The 4 Seasons Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: It’s gotta be drunk lol Taking notes from the NAM and its wild swings Speaking of which, the 3k is practically a whiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 8 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: That was a big jump NE for this time lead on the euro, wow Lol…exactly my point the whole time with this. Euro now has .50” of precip here. Should I believe it…cuz everybody keeps telling me it’s the best model hands down? Lmfao… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Lol…exactly my point the whole time with this. Euro now has .50” of precip here. Should I believe it…cuz everybody keeps telling me it’s the best model hands down? Lmfao… It is, but thats not saying much either. I mean you couldnt honestly put any model above it right? Maybe you could argue the GFS but that would be it. And my opinion its still #2 but maybe not by as much as it used to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: It is, but thats not saying much either. I mean you couldnt honestly put any model above it right? Maybe you could argue the GFS but that would be it. And my opinion its still #2 but maybe not by as much as it used to be. Depending on the situation, I would personally put the GFS slightly ahead of it myself (God, that STILL hurts to say) But you hit the nail on the head... they're all lacking. The number 2 analogy kinda works for me regarding guidance and the overall pattern we're in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: It is, but thats not saying much either. I mean you couldnt honestly put any model above it right? Maybe you could argue the GFS but that would be it. And my opinion its still #2 but maybe not by as much as it used to be. Ya that’s what I’ve been saying/meaning with regard to your last sentence. So according to the latest Euro I get solid advisory snow here Friday night. ? Let’s see if the GFS jumps back on board? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 That’s an interesting move by a model that typically doesn’t make big moves. We’ll see shortly if the NAM can come in with a big bump too…I’d be inclined to think it’s real if it does. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That’s an interesting move by a model that typically doesn’t make big moves. We’ll see shortly if the NAM can come in with a big bump too…I’d be inclined to think it’s real if it does. Majority of EPS members look very similar. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Yuge jump by the EURO… Interesting to see if this is just a head fake. I mean it’s only Wednesday eve, hold on to your Weenies we might just have a positive trend on our hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 CT magic if that pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Another CT special 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 9, 2023 Author Share Posted March 9, 2023 NAM cut back for the 4th consecutive run after the nice 00z last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Yeah, NAM isn't buying it. Although it looks like the 3km is bumping NE from 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 9, 2023 Author Share Posted March 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, Thunderblizzard said: Yeah, NAM isn't buying it. Although it looks like the 3km is bumping NE from 18z. Ya 3km is well north from 18z.. matches the 12km now. Bring a coating to 2” to SWCT only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Ya 3km is well north from 18z.. matches the 12km now. Bring a coating to 2” to SWCT only So would you call that a nod to the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 9, 2023 Author Share Posted March 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: So would you call that a nod to the Euro? Well it matches the other NAM now. Leaves a lot to be desired but it’s the NAM lol .. if euro holds serve at 00z I’ll definitely be more interested. Wouldn’t hurt to see the gfs bump up some more too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Well it matches the other NAM now. Leaves a lot to be desired but it’s the NAM lol .. if euro holds serve at 00z I’ll definitely be more interested. Wouldn’t hurt to see the gfs bump up some more too. GFS was juiced up, then cut back lil by lil after the Euro went south. Now Euro wigs out and swings it back up in here lol….crazy shit! If the Euro doesn’t hold serve at 0z, that’s a shitty way to flip flop at 2 days lead…not a very stable look for the best model… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 RGEM is making a nice bump NE compared to the 18z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, Thunderblizzard said: RGEM is making a nice bump NE compared to the 18z run. We’ll now that’s Two models…hmmm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: We’ll now that’s Two models…hmmm Just one for 0Z. NAM was a big miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 HRRR was getting it pretty far NE at hour 48 if you want to count that... but it's the long range HRRR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Just one for 0Z. NAM was a big miss. You know what I mean… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: You know what I mean… I'm hoping the Euro at 18Z was onto something but it may have been a hiccup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 GFS is on your side SW CT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Here comes the GFS... decently north at hour 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 0.5" QPF into SW CT... looks like the 18z Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: GFS is on your side SW CT! I think we have a lil trend here… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Damn-that's 6-10 for NYC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Wow - the GFS is bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Just now, weathafella said: Damn-that's 6-10 for NYC! Be funny if this roars back…may help Monday/Tuesday if it does…more confluence..? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Yeah it’s decent… It closes off that 500 mb surface there … implies bit of in situ frontogenic forcing. Even hints IVT convergence NYC does well … even though it has tosnow at 12 in./hr to stick anywhere downtown at this time of year in that thermal cauldron of a city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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