TimB Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Now is his time to gloat about the Buc's win last night. You are not going to use me as a pawn to devolve this place into sports talk. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 12 minutes ago, TimB said: You are not going to use me as a pawn to devolve this place into sports talk. We have had short spurts of sports all winter, not my intention to devolve. Buc's looked exciting last night so a congrats more than anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: We have had short spurts of sports all winter, not my intention to devolve. Buc's looked exciting last night so a congrats more than anything. They’re certainly looking like they are headed in the right direction, but I’ve said that far too many times in the last 30 years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 Far NE PA in the mid/upper 40's...LSV mid 80's. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 Especially considering both the strength of the tornado and this area not really rehearsed in F3 preparations. And the people are idiots. I, 19-year-old weenie ran outside with a co-worker to see what we could see and somebody else said something about trying to use the Kissing tower. Both should have gotten sucked up. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 Yoda posted the Sterling AFD Severe discussion in the MA thread. Canderson may have to live vicariously on this one. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A lead wave ahead of a frontal system over the Ohio River Valley will approach the area late Wednesday. Ridging will crest over the area before heights begin to fall by Wednesday night. Given the increasingly warm and unstable airmass, as well as some added lift from terrain and the approach system to the west, a few thunderstorms could develop mainly west of the Blue Ridge late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Sufficient shear will be present for storm organization, so a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms can`t be ruled out. The frontal system is set to cross the region on Thursday. Cooling air moving in aloft above unseasonably warm and moist air near the surface will likely result in moderate instability. This coupled with moderately strong shear and forcing along the approaching front should result in widespread showers and thunderstorms, some of which could become capable of producing severe weather in the form of damaging wind gusts and large hail. Tornado potential is a bit more uncertain given relatively weaker flow closer to the surface, but there is enough shear for supercells. Also, any boundary interactions (terrain/bay/river breeze circulations) could enhance this activity. Temperatures will be very warm with highs well into the 80s and lows in the 60s to around 70 east of the mountains Wednesday into Thursday, 20 to 30 degrees above normal and more akin to summer than spring. Temperatures will take a tumble Thursday night behind the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 On 4/1/2023 at 5:21 PM, canderson said: Hey @MAG5035 you ok? Altoona was knocked out. Yea I was okay in my immediate neighborhood. Main issues seemed to come from the initial arrival of that line and damage here was more sporadic like a typical severe outbreak. The two most significant wind damage incidents noted in and around town was a portion of a bowling alley’s roof blew off and took out lines and hit a house across the street and also a metal roof getting peeled off off another warehouse type building north of Altoona in Bellwood. https://www.altoonamirror.com/news/local-news/2023/04/wind-causes-modest-damage/ The large scale wind event aspect of that storm system was definitely not all that noteworthy here, the highest gust i registered on my weather station was only 34mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: Now is his time to gloat about the Buc's win last night. 1 hour ago, TimB said: You are not going to use me as a pawn to devolve this place into sports talk. Me either, because I won't talk about sports on here. But yeah...I do have Oneil Cruz on my fantasy team. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Me either, because I won't talk about sports on here. But yeah...I do have Oneil Cruz on my fantasy team. So, the last sentence is fantasy not sports. Got it! LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: So, the last sentence is fantasy not sports. Got it! LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: My team was doing well but my third baseman Ke'Byran has pushed them into a bit of a drought lately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 17 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Me either, because I won't talk about sports on here. But yeah...I do have Oneil Cruz on my fantasy team. Cruz is a beast. Hopefully they keep him around for awhile. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 Anyone know anything about this new "RRFS A" model that has appeared on Pivotal? Seems to run every three hours and goes out to 18 hours. This note is included: The RRFS A is a prototype NOAA run. It will post as available, and is subject to outages that may be frequent and extended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Anyone know anything about this new "RRFS A" model that has appeared on Pivotal? Seems to run every three hours and goes out to 18 hours. This note is included: The RRFS A is a prototype NOAA run. It will post as available, and is subject to outages that may be frequent and extended. https://gsl.noaa.gov/focus-areas/unified_forecast_system/rrfs Rapid Refresh Forecast System GSL, NCEP/EMC, and other partners are working together on a project to design a single-model, convection-allowing, ensemble-based data assimilation, and forecasting system called the Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS). This project aims to develop advanced high-resolution data-assimilation techniques and ensemble-forecasting methods while supporting the unification and simplification of the NCEP modeling suite around the FV3 model. Within the NOAA model unification effort, the RRFS represents the evolution of the NAM, RAP, HRRR, and HREF systems to a new unified deterministic and ensemble storm-scale system. This new system is targeted for initial operational implementation in late 2023 as a planned replacement for the NAMnest, HRRR, HiResWindows, and HREF. While the standalone regional (SAR) FV3 model is being developed for convection-allowing forecasting of a limited area (CONUS), other possible components of the RRFS are being tested now in the experimental, WRF-based High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble (HRRRE). Experimental runs of the HRRRE at GSL are focused particularly on: Improving 0-12 h high-resolution forecasts through ensemble-based, multi-scale data assimilation Producing spread in 0-36 h ensemble forecasts through initial-condition perturbations, boundary-condition perturbations, and stochastic physics. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 I will add that if we had simplified and rallied around the Fv3 this winter our digital snows totals would be even higher than what they eventually came in at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks are all in on the hot and dry forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 1 hour ago, TimB said: CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks are all in on the hot and dry forecast. Hopefully this does not mean we skip Spring, I know it is over 1/3 over but that is summer right there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 5 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: Someone should do a safety check on @TimB when he sees this. Is it me or does that look like a late May or June-like pattern lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 5 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said: Is it me or does that look like a late May or June-like pattern lol To me it looks like the last 2-3 summers worst case scenario looks. Don't put away the firewood though. Peter Cottontail may have to hop down a frosty trail this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks are all in on the hot and dry forecast.Good.Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 Hopefully this does not mean we skip Spring, I know it is over 1/3 over but that is summer right there. Good.Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 I really thought this would have warranted a high risk by the afternoon only because of timing. I sure hope the spc dose not regret not upgrading tomorrow morning. Better to cry wolf in this situation I would think. ...ArkLaTex into southern MO/IL Tonight... By early evening, forecast soundings from most 12z guidance shows that a broad area of high conditional risk of tornadic supercells will develop from eastern OK into much of AR and southern MO. This area will still be somewhat capped and the mechanisms for convective initiation are uncertain. However, a consensus of guidance shows multiple clusters of supercells forming across this area and persisting through the evening. Wind fields will strengthen throughout the night and capping will weaken, leading to a serious concern for nocturnal tornadoes over the southern MDT risk area in MO/AR. Again, model guidance provides confidence in the risk of widely scattered supercells throughout the night across the area, although details of location and timing are uncertain. Strong or even violent tornadoes are possible in this scenario 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 The night started slow but two PDS tornado warnings have just went up at 3:30Am In Mo and AR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 Just found some chasers on these storms. Apparently these are Radar indicated PDS warnings . No confirmed tornadoes on the ground . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 The storms in Mo and Ar are starting to form Hail Cores and finding better rotation but I have not seen a hook or ball yet tonight. Chasers are complaining about the radar down there so maybe I just cant see the hooks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 My place from the Saturday storm 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 36 minutes ago, 2001kx said: My place from the Saturday storm That royally sucks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 Anyone want to open a last 2/3 of Spring thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 The warm pattern coming will be over-the-top heat so expect some very extreme warmth in northern areas (outside of Eastern New England). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 At least down here in Lanco we are consistent - after being left high and dry all winter, the theme continues into spring: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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