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Winter El Nino Tracking Thread 2023-2024


Ji
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18 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

seasonals almost never predict below average temps for entire months at that range, so the CanSIPS showing a solidly below average February is quite impressive

if we get a central-based Nino we're probably going to clean up. those are almost always money

true... but there is a reason for that.  Yea a central/west based nino gives us the best chance to get the small minimal amount of cold that still exists at the mid latitudes to be over us (other then siberia which is sheltered from the impacts of the on fire global SSTs) but it does nothing to the larger scale problem that is the reason we are struggling overall, which is if 75% of the mid latitudes are above average temperatures...the odds are already stacked way against us before we even worry about any specific longwave pattern.  

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1 hour ago, Ji said:

January  2016 was a 30 day event for us....15 days to track and 15 days aftermath...it took a month of my time which was 33% of my winter. Im good with that kind of event

It was a 30 hour snow event and was gone in two weeks. Nothing before and nothing after. Awful winter.

But maybe we will get lucky and have an year like 97-98

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The patterns sort of ante'd up in extremes this Winter. I would say, for example, a normal effective -NAO is >+1000dm, vs +600-700dm's historically. Because of expectations it will never reach that, although the potential is there at this time. If we don't stretch the pattern, it will keep stagnating snowless for us which is what I fear... A little off topic but that's what's going on. 

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24 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It was a 30 hour snow event and was gone in two weeks. Nothing before and nothing after. Awful winter.

But maybe we will get lucky and have an year like 97-98

09-10 was horrible. I've never seen 3 blizzards melt in 3 days each time like that. Would have rather there been no snow. That's why the start of the warm/stagnant pattern was somewhere 05-08. 

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2 hours ago, Ji said:

January  2016 was a 30 day event for us....15 days to track and 15 days aftermath...it took a month of my time which was 33% of my winter. Im good with that kind of event

It was NYC's biggest snowstorm.  I'll take that any day of the week, even if the rest of the winter is shit.

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5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

holy fuck lmao 

absolutely insane take 

lol i was in Philly that year in grad school and the only part that sucked was that the city didn't plow or shovel shit.  I had to walk across the Walnut St bridge to class in 2-3ft of snow multiple times.  But the storms were incredible.

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