Araqiel
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Everything posted by Araqiel
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Yep, cold front overtaking dryline. KICT has a great depiction of the two colliding.
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What appears to be rotation is not within the storm - put a marker on that ‘couplet’ in any frame and you’ll see it’s way out in the inflow channel, not within the meso.
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Also looks like sidelobe contaminated velocity data if compared with reflectivity.
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"Moderate rock..." Nirvana fans know what comes next...
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Outflow boundary sagging across the panhandle could be a feature to watch.
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Are things running a little faster than the HRRR suggests? Current radar looks more like the 12Z than the 10Z frame to me.
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^That Hudson Bay vortex just will not die will it? Feels like it's been there more often than not for going on two years now.
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Looks like they just upgraded to Moderate risk.
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Some lovely gravity wave action over the TX Panhandle right now, meso sector is a joy.
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Looking at a multi-hour radar mosaic loop its almost as if everything east of OKC took on a more eastward motion around 19:45Z.
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First I've noticed it, with the talk of other offices leaving out the 'capable of' line maybe I'm just paying more attention to that.
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On the Lenapah rotation warning: * At 304 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm with strong low level rotation that could produce a tornado at any time was located 5 miles northeast of Lenapah, moving northeast at 30 mph. Unusual wording?
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That PDS-warned storm looks a lot like a constructive interaction as the other storm approached from the south, more obvious on sat.
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Just saw that rotation pop up, near the northern end of the polygon too. Goes to show you have to respect the polygon.
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That northern OK storm went full shitkicker mode at the drop of a hat.
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One just north of Okmulgee is getting its act together now as well.
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Has one now, justified a few scans ago going by KINX radar.
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You can find that here: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=guidance_tor_spchazcal_024h§or=conus&rd=20190430&rt=1200 This is the 24-hr calibrated tornado probs under SPC Guidance.
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From the above-mentioned Twitter feed (also should have said 1630Z there):
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If you want post-event verification stats follow @jimmyc42 on Twitter. SPC categories are based on probabilities so you can't really just go by the description of the category. 17 tornadoes and 493 wind reports probably verified the 10/45% tor/wind probs nicely - they actually expanded the moderate at 2000Z which wouldn't have happened if they felt it was going off-track.
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Isn’t there a couplet and TDS all the way from Spiveys Corner to the Smithfield warning polygon here? That started out as ‘a tornado was reported...’ but still radar-indicated too which seems odd.
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The outflow boundary I mentioned earlier pushing ahead of the line over SC looks to be playing a part in getting these more discrete cells to develop as they cross into SE NC. Loop is 38MB for those on data. GOES-16 IR loop
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Couple of decent outflow boundaries over SC that have pushed ahead of the line; looks like there's a small east-west OFB from the sub-severe convection over eastern NC just north of the central-southern NC/SC border as well.
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That must be an error I'd have thought; you can get some odd polygons on CWA boundaries (that explains the top-right corner on this one) but this doesn't even fit a county outline.
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