Prospero Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 8 minutes ago, TPAwx said: TS Eta's endgame track across Cedar Key in Nov 2020 gave us 4 ft along Bayshore. Downtown Gulfport was impacted as well. https://thegabber.com/eta-packs-a-punch-in-gulfport/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 1 hour ago, Hotair said: I’m very concerned over a potential Tampa LF. This storm is not on many folks radar and given it’s already late Sunday and folks go to school and work tomorrow means there’s less free time for any proper preparation Hasn't there been a state of emergency already ordered? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Hasn't there been a state of emergency already ordered? https://www.fox13news.com/weather/tropical-depression-10-sunday-idalia-track-forecast-florida State of Emergency Ahead of the storm, Gov. Ron DeSantis on Saturday declared a state of emergency for 33 Florida counties, including the Tampa Bay Area, "out of an abundance of caution." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 I know Idalia is forecast to speed up, but how fast of a forward speed are we looking at for landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, dan11295 said: I know Idalia is forecast to speed up, but how fast of a forward speed are we looking at for landfall? I think there’s still a fairly sizable split on it, but odds seem to be increasing that it’ll be moving pretty quickly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Well timed microwave pass gives us a good look under the hood 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 38 mph winds with gusts to 49 at the Yucatan Basin Buoy in the past hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 I don't think the circulation is vertically stacked just yet, as impressive as the convective burst is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Nice sunset right now on Cozumel: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 29 minutes ago, dan11295 said: I know Idalia is forecast to speed up, but how fast of a forward speed are we looking at for landfall? Gfs goes from landfall in the big bend to being over cape fear in 18 hours. That's pretty quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 4 minutes ago, dan11295 said: I don't think the circulation is vertically stacked just yet, as impressive as the convective burst is. When the circulation becomes vertically stacked you have a Category 1. So of course, circulation is not stacked as we don't have a category 1 yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 11 minutes ago, Prospero said: Nice sunset right now on Cozumel: Sorta off topic but that is an amazing sunset on the live stream right now. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 For something more on topic I wonder if the recent convective blowup over the core could be an actual indicator of strengthening or just arrested development. Heres a tweet and link to an article on arrested development. IF this isnt arrested development then things could get pretty interesting tonight https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/127/1/1520-0493_1999_127_0132_atcwae_2.0.co_2.xml 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 10 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: For something more on topic I wonder if the recent convective blowup over the core could be an actual indicator of strengthening or just arrested development. Heres a tweet and link to an article on arrested development. IF this isnt arrested development then things could get pretty interesting tonight https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/127/1/1520-0493_1999_127_0132_atcwae_2.0.co_2.xml That link is for TS Franklin, not TS Idalia. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 3 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: Pretty far north here, but it’s also the COAMPS. Opposite of the direction the others have moved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 6 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: That link is for TS Franklin, not TS Idalia. I’m aware but same principle for both. Franklin was just a good recent example. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: I’m aware but same principle for both. Franklin was just a good recent example. Disagree, Idalia does not even have an established CDO yet so what's happening tonight is not in relation to CCC. Idalia's issue is shear ATM. Once convection can stay consistent and shear/minimal dry air can abate, this thing takes off. Pretty much...the vertical column is not stacked yet and that is Idalia's hinderance in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Really don't want this thing to take it's time moving ashore in those warm SST's. Not a great trend to have in this juncture. However...only real silver lining with a slower speed is it will increase the likelihood of an internal process such as an Eyewall Replacement Cycle being induced. Current forecast, showing Idalia moving ashore at a faster speed, does not support internal processes happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 About that shear 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 https://x.com/treycejoneswx/status/1695944488068186158?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yAhttps://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1695972446049112416?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 That buoy is displaying a legit pressure fall. Looking at that, IR, and most importantly radar, it looks like Idalia is trying to take this latest mesovortex and turn it into the beginnings of an inner core. The longer the convective towers can fire absent disruptive shear and dry air intrusion, the more likely it’ll be able to go from mesovortex in a broader circulation to nascent inner core. Seeing convection try to rotate upshear on radar is a meaningful piece of data. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Am I crazy to think that when that 1:30 Recon flight goes through they find Idalia has become a Hurricane. She is blowing up tonight and I’m not seeing anything that’s gonna slow that down in the next 4 hours. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Not crazy at all to presume a cane when recons gets there. It’s very clearly in a RI cycle now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: That buoy is displaying a legit pressure fall. Looking at that, IR, and most importantly radar, it looks like Idalia is trying to take this latest mesovortex and turn it into the beginnings of an inner core. The longer the convective towers can fire absent disruptive shear and dry air intrusion, the more likely it’ll be able to go from mesovortex in a broader circulation to nascent inner core. Seeing convection try to rotate upshear on radar is a meaningful piece of data. I agree, this is likely the beginning of an established inner core being developed. Very impressive to see this right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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