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2023 - tracking the tropics


mcglups
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3 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

That wasn’t a New England landfall 

look At the wiki page 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_New_England_hurricanes

and Sandy was a big anomaly 

Yeah "most" big hits were peak hurricane season.  The later ones into October tend not to be 100% tropical, 1804 1869 I'm guessing were hybrid or ET

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  • 2 weeks later...
10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 Nothing near here,  but a spectacular intensity forecast fail for Hurricane Otis in the EPAC. Not sure I’ve seen anything like it. From barely recognized on globals yesterday to a cat 5 forecasted. Even NHC caught with pants down.

actually just looked at this storm and was kind of shocked 

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49 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 Nothing near here,  but a spectacular intensity forecast fail for Hurricane Otis in the EPAC. Not sure I’ve seen anything like it. From barely recognized on globals yesterday to a cat 5 forecasted. Even NHC caught with pants down.

I was just coming in to post. It’s all time RI in that part of the basin and an all time bust. Broke the RI record from Patricia and the 24 hour forecast from models were dangerously horrific.

33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Josh is missing a cat 5. He must be raging.

I know from personal experience that the ones you miss haunt you as much if not more than the joy that comes with the successful chases. 

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Wow

Hurricane Otis Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182023
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

A nightmare scenario is unfolding for southern Mexico this evening
with rapidly intensifying Otis approaching the coastline.  Satellite
images show that Otis has continued to intensify, with Dvorak
Data-T estimates between 130-145 kt during the past few hours.  The 
initial wind speed is set to 140 kt as a blend of these values, 
making Otis a Category 5 hurricane.  Otis has explosively 
intensified 95 kt during the past 24 hours, a mark only exceeded in 
modern times by Patricia in 2015.

Otis should maintain category 5 status before the hurricane makes 
landfall near the Acapulco area overnight or early on Wednesday. 
The only significant change to mention to the track forecast is 
that it has been shifted to the right due to a recent wobble to the 
east and the latest model trends, and a general north-northwest 
motion at about 8 kt is anticipated through landfall.  Rapid 
weakening is anticipated after landfall, and Otis should dissipate 
tomorrow night over the higher terrain of Mexico.

This is an extremely serious situation for the Acapulco
metropolitan area with the core of the destructive hurricane likely
to come near or over that large city early on Wednesday. There are 
no hurricanes on record even close to this intensity for this part 
of Mexico.


Key Messages:

1. Otis is forecast to be a potentially catastrophic Category 5
hurricane when it reaches the southern coast of Mexico early
Wednesday.  Life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in
portions of the Hurricane Warning area with catastrophic damage
expected.

2. A potentially catastrophic storm surge is expected to produce
life-threatening coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall.  Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

3. Heavy rains from Otis will continue to impact areas of southwest
Mexico this week.  This rainfall will produce flash and urban
flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0300Z 16.1N  99.7W  140 KT 160 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 17.3N 100.1W  105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND
 24H  26/0000Z 18.0N 100.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 36H  26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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  • 1 month later...

Tropical is my truest passion, and this year I had my best peak season forecast yet. A few slop storms got me (RINA), but where it mattered, calling out H and MH and the overall progression, I ended up doing an excellent job. 

WxWatcher007 Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 13 (15)
Hurricanes: 6 (6)
Major Hurricanes: 3 (3)

Emily, Franklin (MH), Gert, Harold, Idalia (MH), Jose, Katia, Lee (MH), Margot (H), Nigel (H), Ophelia, Philippe, Rina, Sean, Tammy (H)

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24 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Tropical is my truest passion, and this year I had my best peak season forecast yet. A few slop storms got me (RINA), but where it mattered, calling out H and MH and the overall progression, I ended up doing an excellent job. 

WxWatcher007 Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 13 (15)
Hurricanes: 6 (6)
Major Hurricanes: 3 (3)

Emily, Franklin (MH), Gert, Harold, Idalia (MH), Jose, Katia, Lee (MH), Margot (H), Nigel (H), Ophelia, Philippe, Rina, Sean, Tammy (H)

well done!  

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On 11/30/2023 at 4:52 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

Tropical is my truest passion, and this year I had my best peak season forecast yet. A few slop storms got me (RINA), but where it mattered, calling out H and MH and the overall progression, I ended up doing an excellent job. 

WxWatcher007 Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 13 (15)
Hurricanes: 6 (6)
Major Hurricanes: 3 (3)

Emily, Franklin (MH), Gert, Harold, Idalia (MH), Jose, Katia, Lee (MH), Margot (H), Nigel (H), Ophelia, Philippe, Rina, Sean, Tammy (H)

Enjoyed that you chased . 

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7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah I’m glad I went. Never know which storm is the storm of the season. Ended up in the right spot.

It so tricky chasing good tropical . It’s pricier and it’s kinda like ..harder to enjoy a good event because many places close down for a cane and then the aftermath is very dicey . 
 

I went to Fl for Dorian and it got stuck in Bahamas and still all the decent hotels in S Fl were closed ..until you went well inland and it wasn’t even forecast to hit at that point 

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