Wmsptwx Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Nws really not feeling this event has us in IPT mostly rain and less that half of an inch accums. We have nothing to complain about after mondays surprise 3-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Still hope for an Easter snow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 26 minutes ago, paweather said: Models teased us as usual or at least for me. I doubt we get anything other than a few mood flakes. I've been blowing the trough axis horn for a while now, as thats been my worry. While we have the NAO helping, the persistent ridging out in front of the events is still hurting our chances. Yes, the boundary layer has dropped notably closer, but its still not enough for many in our group. That's all I've been trying to say. Northern crew should do ok/well. Yay for them. IMO thermal profiles while better, are still marginal (looking at 850's/2m temps) and knowing that its almost mid march. I'm just tempering expectations through this period. Of course the snowhound in me wants this to happen, but the realist has hold of the leash. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 9, 2023 Author Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I've been blowing the trough axis horn for a while now, as thats been my worry. While we have the NAO helping, the persistent ridging out in front of the events is still hurting our chances. Yes, the boundary layer has dropped notably closer, but its still not enough for many in our group. That's all I've been trying to say. Northern crew should do ok/well. Yay for them. IMO thermal profiles while better, are still marginal (looking at 850's/2m temps) and knowing that its almost mid march. I'm just tempering expectations through this period. Of course the snowhound in me wants this to happen, but the realist has hold of the leash. I think the writing is on the wall the rest of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Still hope for an Easter snowMakes the Easter Cross hunt a little more eventful. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, sauss06 said: Still hope for an Easter snow I'll be in Texas dodging tornadoes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Say it with me: It's over lolSent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 9, 2023 Author Share Posted March 9, 2023 Just now, Atomixwx said: Say it with me: It's over lol Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk It's over. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 33 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Yeah it's been a bit depressing perusing the models this morning. I'm not giving up hope beyond Friday but it would be quite fitting for this winter to end with another series of disappointments. We'll keep scouring for signs of life though, and like I've said previously the ULL pattern could at least be interesting for a couple days. It is the best looking pattern that we've had, but as some of us saw it coming, this year has been proving that persistence (WAR/SER) coupled w/ a bad PNA flow regime, has been stout, and something that needs alot to overcome. We need better PNA ridging to get better troughing here in the east. I'm not saying the upcoming events are doa, and I'm hopeful we can score w/ one of them, but we really are at the back end of the window (no matter how good things look in this horrid winter), so one needs to keep that in mind when looking at snow maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Say it with me: It's over lol Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk in order for something to be over it needs to start. this winter never started. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 7 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Say it with me: It's over lol Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Things nonexistent can't cease. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Well I feel like a bit of a dick. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service State College PA1033 AM EST Thu Mar 9 2023PAZ004-005-010-011-017-018-100345-/O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0012.230310T1200Z-230311T1200Z/Warren-McKean-Elk-Cameron-Clearfield-Northern Centre-Including the cities of Warren, Bradford, St. Marys, Ridgway,Emporium, DuBois, Clearfield, and Philipsburg1033 AM EST Thu Mar 9 2023...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM ESTSATURDAY...* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches.* WHERE...The Allegheny Plateau.* WHEN...From 7 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday.* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commutes.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The snow will be heaviest during the late morning to early evening.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and PennsylvaniaTurnpike Commission remind motorists to adjust speeds based ondriving conditions as winter weather impacts will include snowcovered roads and limited visibility.Call 5 1 1 or visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadwayand traffic conditions.To report snow or ice, post to the NWS State College Facebookpage, use Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or visit weather.gov/ctp.&&$$Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Well I feel like a bit of a dick. Northern 1/2 of the state has looked good for days now. Not sure why you are surprised?? I'll be in Houtzdale enjoying this snow w/ you tomorrow night. My comments about things not looking good were more for the LSV/souther crew that may be in trouble thermally for the next couple events. Central/northers should have some fun for both. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Northern 1/2 of the state has looked good for days now. Not sure why you are surprised?? I'll be in Houtzdale enjoying this snow w/ you tomorrow night. My comments about things not looking good were more for the LSV/souther crew that may be in trouble thermally for the next couple events. Central/northers should have some fun for both. Yep. That whole "State College to Sunbury and points north" area I mentioned a couple days back has always looked solid. My buddy's cabin up at 1800' near the Tioga/Potter border made out great with the last event and is set up nice for this one. Granted, that spot is almost always set up well ha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Yep. That whole "State College to Sunbury and points north" area I mentioned a couple days back has always looked solid. My buddy's cabin up at 1800' near the Tioga/Potter border made out great with the last event and is set up nice for this one. Granted, that spot is almost always set up well ha. My place in Gaines got 9" from last event. Couple good days of snowmobiling from what I've seen on SM. I'da posted pics from cams, but I get grilled enough in here.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 9, 2023 Author Share Posted March 9, 2023 Around 210, 216 is the time to watch for on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: My place in Gaines got 9" from last event. Couple good days of snowmobiling from what I've seen on SM. I'da posted pics from cams, but I get grilled enough in here.... Nice. That's about exactly what he got as well. He has the luxury of being completely north facing too, so the pack always holds really well. The cams on the PA Grand Canyon Snowmobile Club website have always been my go-to source. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 56 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Say it with me: It's over lol Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk isn't that a Loverboy song? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 24 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Nice. That's about exactly what he got as well. He has the luxury of being completely north facing too, so the pack always holds really well. The cams on the PA Grand Canyon Snowmobile Club website have always been my go-to source. Glad you like the PAGCSC website. I helped build it a few years ago and was webmaster until last year when I said that I had my fill of helping w/ the club. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 I guess the model bad performance really has people down...both the cmc and gfs have snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 9, 2023 Author Share Posted March 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I guess the model bad performance really has people down...both the cmc and gfs have snows. Sorry I am disappointed. Down here we will see flakes not accumulate too much tomorrow into Monday. C and N Pa will do well it seems. Best chance to the end the season is 210 through 216 on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/03/09/locations-lots-little-snow-winter/?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_source=twitter Interstate 95 megalopolis from Washington to Boston, with amounts 1 to 25 percent of seasonal average — The snowfall deficits in this region are historic. Washington has 0.4 inches, compared to the seasonal average of 13.7 inches. Philadelphia has 0.3 inches, compared to the seasonal average of 23.1 inches. New York has 2.2 inches, compared to the seasonal average of 29.8 inches. Boston has 10.9 inches, compared to the seasonal average of 49.2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 9, 2023 Author Share Posted March 9, 2023 Yippeeeee! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 14 minutes ago, paweather said: Yippeeeee! Looks like the ITT express needs to head north for rd#1. My guess is some seats have come avail. Suckasswinter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: Northern 1/2 of the state has looked good for days now. Not sure why you are surprised?? I'll be in Houtzdale enjoying this snow w/ you tomorrow night. My comments about things not looking good were more for the LSV/souther crew that may be in trouble thermally for the next couple events. Central/northers should have some fun for both. Yeah I'm pretty much convinced it's over around Harrisburg and south. You guys north are still in the game though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Welp... A 995 low pressure off of OBX and this is my result: A rainstorm. Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Welp... A 995 low pressure off of OBX and this is my result: A rainstorm. Sigh. It eventually does pull in the cold air and drops like 8" on much of Lancaster County, but yeah, a very bizarre depiction. A lot of changes yet with this one, me thinks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 IMO the Monday storm could be the best one to hang your snow hats on.... At least is a miller A coming from the south and staying under us. Best upside chance at big fun me thinks. After that NAO heads for neutral, and no other overwhelming signs to offset persistence of the season. GFS still way south of Euro, so a consensus blend still give this one a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 9, 2023 Author Share Posted March 9, 2023 13 minutes ago, pasnownut said: IMO the Monday storm could be the best one to hang your snow hats on.... At least is a miller A coming from the south and staying under us. Best upside chance at big fun me thinks. After that NAO heads for neutral, and no other overwhelming signs to offset persistence of the season. GFS still way south of Euro, so a consensus blend still give this one a chance. I'm hanging my snow hat on next winter. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 I'm excited to see mood flakes tomorrow. Maybe even sticks on car rooftops that haven't been driven in a few hours. I'm honest. I haven't seen snowflakes but four or five times this year. Take the highlights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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