paweather Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 7 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: @Atomixwx Sorry that I lost my cool this morning. I am generally entertained by your posts. I hope that you & your family have great holidays. All good @Blizzard of 93 we know the pattern is changing. Just not the specifics of when yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 14 minutes ago, paweather said: All good @Blizzard of 93 we know the pattern is changing. Just not the specifics of when yet. Based on tellies/ens guidance, looks like the pattern changes just after santa heads back up the chimney. AO/NAO headed - and PNA slightly + is going to help and ens guidance supports this. Unfortunately while the 500's look better as we approach New Years, the source regions are not flooded w/ arctic air. 2m temp snapshot shows this. At least flow is better and hoping the cold can load up in the land of the canooks...but this is a Nino so I'm not sure cross polar air is headed here yet. Better is the word for now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 Yesterday afternoon I seen a huge flock of geese (I estimate about 100 or so) headed south in a perfect V. The same thing happened last year in December about a week or 2 before we had that cold outbreak before Christmas. I wonder if this is trying to tell us something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 50 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I still think much of the issue is using ensembles to try and forecast ground truth. If you have a 10-model ensemble and 9 runs show the highs will be in the 50's and one run shows the highs will be near 0, the resulting ensemble mean is going to be grossly understated despite only 10% of the suites showing such a solution. It is similar to the difference between an average salary and a median salary. With average salary figures, the large wage earners skew the numbers to make the resulting figures look between than reality. Using the ensembles to "check up on the op's" is a better use, IMO....or to look for potential. You're a man after my own heart Bubbs. Great little statistical lesson here, in that whenever the mean greatly veers from the median you will have a skewed distribution. The income example you gave is the most classic example of a skew-right distribution. A classic skew-left distribution would be age of death. Not everything is a normal bell curve, as lovely as that would be ha. I'm surprised the ensembles don't drop the extreme outliers, to avoid such undue influence, which is something that is often done in real world statistics. That, or use something like the interquartile range as a baseline from which to draw the mean. Go ahead and add this to my list of mathematical weather gripes, to go along with how we calculate the daily average temp. Busted pretty high here overnight, with a low of only 33. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I post maps from model runs to discuss. I am not saying everyday “Golly gee, I wish it would snow someday”! This is absolutely what @Bubbler86does as well. He’ll tell you so himself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 9 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: You're a man after my own heart Bubbs. Great little statistical lesson here, in that whenever the mean greatly veers from the median you will have a skewed distribution. The income example you gave is the most classic example of a skew-right distribution. A classic skew-left distribution would be age of death. Not everything is a normal bell curve, as lovely as that would be ha. I'm surprised the ensembles don't drop the extreme outliers, to avoid such undue influence, which is something that is often done in real world statistics. That, or use something like the interquartile range as a baseline from which to draw the mean. Go ahead and add this to my list of mathematical weather gripes, to go along with how we calculate the daily average temp. Busted pretty high here overnight, with a low of only 33. You are digging in deeper than I did. Ha. I have thought about the possibility of having a limit on extreme outliers but then it brings into question 1) What if the outlier is right this time? 2) Where do we draw the line on what Outlier is? 20 degrees different than the next closest member? I think a good example of skewed distribution is the snow fall member maps I posted yesterday. I think most people understand this, but it is very clear example of the issue in using ensemble snow means to predict much...the snow means that matches these members was 3-4" through much of the LSV but only 6-7 of the 30 members below show that result. The rest show no snow or more in the range of 1-2" (18 in a quick count for 1-2") but the gigantic outputs of P26, P23, P03, and P14 not only cancelled out the ones showing nothing, they double what the majority of 18 show. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 Oh and also the signal for negative height anomalies in the longer term is much more muted in the long range GEPS and EPS. The GEFS is the only one keeping the faith that it’s more than a few days of kinda cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 9 minutes ago, TimB said: Oh and also the signal for negative height anomalies in the longer term is much more muted in the long range GEPS and EPS. The GEFS is the only one keeping the faith that it’s more than a few days of kinda cold. I was starting to buy in yesterday when the GFS Op was veering toward a very cold Eastern half of the US but disappointed to see the last few runs bleed it away. All of this is still 300-hour stuff, but it is what the output is. It does bother me that the GFS is using the new Fv3 core, but the GEFS is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 I was starting to buy in yesterday when the GFS Op was veering toward a very cold Eastern half of the US but disappointed to see the last few runs bleed it away. All of this is still 300-hour stuff, but it is what the output is. It does bother me that the GFS is using the new Fv3 core, but the GEFS is not. I have nightmares from fv3Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 22, 2023 Author Share Posted December 22, 2023 .34" in the desert rain gauge so far this morning, and if everyone is right, it's going to continue all day. A true Sonoran Soaker as they call them out here... I'll update more later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 A mostly cloudy but dry day today with temps struggling to get much above the mid 30's in many spots across the county. Temperatures tonight will again drop below freezing....but they looks to be the last below freezing temperatures for almost a week. The upcoming week looks mild but nowhere near record warm levels we could see highs in the low 50 from Christmas Day through Wednesday. A couple showers are possible Christmas Eve morning with a greater rain event likely by Tuesday into Wednesday. Much colder weather looks to arrive in time for New Years Eve. Records for today: High 64.7 (2013) / Low -1 (1960) / Rain 1.63" (1983) / Snow 5.8" (1908) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 11:07 Nooners. 34°F and cloudy. It's cold. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 1128 Nooners at Liberty ski resort's west facing slopes. The snow is indeed sparse. 40 degrees and the front parking lot is about 25 percent full with golfers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 12z GFS looking good for a Cold Start to the New Year and possible snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 12z GFS looking good for a Cold Start to the New Year and possible snow!Good. Despite the thumping I'll take from the fuel oil folks, that really is the desired result. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Good. Despite the thumping I'll take from the fuel oil folks, that really is the desired result. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk You got it my man. New Year and more SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUWhiteout70 Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 6 hours ago, mahantango#1 said: Yesterday afternoon I seen a huge flock of geese (I estimate about 100 or so) headed south in a perfect V. The same thing happened last year in December about a week or 2 before we had that cold outbreak before Christmas. I wonder if this is trying to tell us something. Nope, those are the lazy ass freeloader geese that stay year-round now. All the others have flown south long ago. My father has a 1-acre pond that I have to chase these shit machines off of every other day because they eat all the feed he puts out for the geese he raises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUWhiteout70 Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 Had a high temp. of 32deg. here today, currently at 31. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 High temp of 41, currently 39 under overcast skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 Only got up to 35.1 here today so far - currently it's 34.5. @Mount Joy Snowman we're going to pull off the rare combo of a warmer than forecast low followed by a colder than forecast high. And...pulling it off without precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Only got up to 35.1 here today so far - currently it's 34.5. @Mount Joy Snowman we're going to pull off the rare combo of a warmer than forecast low followed by a colder than forecast high. And...pulling it off without precip. Haha I was thinking that same thing just a little while ago. The rare daily double! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 these shit machinesJim Norton? Is that you?Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUWhiteout70 Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Jim Norton? Is that you? Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk My father coined that term 40+yrs. ago. lol. That's how long I've been chasing those bastards off his pond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 My father coined that term 40+yrs. ago. lol. That's how long I've been chasing those bastards off his pond. For how often they charge you it's obvious they have little fear of humans. I think we need to have geese specials for a month, thin them out, and reinforce a fear of humans in themSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 My father coined that term 40+yrs. ago. lol. That's how long I've been chasing those bastards off his pond. That's interesting. The only other time I have ever come across somebody using the term "shit machine" was Jim Norton referring to bears. "First you're a shit machine, now you're a rug." 5:10Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 I fucking hate geese and ducks. I was at Big Bear Mountain in NY when I was a child visiting my great-grandmother and a duck pecked me in the foot. I was minding my own business as a little kid and this asshole smashed my foot. Every single one of them should die. I choose to live with golden retrievers on the off-chance they come up on a dead fowl and can swim out there and bring it to me so that I may micturate on its corpse. It pains me that my son LOVES ducks.Fuck ducks. Ducks suck. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 4th consecutive day of highs in the 30's and lows in the 20's and teens here. One of the more wintery temp weeks in 2 years. Not the most but top 5-10. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUWhiteout70 Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 15 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: That's interesting. The only other time I have ever come across somebody using the term "shit machine" was Jim Norton referring to bears. "First you're a shit machine, now you're a rug." 5:10 Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk That's because you never met my dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 2 hours ago, paweather said: 12z GFS looking good for a Cold Start to the New Year and possible snow! Definitely an improvement over 6Z though it is more pushing out a bit....highs into the 40's or near 50 the first 3 days of Jan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 Our high so far today has only been 31.0 at midnight. This will be our first subfreezing day since last February 25th and the earliest first subfreezing day of the winter season since December 16, 2020 when the high was 28.2 degrees 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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