Central PA Winter 23/24

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, mahantango#1 said:

So, when is our next threat of wintry precipitation?

Looking beyond current cold shot, the flow becomes SSW and somewhat of an omega block gets established in the central  parts of conus.  Floods us w/ pacific air with no real troughing here in the east as we lead up to Christmas.  2m temp anomalies are just not looking good for the next 2 3weeks.  Hoping there is a light at the end of the tunnel as we get to Christmas week and beyond.  

[paweather]

JB already punting the rest of December into January. Glad I don't pay the 28 lousy dollars for the Bell. 

[Bubbler86]

Just now, paweather said:

JB already punting the rest of December into January. Glad I don't pay the 28 lousy dollars for the Bell. 

He must have been viewing the MA LR discussion yesterday. 

[paweather]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

He must have been viewing the MA LR discussion yesterday. 

He contradicts himself right now. He tries to move to the next model JMA to help his winter forecast,

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Porsche said:

In all honesty, I'm extremely grateful for what we've seen over the last week or so.  I love these little storms that just creep up on us.  Heck I don't think anyone would have predicted seeing snow falling 3 times over the last week even as Thanksgiving approached.  Just goes to show you, (imho) that because something isn't modeled a week out doesn't mean we can't see snow.  For me this is 10X better than last year.  Side note, I'm happy to see the juiced up systems that keep popping up.  Keep the faith!!

Congrats and agreed.  Only diff moving forward it what I just posted, no real windows open for the next couple weeks, but for the fall and early winter as a whole...it's a WHOLE lot better than last year.  Looks like winters just taking a pause for a little while.  Is what it is and yeah, lets hope the 12z's tell me I'm off my rocker.  

[Bubbler86]

7 minutes ago, paweather said:

He contradicts himself right now. He tries to move to the next model JMA to help his winter forecast,

A not-so-great December should not be a judge for the whole winter so surprised if he is panicking at all.    In recent years we have had quite a few instances of great patterns never making it past day 10 so I do totally understand the penchant for some to assume a negative stance until the snow is falling (after the last several years) but even if Dec does end up veering toward AN/no snow, we have 2/3 of winter left to go.   

 

Canderson not here so not much talk about it but keep seeing warnings about high winds today.  The HRRR is not showing anything to the level of the stuff I read. 

[paweather]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

A not-so-great December should not be a judge for the whole winter so surprised if he is panicking at all.    In recent years we have had quite a few instances of great patterns never making it past day 10 so I do totally understand the penchant for some to assume a negative stance until the snow is falling (after the last several years) but even if Dec does end up veering toward AN/no snow, we have 2/3 of winter left to go.   

Absolutely. When you look the models the end of November lots were talking about the Christmas period being the pattern change and now it seems like we move that into January. It is putting some forecasters on the edge of their seats.

[pasnownut]

2 minutes ago, paweather said:

Absolutely. When you look the models the end of November lots were talking about the Christmas period being the pattern change and now it seems like we move that into January. It is putting some forecasters on the edge of their seats.

Should we use JB's delayed but not denied statement 

We've seen this far too many times and this shouldn't come as a surprise to most in here.  If one objectively looks at 500mb maps on ENS guidance and source regions to see where our weather is coming from, one can come to reasonable conclusion that for the next 2 weeks its close the curtains  and thats been the look for a while now.

While we wait for the better signals (and as of a couple minutes ago, they are still decent as we get beyond next couple weeks), I think emotion also plays in at the time of year when Burle n Ives kinda Christmases run amuk in our snow loving skulls.  Looks like we just need to chill n ride out the warmish period and hope that things continue to materialize and not get kicked down the calendar.  

 

[Bubbler86]

No room for it to develop but at least the cold is in place.

 

 

[Bubbler86]

@Blizzard of 93, here is one for you to file in your template folder for future posts.... just change acronyms to CXY and MDT and city/area names to Harrisburg and West Shore and you are ready to go!  :-)

 

[pasnownut]

8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

No room for it to develop but at least the cold is in place.

 

 

[Atomixwx]

Is Joe Bastardi even relevant anymore? I don't pay attention to him because it feels like for the last decade or so, he's been trying to will a winter into existence almost to support or cover for his political leanings, which is kinda shitty and makes it hard to pay attention to the guy. So him punting on December, if that is the case, seems like a pretty glaring sign that the month is probably over.

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[paweather]

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

 

Sometimes I think we will have to bank on one big Snowstorm to come close to our normal winter snow amounts anymore. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Total QPF here of 1.81".

[Bubbler86]

10 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Is Joe Bastardi even relevant anymore? I don't pay attention to him because it feels like for the last decade or so, he's been trying to will a winter into existence almost to support or cover for his political leanings, which is kinda shitty and makes it hard to pay attention to the guy. So him punting on December, if that is the case, seems like a pretty glaring sign that the month is probably over.

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Both the GFS and CMC Op's have enough cold air 4-6 days before Christmas to at least avoid shitting the blinds for now.   They get there different ways though so not much confidence.   GFS has a 50/50 Low (or close to it) which would usher in a cold rush. 

[Atomixwx]

Both the GFS and CMC Op's have enough cold air 4-6 days before Christmas to at least avoid shitting the blinds for now.   They get there different ways though so not much confidence.   GFS has a 50/50 Low (or close to it) which would user in a cold rush. 

Right. Ten day looks *seasonal*. It's not going to be 34°F with snow showers every day. Seasonal is pretty good.

Having said that: Nooners, 34°F with snow showers.

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[anotherman]

Total QPF here of 1.81".

Had 1.75 on the Mount Joy station.

[pasnownut]

10 minutes ago, paweather said:

Sometimes I think we will have to bank on one big Snowstorm to come close to our normal winter snow amounts anymore. 

While it does feel that way, I'd say its a byproduct of the regime we've been in w/ big fropas and trailing vorts trying to take advantage of antecedent cold.  Hoping as the nino evolves (and the pattern starts to do the same, that more "normal" kinda storms are modelled. 

Personally I'm not down at all....as stated, its been normal to me so far, and has been looking warmish for a while (even though LR GFS Op runs show otherwise (look at the ridging from same timestamp 3 runs earlier FWIW). 

Hoping we keep the southern jet active and can get the Pac/NH to reshuffle to a bit less hostile look as the year end nears. Then we just need to time things a bit more right and who knows... 

[mitchnick]

16 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Both the GFS and CMC Op's have enough cold air 4-6 days before Christmas to at least avoid shitting the blinds for now.   They get there different ways though so not much confidence.   GFS has a 50/50 Low (or close to it) which would usher in a cold rush. 

I've seen snow fall imby 3 days out of the last 7, one with an inch+, anotheŕ with a tenth or 2, and the other decent flurries.  This week through Sunday per NWS is at or a little below normal with highs from the low to upper 40's and lows from the lower to upper 20's.  I haven't looked at the days before Christmas, but I  trust your analysis. When I  step out of my whinny, weenie shoes, I  would think this is feeling like a normal winter between now and Christmas. 

[pasnownut]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I've seen snow fall imby 3 days out of the last 7, one with an inch+, anotheŕ with a tenth or 2, and the other decent flurries.  This week through Sunday per NWS is at or a little below normal with highs from the low to upper 40's and lows from the lower to upper 20's.  I haven't looked at the days before Christmas, but I  trust your analysis. When I  step out of my whinny, weenie shoes, I  would think this is feeling like a normal winter between now and Christmas. 

warmish look on Ens guidance doesnt mean HOT.  For timestamp of next chance, here is 2m temp anoms for conus.  Find me some cold air....please n thx. My observations are mine and mine only...of course the weenie in me wants bubbles to be right - yes i typed that....tis the season. 

[Bubbler86]

15 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I've seen snow fall imby 3 days out of the last 7, one with an inch+, anotheŕ with a tenth or 2, and the other decent flurries.  This week through Sunday per NWS is at or a little below normal with highs from the low to upper 40's and lows from the lower to upper 20's.  I haven't looked at the days before Christmas, but I  trust your analysis. When I  step out of my whinny, weenie shoes, I  would think this is feeling like a normal winter between now and Christmas. 

No blow torches but probably some AN days and some BN normal days which would all equate to normal indeed if it came to fruition.   Cannot put too much weight in a 200+ hour OP map but it at least lends itself to keeping the blinds clean. 

 

[paweather]

Nooner 43 and Cloudy

[CoralRed]

This demands to be shared so here it is:

 

[MAG5035]

9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Both the GFS and CMC Op's have enough cold air 4-6 days before Christmas to at least avoid shitting the blinds for now.   They get there different ways though so not much confidence.   GFS has a 50/50 Low (or close to it) which would usher in a cold rush. 

Temps in our neck of the woods have been averaging normal-ish on ensembles thru the 10-15 day period. It doesn’t look all out torchy, but the true big + anomalies are at higher latitudes like the north-central US and most of Canada.  Clear indication that anomalous arctic cold is out of the equation on our side of the NHEM for now (it’s over on the Asian side). AO/NAO have been forecast to be increasingly more positive during this next 10-15 day range and ensemble guidance, esp the Euro EPS really show low heights over the poles and high heights over the mid-latitudes. EPO is forecast to take a dip negative which could help draw a source region from Canada, but there’s no “cold” there.. so what comes down only would be seasonal for us and not below average until say the southeast US. We’ve also been traversing phase 4-5 the last several days in the MJO, which is forecast to be heading in the null phase the next couple days. That jives fairly well with our recent period of being above average temp wise. 

To sum all that up, we’re not there currently for sustained cold and snowy.. or even really stormy at all for that matter. The main weather feature to keep an eye on during the whole forecast period for op guidance is the potential southern stream system thats been modeled around the 16-18th. Most guidance has had a fairly potent, slow moving coastal system near or up the coast… the problem of course being there’s a lack of cold air for it. This could eventually come back to being an interior/elevational threat for snow as guidance is able to hone in on it more (obviously dependent on track) but I don’t think there’s going to be enough cold around for places like the LSV and Mid-Atlantic with that particular system. 

 

[Bubbler86]

7 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Temps in our neck of the woods have been averaging normal-ish on ensembles thru the 10-15 day period. It doesn’t look all out torchy, but the true big + anomalies are at higher latitudes like the north-central US and most of Canada.  Clear indication that anomalous arctic cold is out of the equation on our side of the NHEM for now (it’s over on the Asian side). AO/NAO have been forecast to be increasingly more positive during this next 10-15 day range and ensemble guidance, esp the Euro EPS really show low heights over the poles and high heights over the mid-latitudes. EPO is forecast to take a dip negative which could help draw a source region from Canada, but there’s no “cold” there.. so what comes down only would be seasonal for us and not below average until say the southeast US. We’ve also been traversing phase 4-5 the last several days in the MJO, which is forecast to be heading in the null phase the next couple days. That jives fairly well with our recent period of being above average temp wise. 

To sum all that up, we’re not there currently for sustained cold and snowy.. or even really stormy at all for that matter. The main weather feature to keep an eye on during the whole forecast period for op guidance is the potential southern stream system thats been modeled around the 16-18th. Most guidance has had a fairly potent, slow moving coastal system near or up the coast… the problem of course being there’s a lack of cold air for it. This could eventually come back to being an interior/elevational threat for snow as guidance is able to hone in on it more (obviously dependent on track) but I don’t think there’s going to be enough cold around for places like the LSV and Mid-Atlantic with that particular system. 

 

On the op GFS, that 3-5 days before Christmas period was really the only period between now and Christmas that I could see much of any chance for temps to be cold enough for any winter weather.   Fully agree, there is no true arctic air in the near or mid future as modeled. The rest of Dec is a beggars can't be choosers/thread the needle hope.  Also agree the system a few days before is a no go from the start for most of PA.

[Itstrainingtime]

Crazy bumpy flight into BWI. Apparently no power at home due to the high winds.

[Yardstickgozinya]

I fell asleep waiting for the changeover this morning.  I woke up a few hours later to a coating of maybe .25" coating.  It definitely smells like winter this late afternoon. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

[Jns2183]

Crazy bumpy flight into BWI. Apparently no power at home due to the high winds.

I fly out of there new years eve

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[Bubbler86]

Shockingly the 18Z GFS does not develop the late week storm as the 12Z did, sends it out to sea which removes the 50/50 low from the equation, and all the analysis of the 12Z is a waste as the cold source tapped at 12Z is gone.