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The Ides of March end of Winter 2023


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3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The CMC has been teasing with a surprise snow Monday night as a piece of energy (clipper like) comes at us from the Northwest.  GFS has it too far north at this point.  Something to watch after our winter threat tomorrow. 

WeatherWorld had this last night on their extended forecast and JB mentioned this a few days ago as to what could happen. Crickets from NWS in their forecast. But we'll see what happens many days to go.

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15 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

WeatherWorld had this last night on their extended forecast and JB mentioned this a few days ago as to what could happen. Crickets from NWS in their forecast. But we'll see what happens many days to go.

The GFS is too far north and the NWS does seem to go with the model flying their colors for MR.    I think you might be in a good position LSV wise for tomorrow. 

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  • paweather changed the title to The Ides of March end of Winter 2023
Today may be the warmest day through at least March 20th. Today we should see temps well into the 50's. Normal temps for the 1st week of March are in the mid to upper 40's across the County. We should see some much needed rain come Friday into Friday night with over an inch of rain possible. Through yesterday we are over 2 inches below normal in water equivalent precipitation this year...much of course due to our snow drought. We should see well below normal temperatures return by the middle of next week and may last for at least 10 days with even some snow chances before the end of the month. March has had some of our largest snowstorms in Chester County especially across the more elevated terrain as I will show later in a detail of some memorable late season snowstorms.
 
Records for today: High 75 (1972) / Low 8 (1950) / Precipitation 1.18" (1994) / Snow 10.0" (1914)
image.png.8baf449d68a079d14a84d6a3f6a610c1.png
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Looks like about .02" of rain here.  My official February totals were 1.52" liquid and .1" of sleet.  By "official" I mean my interpolated values from the roughly 3,734 sources that I use for precipitation data, as I still don't have a gauge up at the new place ha.  Luckily, I am surrounded on all sides by some pretty reliable WU stations in close proximity.

National high of 105 at Falcon Lake, TX.  Been a minute since I've seen anything over 100, so yeah, it's coming.  Low was -19 at Seagull lake, MN.

Tomorrow is a nothing burger down here.  Hoping for one last miracle in that mid-March timeframe everyone is humming about.  After that, let's get on with Spring.  Bu-bye.

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1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Looks like about .02" of rain here.  My official February totals were 1.52" liquid and .1" of sleet.  By "official" I mean my interpolated values from the roughly 3,734 sources that I use for precipitation data, as I still don't have a gauge up at the new place ha.  Luckily, I am surrounded on all sides by some pretty reliable WU stations in close proximity.

National high of 105 at Falcon Lake, TX.  Been a minute since I've seen anything over 100, so yeah, it's coming.  Low was -19 at Seagull lake, MN.

Tomorrow is a nothing burger down here.  Hoping for one last miracle in that mid-March timeframe everyone is humming about.  After that, let's get on with Spring.  Bu-bye.

This whole winter has been a nothin burger.  Tomorrow will be at best a couple hours of mixed for central and maybe a bit more for NE'rs, but to me its no "winter" event....and to most it'll be a just another tease.  

For those touting the Trainer storm for next week, dont look at the GFS, as it has it cutting for Nebraska.  Only way that can work (and it has) is if it goes so far west that the secondary runs the block/boundary here in the NE and forces a pop somewhere off the VA NC coast.  Thats a longshot, but a way to get a storm assuming the blocking starts to take hold.  Still too much time to fret over it.  

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3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

This whole winter has been a nothin burger.  Tomorrow will be at best a couple hours of mixed for central and maybe a bit more for NE'rs, but to me its no "winter" event....and to most it'll be a just another tease.  

For those touting the Trainer storm for next week, dont look at the GFS, as it has it cutting for Nebraska.  Only way that can work (and it has) is if it goes so far west that the secondary runs the block/boundary here in the NE and forces a pop somewhere off the VA NC coast.  Thats a longshot, but a way to get a storm assuming the blocking starts to take hold.  Still too much time to fret over it.  

 

To be clear - I'm all onboard for the timeframe of mid March. I did not pick a single shortwave and christen it as my storm. If the first wave cuts there will be one behind it that won't. (hopefully) The SE ridge should get beaten down as the trough moves east...it might take a cutter to first flush the system before things align in the way that we need. 

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For tomorrows event, 12Z HRRR has a burst of snow for the western LSV up into central PA (after starting as rain) and a burst of sleet down to the SE parts of this forum.  Most of the top 2/3 of PA then convert to a sleet bomb when the main area of precip moves over Sat AM/overnight Fri, while the bottom 1/3 stays rain.    Would be a nice event for the more Northern areas of our forum.    Nam not as friendly with winter precip for tomorrow. 

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18 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

To be clear - I'm all onboard for the timeframe of mid March. I did not pick a single shortwave and christen it as my storm. If the first wave cuts there will be one behind it that won't. (hopefully) The SE ridge should get beaten down as the trough moves east...it might take a cutter to first flush the system before things align in the way that we need. 

Not saying YOU did.  But you've seen the references.  That's what I'm commenting on.  I thought I read you stating that you were never into this weekend, but were targeting next week.  Maybe I was wrong.  NBD regardless.

I know you're hanging your hat on the SSW downwelling to create the meaningful change needed here in the east, as that helps to force the NAO negative.  I've done that plenty myself in the past, but as we both know, that, like tellies it is considered voodoo weather in some circles.  I think it has merit for sure, and hope it comes to light, as I referenced it well over a week ago.  

Only worry is that while we may get the pattern "right", it may be too deep into Morch to really get more than 1 or 2 chances.  Yes, I know '93 and other late events come to mind, but I think that premature at this juncture.  if the look holds till next week at this time...well then peeps can start that chatter....assuming the rest of the ducks hit the pond.  For now, its up in the air.

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

Aside from it being windy as hell Saturday, weekend looks great. Since it won't snow, might as well enjoy the nice days before humidity hits. 

i hate hate hate humidity.

Thanks for the reminder that it's coming.

 

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Nooners, mostly cloudy and 54.  Parsing the models, the CMC moved the Monday threat a bit north so as of now it takes snow out of PA 4 days from now.   Both the GFS and CMC go with a ridge in the west/trough in the east look 7 days out.  Quite chilly with a threat being suppressed on the 9th and 10th.   Parsing fantasy land on the GFS 5 days later, a dual barrel system approaches PA with a dying cutting wave that ruins what would otherwise be a PA wide major snowstorm with heavy snow confined to about 1/2 of the Western and Northern portions of PA when the block does its thing and forces transfer to the southern piece in NC.  Initially this is nothing like the 6Z which focused on different waves though did end up with a similar result.  Changes in 6 hours I would guess.  

 

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2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Nooners, mostly cloudy and 54.  Parsing the models, the CMC moved the Monday threat a bit north so as of now it takes snow out of PA 4 days from now.   Both the GFS and CMC go with a ridge in the west/trough in the east look 7 days out.  Quite chilly with a threat being suppressed on the 9th and 10th.   Parsing fantasy land on the GFS 5 days later, a dual barrel system approaches PA with a dying cutting wave that ruins what would otherwise be a PA wide major snowstorm with heavy snow confined to about 1/2 of the Western and Northern portions of PA when the block does its thing and forces transfer to the southern piece in NC.  Initially this is nothing like the 6Z which focused on different waves though did end up with a similar result.  Changes in 6 hours I would guess.  

 

 

GFS is gradually making moves towards the EPS...all we can ask for at this point. The EPS is remaining steady and I was hoping that the GFS camp would blink first. 

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