average temps in Canada and X amount of the Northern US depending on the flavor of longer range model guidance (weeklies, GEFS extended) has been a constant theme. As such I don’t expect a big time arctic air intrusion probably thru at least mid month Jan. Not that we need it, but the big thing that you can see now in regular ensemble guidance is the 500 ridging shifting to western Canada by about New Years. That would at least ensure airmass source directed from Canada and not the Pac, which should get us cold enough to pair up with a storm track which has honestly been pretty favorable for us this season so far. 

Decided to pull this back up, my last pattern related post 9 days ago back on the 19th. So this has generally been on target I suppose… and I continue to think any big time cold happens mid Jan on. What happens in the meantime is up for debate. It’s looking more like the same type temperature pattern over the CONUS and Canada into the first week of Jan with significantly above normal temps in Canada and northern US and average to below the further south in the US you go. Our neck of the woods looks seasonable to somewhat above, but likely cold enough that a reasonably tracked storm opportunity might be doable. That timeframe seems to be in the Jan 4-6th realm. Ensemble guidance has been roughly suggesting it and the new 12z Euro op just about pulled it off. There’s been really poor run to run consistency with op guidance.. especially with the GFS. There’s big differences in the mid-range to D10 between the GFS and Euro just on this current 12z cycle, with the Euro being much colder. 

At any rate, here’s my concerns about the pattern getting into week 2 (second week of Jan). The pattern is certainly changing heading into this period. The big thing is the significant warm anomalies in Canada disappear and are replaced with cold anomalies. So that’s a good first step. Teleconnection wise, ensemble guidance has been developing Greenland blocking and injecting actual cold into the CONUS. All ensembles show solid -NAO/AO. Here’s the issue I’m seeing… The PNA which has been pretty positive as of late reverses to negative around that Jan 4-6 timeframe. The EPO goes into a positive spike, specifically on the GEFS…but in that same timeframe. The magnitude difference could be why the GFS/GEFS has looked a good bit warmer in the east… along with much less high heights over Greenland. But either way, the main three ensembles show the flip to negative PNA.

My main concern with this is that the cold that’s finally on the table focuses.. at least initially.. in the west and central. That can still be a good thing if we have the solid -NAO since that would probably keep us near the storm track while having sufficient cold available. It could also suck if it’s more of a GEFS evolution (less Greenland blocking and -NAO) where the mean trough axis is too far west popping up heights off the east coast (making us prone to cutters). I do think if the latter scenario happened that the cold air still eventually comes, but delayed (again). 

12z Euro EPS v GEFS 500mb (5 day avg D5-10 anomalies). Note the much more pronounced + heights over Greenland on the Euro

Euro EPS v GEFS temps ( 5 day avg D10-15)

 

[Bubbler86]

Lack of deep cold air on the GFS keeps our hopes tempered.  Canadian and Euro a tad colder, though very marginal themselves, but also suppresses.

 

 

 

[mahantango#1]

55 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Lack of deep cold air on the GFS keeps our hopes tempered.  Candian and Euro a tad colder, though very marginal themselves, but also suppresses.

 

 

 

Yes, according to my NWS forecast temps will be running above normal too.

[Blizzard of 93]

The January 4th potential is gaining steam again on the models. Temperatures look to be marginal, but with the right track & strength, this could put parts of CTP in the game for some Winter weather.

The 0z Euro this run is marginal, but close to being a decent event for us.

The 0z Canadian & 6z GFS are further southeast, but offer colder solutions.

[Bubbler86]

11 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Yes, according to my NWS forecast temps will be running above normal too.

Tale of two worlds when looking at the CMC and GFS.  CMC runs near normal until about Jan 6th when it goes much below normal.  GFS is much warmer with some torch days mixed in.    500 Heights in Canada are worlds apart in early January.   These are both op runs. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Blizzard of 93]

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The January 4th potential is gaining steam again on the models. Temperatures look to be marginal, but with the right track & strength, this could put parts of CTP in the game for some Winter weather.

The 0zEuro this run is marginal, but close to being a decent event for us.

The 0z Canadian & 6z GFS are further southeast, but offer colder solutions.

The old line from my handbook says, “the blend could be your friend” for the 4th.

[mahantango#1]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Tale of two worlds when looking at the CMC and GFS.  CMC runs near normal until about Jan 6th when it goes much below normal.  GFS is much warmer with some torch days mixed in.    500 Heights in Canada are worlds apart in early January.   These are both op runs. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I guess we will see in about a week which one is close to what actually happens. 

[Blizzard of 93]

The January 7th chance on the models also got a lot more interesting overnight.

The 6z GFS really put us in the game this run, but temps are marginal as depicted.

The 0z Canadian & Euro are colder & further southeast at this time. The Euro was not far off of being a good run for us.

Long way to go, but it’s good to be back in the game.

[Blizzard of 93]

The 0z GFS way out in fantasyland also ends with another Winter storm chance at the end its run on January 13th.

It’s good to see an active pattern with some cold air around. We will probably lose some, by the potential is there to win some as well if things go our way.

[Bubbler86]

Props to MJS as MDT now sits at 5AN for the month of Dec with 8 consecutive days where the temp has not gone below freezing.  This includes 5 days in a row with the departure being 8 or more degrees.  Made it to 57 yesterday at Krou.   Looks like the THV equipment is down. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[mahantango#1]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Props to MJS as MDT now sits at 5AN for the month of Dec with 8 consecutive days where the temp has not gone below freezing.  This includes 5 days in a row with the departure being 8 or more degrees.  Made it to 57 yesterday at Krou.   Looks like the THV equipment is down. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

At least we are saving on the heating bill. But others are having mental health issues, meltdowns from the lack of snow. 

[Blizzard of 93]

20 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

At least we are saving on the heating bill. But others are having mental health issues, meltdowns from the lack of snow. 

This is typical El Niño most of the time. Warm & little snow in December.

The pattern flip is currently underway.

The storms & rumors of Winter storms should make this place a lot of fun in January & February.

[mahantango#1]

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

This is typical El Niño most of the time. Warm & little snow in December.

The pattern flip is currently underway.

The storms & rumors of Winter storms should make this place a lot of fun in January & February.

That with the threat of snow will make this thread very active...once again.

[Blizzard of 93]

2 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

That with the threat of snow will make this thread very active...once again.

I’m happy to see we have 2 chances next week on the Op runs to track.
They might not work out for us, but I’m just happy to be back in the short to medium range game.

[Bubbler86]

1 hour ago, mahantango#1 said:

At least we are saving on the heating bill. But others are having mental health issues, meltdowns from the lack of snow. 

Yes, decent chance I get through the whole year on one tank of oil.  We need a gorilla in the gulf to help with the mental issues.

[mahantango#1]

13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yes, decent chance I get through the whole year on one tank of oil.  We need a gorilla in the gulf to help with the mental issues.

 

13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yes, decent chance I get through the whole year on one tank of oil.  We need a gorilla in the gulf to help with the mental issues.

As long as the gorilla in the gulf doesn't slip harmlessly out to sea. I'm sure as soon as one develops the NWS in State College will downplay the event as a nothing burger. As they always do.

[GrandmasterB]

I’d buy that look right now for Jan 04. I get surface temps are iffy, but with that track central would be in the game. It’s not like the low is plowing up into Philly, if the track is offshore 50 miles I like our chances for some snow. Also, as Blizz is pointing out maybe multiple chances too. Great runs overnight.

[Atomixwx]

Yes, decent chance I get through the whole year on one tank of oil.  We need a gorilla in the gulf to help with the mental issues.

My delivery guy has decided that the holidays require a topping-off despite my level being nowhere near the point where he would have showed up last year. I think the fuel oil companies are trying to get nickel and dimes every few weeks now.

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[TimB]

2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

This is typical El Niño most of the time. Warm & little snow in December.

The pattern flip is currently underway.

The storms & rumors of Winter storms should make this place a lot of fun in January & February.

Indeed, in a typical El Niño, International Falls MN has a December that is 5 degrees warmer than any other December on record.

[canderson]

Forecast high is 48. It’s 50 at 10 am. 

[ChescoWx]

That strange light in the sky is indeed sun today! Today should be our last well above normal temperature day for a while. We should see temperatures closer to normal as we finish 2023 and move into 2024. It looks dry till about Thursday morning or so when we might see a chance of some snow showers.

Records for today: High 73 (1984) / Low -2 (1917) / Rain 3.48" (1901) / Snow 4.7" (1935)

[Atomixwx]

That strange light in the sky is indeed sun today!

It's cloudy.


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[Bubbler86]

Nooners in Myra...51 or 52

[paweather]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Nooners in Myra...51 or 52

Cool came to visit!

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, paweather said:

Cool came to visit!

i was going to go to funcks to see the taps but we decided to head back to Houlihans in Hershey.