Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,497
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    PhiEaglesfan712
    Newest Member
    PhiEaglesfan712
    Joined

November Mid/Long Range Discussion


WxUSAF
 Share

Recommended Posts

12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Not sure the lowlands see first flakes as the GFS op has been suggesting, but nice to see h5 looks like this in the near term. A month later this might be pretty interesting. As it stands, the western highlands may very well see some snow during these 2 periods.

1699293600-sT2ovxRGHKY.png

1699596000-kmpCAXWFvlU.png

Also good to see troughing n of hawaii, and as it moves east, another trough is about to reload to its west. I’m seeing that as a great sign

  • Like 11
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, we have a pretty good idea on this nino. I’m mostly tracking the mid lat pac and pdo

It's all about how the atmosphere responds now. This is going to be a moderate to maybe strong event by the numbers, but that doesn't mean all that much at this juncture. PDO trend is encouraging. Lets see if the Aleutian low can get established, and in a favorable location. Pretty important in order for us to get the outcome we all want.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Probably lol. As usual, patience will be required. Mid Jan into early March will likely be our wheelhouse, if there is to be one.

WDI for *some* sort of December snowfall is pretty high. I’m hoping we can grab a 2-4” type deal at least before shorts weather for Santa. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, jayyy said:


We take. For the love of god, please no sustained -PNA this winter emoji15.png

Just in general: Nina= Aleutian ridge = -PNA

Nino = Aleutian low = +PNA

Plenty of other variables/modulators though, so these teleconnections are far from locked in or static. With the overall increase in ocean heat content, this stuff becomes even harder to predict.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

WDI for *some* sort of December snowfall is pretty high. I’m hoping we can grab a 2-4” type deal at least before shorts weather for Santa. 

Getting 2" - 4" areawide from a Clipper on Christmas Eve that resets the pattern for an epic January and February would be amazing.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Is that because it help build a western ridge?

Yes, and help sustain it long enough for us to get good chances for double digit snowstorms. A trough north of Hawaii is a classic +ENSO/+PDO/+PNA atmospheric pattern. 

Since we still have a -PDO (albeit not as extreme as it was a month or two ago), we're pinning hopes on it decoupling so that we can still get +PNA.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yes, and help sustain it long enough for us to get good chances for double digit snowstorms. A trough north of Hawaii is a classic +ENSO/+PDO/+PNA atmospheric pattern. 

Since we still have a -PDO (albeit not as extreme as it was a month or two ago), we're pinning hopes on it decoupling so that we can still get +PNA.

Awesome. I'm hoping we don't get some big 18"+ event this year. I don't want to spend that time in a windowless operations center while nothing happens. I'd rather we get smaller 6" - 10" events.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Awesome. I'm hoping we don't get some big 18"+ event this year. I don't want to spend that time in a windowless operations center while nothing happens. I'd rather we get smaller 6" - 10" events.

That’s probably more likely given all the mixed signals we have now. But all it takes is one to go ka-boom, and as ckskinsfan would say, we get obliterated. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...