MJO812 Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 40 minutes ago, Allsnow said: That’s a mild/torch look going into mid month on the eps What torch ? Come on man. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 2 hours ago, bluewave said: We haven’t had a really cold December in NYC since 1989 which was the last time NYC averaged in the 20s . The ironic thing is that winter ended up being warm and snowless after December. Hated that winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Have to head to Eurasia if you want to see any real cold this month. Boldest statement on December 1 when we have the whole month to go. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 Just added the new 30 day outlook by CPC to the p1 post and for comparison...its shifting the axis of max warmth slightly west from 2 weeks ago. Still wet se USA. Looks interesting, imo, for marginal snows eventually sagging down into our NYC subforum. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 46 minutes ago, MJO812 said: What torch ? Come on man. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 55 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Barely a torch before things get better by the holidays. Get ready for some fun 3 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Barely a torch before things get better by the holidays. Get ready for some fun Why do you do this to yourself every year? 5 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 13 minutes ago, psv88 said: Why do you do this to yourself every year? Deja vu all over again. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 .49 inch of rain here and still raining. More than I expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 53 minutes ago, lee59 said: .49 inch of rain here and still raining. More than I expected. Win for the NAM for a change. Most models had 0.25 or so when NAM was wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Barely a torch before things get better by the holidays. Get ready for some fun 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 2 hours ago, uofmiami said: Mean trough in the west. Looks like we wait until January 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 I’m not expecting anything of note within the next two weeks, but I wouldn’t completely close the door on the back half of the month. Time and time again the look changes as we move up in time, though yes it has to be acknowledged in recent winters that often works against us by going in the wrong direction. With that said, I’m relatively uninvested the next couple weeks but will circle back and hope for some improvements going into the holiday and immediately behind. Stay positive, but be realistic IMHO. Best approach. I would be flabbergasted if DJF is anywhere close to as awful as last year in total - even if we end up punting the majority of Dec. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 The next two weeks looks like some pretty boring weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 11 hours ago, MJO812 said: Boldest statement on December 1 when we have the whole month to go. Again, it’s not canceling winter in December to acknowledge that multiple factors are indicating another 40° or warmer December for NYC to EWR. We have seen this time and time again. It fits the pattern of all the 70° Septembers and 60° Octobers. What is actually happening is that December is becoming a fall month and September a summer month. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Again, it’s not canceling winter in December to acknowledge that multiple factors are indicating another 40° or warmer December for NYC to EWR. We have seen this time and time again. It fits the pattern of all the 70° Septembers and 60° Octobers. What is actually happening is that December is becoming a fall month and September a summer month. My barometer is November, as long as we keep getting snow events in November like we did a couple years ago, December will be fine for a while. On a side note I love warm weather, so I am enjoying September warmth while it lasts. I would gladly trade September for a decent April though. Nothing is worse than cold and rainy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 Again, it’s not canceling winter in December to acknowledge that multiple factors are indicating another 40° or warmer December for NYC to EWR. We have seen this time and time again. It fits the pattern of all the 70° Septembers and 60° Octobers. What is actually happening is that December is becoming a fall month and September a summer month. and March is much more miserable (even including snow chances outside of the city) than I recall as a kid.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 2 minutes ago, North and West said: and March is much more miserable (even including snow chances outside of the city) than I recall as a kid. . My memory is probably off, but I remember Decembers being snowy in the 80s with snowless Marches. The 90s were mostly warm, early 90s snowy Marches snowless Decembers. Late 90s warm and snowless year round . The 2000s Decembers were great however it almost NEVER snowed in March, then the 2010s it flipped and we lost December and and gained March. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX-PA Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 7 hours ago, psv88 said: Mean trough in the west. Looks like we wait until January That's a normal December here unless I'm color blind. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 My memory is probably off, but I remember Decembers being snowy in the 80s with snowless Marches. The 90s were mostly warm, early 90s snowy Marches snowless Decembers. Late 90s warm and snowless year round . The 2000s Decembers were great however it almost NEVER snowed in March, then the 2010s it flipped and we lost December and and gained March.Right? And I don’t think any of us know if it’s all AGW or cyclical or both. March *seems* to have been a lot more pleasant in the recent past. I just know from my kids’ baseball teams that March is usually now chilly, grey, and muddy with flurries and rain. I do think we’re having some recency bias on September since it was hot the first week of this past September. I’ve always found September to be the best weather of the year. Makes fall sports for the kids very enjoyable.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX-PA Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 The reason you don't punt December like most of the board is doing. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 The reason you don't punt December like most of the board is doing. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX-PA Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 Just now, North and West said: . MJO half of the month we are in the warm phases which you see phase 3-6..the second half of the month MJO is going into cold phases 7-8, Showing there is some hope for around the holidays. Plus NAO is negative even in the warm phases so it wont be a blowtorch 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 23 minutes ago, WX-PA said: The reason you don't punt December like most of the board is doing. Good post Nothing is getting hung in the warm phases. Patience is required here. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 32 minutes ago, WX-PA said: That's a normal December here unless I'm color blind. We get some snow here but snow in December has been hard to come by lately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 New JMA for December has a nice negative NAO for the east. Nothing warm about it on the latest model run. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 Latest EPS going forward 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 38 minutes ago, North and West said: Right? And I don’t think any of us know if it’s all AGW or cyclical or both. March *seems* to have been a lot more pleasant in the recent past. I just know from my kids’ baseball teams that March is usually now chilly, grey, and muddy with flurries and rain. I do think we’re having some recency bias on September since it was hot the first week of this past September. I’ve always found September to be the best weather of the year. Makes fall sports for the kids very enjoyable. . On thing that cracks me up. When I was growing up my dad used to always talk about how much colder and snowier it was when he was a kid. Now I am telling my kids how much snowier it was from 2000 through 2018. The cycle goes on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 Just now, EastonSN+ said: On thing that cracks me up. When I was growing up my dad used to always talk about how much colder and snowier it was when he was a kid. Now I am telling my kids how much snowier it was from 2000 through 2018. The cycle goes on. Not only snowier but also colder. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 39 minutes ago, MJO812 said: New JMA for December has a nice negative NAO for the east. Nothing warm about it on the latest model run. The negative Nao is pointless if the pacific is so horrible. We will have a -nao next week when you’re in the 50’s 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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