Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23

[rclab]

Good morning everyone. Ref: the earthquake, I heard it more than felt it. A grinding loud sound, no shake or movement. Surprising the pups didn’t even bark. I pray everyone is well. As always …..

[LibertyBell]

the other one was a gentle shaking where I heard sloshing of water, this one was more like someone grabbing you and shaking you hard, that one was fun, this one was scary

[Volcanic Winter]

Nothing like starting your day with a lovely intraplate mag 4.8 quake. Shook Hillside pretty good! 

Lots of ancient buried and inactive faults around the fall line from when we were stapled into Pangea. They can occasionally still groan and shift enough to produce quakes like this, though they aren’t super common. Pretty cool!

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, rclab said:

Good morning everyone. Ref: the earthquake, I heard it more than felt it. A grinding loud sound, no shake or movement. Surprising the pups didn’t even bark. I pray everyone is well. As always …..

this was the most violent shaking I have ever felt and it lasted a long time

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Volcanic Winter said:

Nothing like starting your day with a lovely intraplate mag 4.8 quake. 

hell no this was a lot stronger than that

I remember the 5.8 from August 2011, this was MUCH stronger

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

5.5 magnitude 

5.5 makes more sense

[Volcanic Winter]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

hell no this was a lot stronger than that

I remember the 5.8 from August 2011, this was MUCH stronger

That quake was in Virginia. We were much more proximal to this quake. 

Ascertaining the exact epicenter, magnitude, and depth is somewhat inexact and gets refined when data is reviewed after the fact. 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Volcanic Winter said:

That quake was in Virginia. We were much more proximal to this quake. 

Can we find a connection between these and heavy rainfalls that happened just prior?  August 2011 was a very rainy month.  We've been in a very rainy pattern now too.

I remember reading scientific papers linking heavy rainfalls and earthquakes-- is it a possibility?

[Volcanic Winter]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Can we find a connection between these and heavy rainfalls that happened just prior?  August 2011 was a very rainy month.  We've been in a very rainy pattern now too.

I remember reading scientific papers linking heavy rainfalls and earthquakes-- is it a possibility?

I’m not super well versed in all that, the majority of what I study about earthquakes are in relation to volcanoes. 

I do think that sounds plausible, an over abundance of ground water saturating those deep inactive faults and possibly lubricating or shifting the mass balance enough to slip a bit? Sure, sounds plausible but I can’t really comment further. 

[TheClimateChanger]

On 3/26/2024 at 3:27 PM, donsutherland1 said:

In his A Winter Season, James Fisher wrote December in Edinburgh in the early 19th century:

In midst of dark December's howling blast, out from his quarters in the frigid zone comes surly Winter, in his car of iron, drawn on by furious, foaming, snow-white steeds, escorted by his angry northern band; which raves, and roars, and rages all around despoiling Nature of her every charm; and now sits down to storm her empire all… Falling rapidly, drifting on heaps, are the flakes of now, while the boisterous wind, roaring furiously, disbranches the trees, and threatens to overturn every habitation of man. To heighten the terrific scene... what a flash of lightning, followed by a tremendously loud clap of thunder!

A lot of that could have applied to December in New York City during its first 30 years of record (1869-1898). December is now increasingly taking on the character of late November. The changes have been so dramatic that January today (1995-2024) is almost identical to what December was like during New York City’s first 30 years of recordkeeping.

Good post, Don. Even more striking when you look at the values observed by the U.S. Army Signal Corps at Fort Columbus [later known as Fort Jay] on Governor's Island, south of Manhattan, from 1821-1854. In that stretch of 34 Decembers, only 2 had a mean temperature in excess of the current normal (41.3, 1829; and 40.4F, 1852). One other year (1848) had a mean right on par with the current normal of 39.3F. While the proximity to water could lead to some cooling in the spring and summer, relative to Central Park, I would assume the proximity to water would lead this site to be warmer in the cold season.

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I’m not super well versed in all that, the majority of what I study about earthquakes are in relation to volcanoes. 

I do think that sounds plausible, an over abundance of ground water saturating those deep inactive faults and possibly lubricating or shifting the mass balance enough to slip a bit? Sure, sounds plausible but I can’t really comment further. 

I remember reading this happens around fracking sites because of wastewater injection =\

One of the many reasons fracking was banned in our state.

[TheClimateChanger]

3 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Good post, Don. Even more striking when you look at the values observed by the U.S. Army Signal Corps at Fort Columbus [later known as Fort Jay] on Governor's Island, south of Manhattan, from 1821-1854. In that stretch of 34 Decembers, only 2 had a mean temperature in excess of the current normal (41.3, 1829; and 40.4F, 1852). One other year (1848) had a mean right on par with the current normal of 39.3F. While the proximity to water could lead to some cooling in the spring and summer, relative to Central Park, I would assume the proximity to water would lead this site to be warmer in the cold season.

On average, I think we can surmise that the mid 19th century climate of New York would have been comparable to that of present-day Albany, about 135 miles to the north (according to Wikipedia). It's still slightly warmer than recent years at KALB, but the airport is at nearly 300' elevation, while the bulk of the city of Albany is only around 100' elevation.

[TheClimateChanger]

6 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Good post, Don. Even more striking when you look at the values observed by the U.S. Army Signal Corps at Fort Columbus [later known as Fort Jay] on Governor's Island, south of Manhattan, from 1821-1854. In that stretch of 34 Decembers, only 2 had a mean temperature in excess of the current normal (41.3, 1829; and 40.4F, 1852). One other year (1848) had a mean right on par with the current normal of 39.3F. While the proximity to water could lead to some cooling in the spring and summer, relative to Central Park, I would assume the proximity to water would lead this site to be warmer in the cold season.

That 47.6F in 1836 is very interesting. I've read in numerous sources of a "great refrigeration" that occurred from about 1835-1838 on par with that of 1816. There was reportedly 2" of snow in Guangzhou [Canton], China in February 1835, suggesting it very well could have been a global [or at least hemisphere-wide] phenomenon.

Berkeley Earth blames it on Cosiguina, which erupted in January 1835, and says there was a global land average temperature drop of 0.75C. However, it doesn't seem strong enough to me for that degree of response.

Cosigüina - Wikipedia

[donsutherland1]

9 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Good post, Don. Even more striking when you look at the values observed by the U.S. Army Signal Corps at Fort Columbus [later known as Fort Jay] on Governor's Island, south of Manhattan, from 1821-1854. In that stretch of 34 Decembers, only 2 had a mean temperature in excess of the current normal (41.3, 1829; and 40.4F, 1852). One other year (1848) had a mean right on par with the current normal of 39.3F. While the proximity to water could lead to some cooling in the spring and summer, relative to Central Park, I would assume the proximity to water would lead this site to be warmer in the cold season.

Great information. Yes, the water almost certainly moderated the overall figures. Now, what was unusual warmth is becoming the norm as the climate continues to warm.

[TheClimateChanger]

4 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

That 47.6F in 1836 is very interesting. I've read in numerous sources of a "great refrigeration" that occurred from about 1835-1838 on par with that of 1816. There was reportedly 2" of snow in Guangzhou [Canton], China in February 1835, suggesting it very well could have been a global [or at least hemisphere-wide] phenomenon.

Berkeley Earth blames it on Cosiguina, which erupted in January 1835, and says there was a global land average temperature drop of 0.75C. However, it doesn't seem strong enough to me for that degree of response.

Cosigüina - Wikipedia

Interestingly, Volcano Osorno apparently erupted in Chile one day prior to the big Cosiguina eruption in Nicaragua. Charles Darwin also believed there was an eruption of Aconcagua, but that's an extinct paleovolcano. Perhaps there was a third eruption in Argentina? Or he just lost his bearings and actually witnessed the eruptions of Osorno and Cosiguina?

[rclab]

46 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

this was the most violent shaking I have ever felt and it lasted a long time

Good morning Liberty. I must be really old if I can’t even feel the ground shake. As always …

[JetsPens87]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

5.5 magnitude 

4.8

[MJO812]

19 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

4.8

Yep bad data

[IrishRob17]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep bad data

Agreed, that is bad data.  USGS has it at 4.8

[Rjay]

Metsfan learning about earthquakes today

 

[MJO812]

[Rjay]

[rclab]

On 4/5/2024 at 7:33 PM, MJO812 said:

 

On 4/5/2024 at 7:35 PM, Rjay said:

I tried putting these two together but Rjays avatar kept getting in the way. As always ….

[Volcanic Winter]

I was not aware the Ramapo fault could harbor a mag 6+ risk:

https://www.earth.columbia.edu/articles/view/2235

That would have to be a ‘full margin rupture,’ or the majority of the length of the fault slipping at once. These ancient ‘inactive’ faults from past geological eras are tricky because they can be dormant for a very long time and suddenly awaken. Think the New Madrid quakes which were catastrophic, though we wouldn’t see anything reaching that level here. A 6-7 though would obviously be very damaging in this region. It’s interesting because we’re so far away from a plate boundary (hence the Ramapo is an ancient fault from the time of Pangea), it’s believed stress is slowly loaded on the fault by the mid Atlantic ridge under Iceland, all that distance from here. It makes total sense, it’s just not very obvious.  

My personal opinion is that we have no idea of the recurrence time, it could be thousands of years between those kind of full margin quakes at a slow fault like this, so it’s most likely not something we’d have to worry about in our lifetimes. 

Still, interesting.

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I was not aware the Ramapo fault could harbor a mag 6+ risk:

https://www.earth.columbia.edu/articles/view/2235

That would have to be a ‘full margin rupture,’ or the majority of the length of the fault slipping at once. These ancient ‘inactive’ faults from past geological eras are tricky because they can be dormant for a very long time and suddenly awaken. Think the New Madrid quakes which were catastrophic, though we wouldn’t see anything reaching that level here. A 6-7 though would obviously be very damaging in this region. It’s interesting because we’re so far away from a plate boundary (hence the Ramapo is an ancient fault from the time of Pangea), it’s believed stress is slowly loaded on the fault by the mid Atlantic ridge under Iceland, all that distance from here. It makes total sense, it’s just not very obvious.  

My personal opinion is that we have no idea of the recurrence time, it could be thousands of years between those kind of full margin quakes at a slow fault like this, so it’s most likely not something we’d have to worry about in our lifetimes. 

Still, interesting.

Interesting about Pangaea.  I wonder if there are old dinosaur bones buried deep under the Tristate area lol

[Volcanic Winter]

@LibertyBell

Did you know the Palisades are a local outcrop of one of the largest flood basalt eruptions in the past billion years? CAMP - Central Atlantic Magmatic Province, an enormous series of lava flow eruptions along the seams of Pangea when it first began to break apart. We actually have some interesting geology in the region apart from the boring sedimentary coastal plain. At one point the Appalachians were earth’s Himalayas of the distant past, now long eroded to a mere shadow of their former enormity. 

We know flood basalts are most common under large stretches of continental crust (especially when the continents are in a supercontinent configuration), often coinciding with the rifting episodes that ultimately split them apart. It’s why a hypothesized location for earth’s next flood basalt is the East African Rift, where Somalia is slowly being separated from continental Africa and most of Africa’s extant volcanism is currently located. The Virunga plateau is a large magma bulge, and there could be something of a proto-plume down there which would one day yield a major flood basalt episode. This is like hundreds of thousands to millions of years in the future though. 

There hasn’t been a flood basalt episode on earth since the Columbia River Basalts of the PNW ~16mya, which is the hypothesized birth of the Yellowstone plume which traces to the Yellowstone supervolcano today. 
 

There’s also a supposed growing magma body under parts of New England, and the Adirondacks are some odd magmatic uplift feature and could also be a small plume in its early stages. Who knows what the distant future could hold there, could be some major volcanic episodes if the inflation that made the mountains continues. 

[MJO812]

I'm buying this

[donsutherland1]

New York City's Warming Winters:

[donsutherland1]

23 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

New York City's Warming Winters:

The above table was broken down into decadal periods:

[donsutherland1]

Climate Model Forecasts for Future Winters for RCP 4.5 (most likely scenario):