sbnwx85 Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 All eyes are on today but I'm getting more and more concerned about tomorrow's potential. I haven't seen this kind of wording used by this NWS office in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 Starting to see a line of agitated cumulus forming from ILX towards the triple point near Omaha along the warm front. 80/65 running into 55/45. Not the best moisture feed but it's still not bad. Some pre-frontal cells trying to go in MO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 9 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: All eyes are on today but I'm getting more and more concerned about tomorrow's potential. I haven't seen this kind of wording used by this NWS office in a long time. Part of the reason is until Friday we've had crap for even garden variety storms in the spring for the last 3 or 4 years. I mean seriously, our March-June thunderstorm season has sucked horribly. We're not used to it anymore lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 15 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: All eyes are on today but I'm getting more and more concerned about tomorrow's potential. I haven't seen this kind of wording used by this NWS office in a long time. Same here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 80/60 probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 Im goin' fishin'. If they're bitin' the storms a comin' lol. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 I do think given the storm motion of those svr cells over Missouri that more of Illinois should have been included in the tornado watch. I recognize T/Td spread is rather high but I think this will lessen as moisture continues to flow north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miller.b.time Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 IND decided to go with a madlibs AFD this afternoon, it appears. I think their glossary links aren’t rendering correctly lol. Overnight through Wednesday... Multiple rounds of are expected late tonight through the day Wednesday. Strong and plentiful will be present throughout the day. Strong winds will be present not far off the surface and will be able to be brought down. Thus, it will come down to available and features created by . Believe there are at least a couple of potential scenarios for Wednesday, similar to previous thoughts... 1) Strong to severe will persist from the Ozarks into central Indiana late tonight into early Wednesday morning. After this, there will be a lull before more develops along the cold by mid afternoon. Severity of the second line will depend on how much builds between the two rounds. 2) from the Ozarks weakens before it arrives here and dissipates across the area. Additional thunderstorms develop in mid morning to early afternoon. This may be severe if is able to build enough. Additional then forms along the later in the afternoon, which may be severe if can recover. In summary, enough ingredients are there so that some severe storms are . Damaging winds will be the highest threat, but given the amount of , potential boundaries from previous rounds of , and at least a low threat of discrete cells, tornadoes and large are also certainly possible. Uncertainty is on when and where the highest severe threat will be. The aforementioned strong winds mixing down will bring wind gusts up to 40-45 mph even outside of storms. Odds of widespread areas Wind Advisory criteria are borderline, but would rather err on side of caution, especially with some recovery efforts ongoing from last Friday`s tornadoes. Will go with a Wind Advisory from 12Z-00Z. Highs on Wednesday will be in the 70s, even with clouds and rounds of storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 Columbia MO supercell is looking volatile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 Now tor warned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 Rotation in the storm over Lake Michigan about to come on shore towards South Haven MI. Lake not doing shit to it apperently 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 1 minute ago, SolidIcewx said: Rotation in the storm over Lake Michigan about to come on shore towards South Haven MI. Lake not doing shit to it apperently I was about to say that storm has that look to it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 4 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: Rotation in the storm over Lake Michigan about to come on shore towards South Haven MI. Lake not doing shit to it apperently It's an 850mb based cell. Hard to get a tornado out of that so far north of the warm front, but downbursts can certainly penetrate down into a stable surface layer. Also big hail still possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Araqiel Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 4 minutes ago, frostfern said: It's an 850mb based cell. Hard to get a tornado out of that so far north of the warm front, but downbursts can certainly penetrate down into a stable surface layer. Also big hail still possible. Also looks like sidelobe contaminated velocity data if compared with reflectivity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 The area of cells in Missouri is now expanding northeast towards SE Iowa. These are all under 3500+ j/kg SB cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 Good meteorological discussion on that LM cell, guys. Best board in the biz. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 4 minutes ago, Araqiel said: Also looks like sidelobe contaminated velocity data if compared with reflectivity. There's lots of rotation, but it's pretty broad in general. The occasional higher velocity values values seem noisy and inconsistent, like birds or something. These things have a history of bringing damaging winds down to the surface when the RFD surges though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Araqiel Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 1 minute ago, frostfern said: There's lots of rotation, but it's pretty broad. Higher values seem noisy and inconsistent, like birds or something. These things have a history of bringing damaging winds down to the surface when the RFD surges though. What appears to be rotation is not within the storm - put a marker on that ‘couplet’ in any frame and you’ll see it’s way out in the inflow channel, not within the meso. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 If I was to pick a location for the next few hours it would probably be around Keokuk Iowa / Hamilton Illinois, perhaps slightly north of there. There's a band of high helicity and moisture pooling there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 3 minutes ago, Araqiel said: What appears to be rotation is not within the storm - put a marker on that ‘couplet’ in any frame and you’ll see it’s way out in the inflow channel, not within the meso. Yea. That brief couplet wasn't the meso but birds or maybe a microburst or something. I'm not good at figuring out what brief high velocity spikes mean, but if it persists in the same spot more than one scan and shows up from more than one radar it might be something. There is broad rotation all the way up in this cell, but the updraft base is pretty high to spin anything up. The higher dews feeding it are all around 850 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 Storm sw of Hannibal MO developing a hook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 Just now, Indystorm said: Storm sw of Hannibal MO developing a hook Was tor warned earlier but seemed kind of outflowy at the hook. Looks a little better now, but velocity isn't real impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Storm sw of Hannibal MO developing a hook There number of lightning strikes is increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 7 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Storm sw of Hannibal MO developing a hook Some problems with the environment though. Still some cap in place and the LCL is a bit high. MLCAPE and SRH are great though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 3 hours ago, tuanis said: Blanket warnings for the Chicago metro. Velocity scans not showing much in the way of winds per the warning text. Definitely several pockets of hail, especially west of the Elgin area and north of Rockford. Edit: even getting the "giant hail" depiction per hydrometeor classification near Machesney Park (Rockford area). Let's keep that stuff away from here please. Two rounds of pea sized hail in South Elgin occured around 1 PMish. Weird thing was after the first round it got sunny for about 10 minutes and then another downpour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 4 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Some problems with the environment though. Still some cap in place and the LCL is a bit high. MLCAPE and SRH are great though There's mixing impinging from the west. The environment looks more moist over Illinois if the cells over NE Missouri can get there and organize. Still waiting for the northern cluster to congeal into something. Kind of a mess at present. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyweather Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 752 ACUS11 KWNS 041954 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041954 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-042230- Mesoscale Discussion 0457 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Tue Apr 04 2023 Areas affected...northeast Iowa...far southeast Minnesota...and southwest/central Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 041954Z - 042230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the 22-00z/5pm-7pm CDT time frame. Large hail, damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes appear likely through this evening. A watch will likely be needed in the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Some uncertainty remains regarding how far north the surface warm front will advance across the region through this evening. Most guidance suggest the boundary will lift into far southern WI by this evening. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the surface low across western/central IA in the next couple hours. Storms will track northeast near, or to the cool side, of the northward-advancing warm front. This will likely result in most convection remaining elevated, though a couple of storms could become rooted in the frontal zone across northeast IA or far southwest WI. The storms that can ingest better quality low-level moisture and vorticity along the boundary will have a better opportunity to produce a tornado. However, current thinking is that convection will largely remain elevated. Nevertheless, strong vertical shear will support supercells. Very steep midlevel lapse rates will support MUCAPE around 500-1500 J/kg and large hail will be possible. Fast moving storms, coupled with strong deep-layer flow also will support some damaging wind potential. A relative max in severe potential will exist across southern portions of the MCD where at least some chance of near surface-based convection will exist within the warm frontal zone. With northward extent, overall potential will gradually lessen. A watch will likely be needed in the next couple of hours. ..Leitman/Hart.. 04/04/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX... LAT...LON 42419421 42639424 42909410 43609329 44059229 44159170 44359055 44278942 44168904 43898880 43638873 43048877 42538916 42438961 42499184 42419421 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 13 minutes ago, michaelmantis said: Two rounds of pea sized hail in South Elgin occured around 1 PMish. Weird thing was after the first round it got sunny for about 10 minutes and then another downpour. Solid updrafts help clear it out a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 548 PM EDT Tue Apr 4 2023 The National Weather Service in Grand Rapids has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Allegan County in southwestern Michigan... * Until 645 PM EDT. * At 548 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 6 miles southwest of Fennville, or 9 miles northeast of South Haven, moving northeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...Quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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