Winterweatherlover Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the GEFS is disagreeing with the strength of the main S/W by a ton at like 5 days lmao. I think the GFS just got it wrong. its ENS doesn’t even agree with it Be interested to see what the 12z Euro shows. If Euro/CMC both show a big storm two straight runs it’s probably happening in some form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 The exact track doesn’t matter this far out it’s just the storm signal. I also wouldn’t be shocked if it is an inland runner though. I think you can definitely rule out a cutter with that block. An inland runner is a possibly though as is a coastal track and OTS but I think you can definitely eliminate a cutter option 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: I think you can definitely rule out a cutter with that block. An inland runner is a possibly though as is a coastal track and OTS but I think you can definitely eliminate a cutter option You said something kind of positive, now I know this is a real threat! 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: I think you can definitely rule out a cutter with that block. An inland runner is a possibly though as is a coastal track and OTS but I think you can definitely eliminate a cutter option Midwest/Lakes cutter yes. Coastal tracks have been a rarity for a while. I think if one does happen under this pattern then it would be an extreme event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Midwest/Lakes cutter yes. Coastal tracks have been a rarity for a while. I think if one does happen under this pattern then it would be an extreme event. I can see a Miller B where it tries to cut inland but than transfers due to the block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 That blocking means business. March could be epic North of I90 and central and Northern NE. I think areas south get some of the goods also including NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 NSFW 500mb progression. god damn. great to see the greatest anomalies to our south as well 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 It’s also cathartic to see the southern ridge get metaphysically annihilated. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 The GEFS ensembles look really for March 11-17. 9 of the 20 members have signifcant coastal storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 12z Euro is a big rainstorm but probably doesn’t matter this far out, big storm signal still there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 3 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: 12z Euro is a big rainstorm but probably doesn’t matter this far out, big storm signal still there What we don't want is the storm to over intensify like the EURO is showing. In December the "cutter" was so intense it killed the 3rd wave which was (and usually is) our big storm. Its fine if it cuts as long as it's not this intense. Basically, if it cuts we are ok moving forward in the period as long as the strength does not overwhelm the following wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: 12z Euro is a big rainstorm but probably doesn’t matter this far out, big storm signal still there You know the deal with models that shows a cutter. They almost never waver from that solution. At this point in time follow the ensembles and look for trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Just now, NutleyBlizzard said: You know the deal with models that shows a cutter. They almost never waver from that solution. At this point in time follow the ensembles and look for trends. This far out they can waiver, once it's inside 6 days they usually don't waiver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Signal for strong storm is there and confidence increasing on that. Long ways to go on the details. Big snows for this forum far from a lock this far out. Not all blocking patterns deliver the snowy goods. Many options possible this far out. Personally my confidence is high on a noteworthy storm over the eastern third of the U.S. A KU or even meaningful snow (>6") threat is low at this point. We'll see what the EPS show shortly. Still interested but not excited. Will be interested to watch trends starting 12Z runs Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 I knew the EURO was going to show this - Forky never got invested. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 12z Euro is a big rainstorm but probably doesn’t matter this far out, big storm signal still there There is an inland runner risk for sure, long way to go though 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 I knew the EURO was going to show this - Forky never got invested.If next weekend is a fail we will be running out of time very very quickly at that point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: If next weekend is a fail we will be running out of time very very quickly at that point Really Give this guy a metal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: If next weekend is a fail we will be running out of time very very quickly at that point I mean we have snowed to April before and the pattern is ripe, I am just concerned about a December situation where one storm zapped the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 The intensity of the December storm robbed the pattern, not the fact that it CUT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: If next weekend is a fail we will be running out of time very very quickly at that point Anything after mid March would be very anomalous. Our chances drop substantially after the 15th. Even if the pattern was still decent we would start having issues with getting enough surface cold for snow. We saw that in March 2018 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Seeing all these records in California and the SW is also a big sign. Strong block but all winter the RNA was stronger. We have a ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Anything after mid March would be very anomalous. Our chances drop substantially after the 15th. Even if the pattern was still decent we would start having issues with getting enough surface cold for snow. We saw that in March 2018I agree. There are multiple issues post 3/15, besides the climo ones you mentioned, length of day and sun angle are also big issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Cutter or not I would like to see a massive storm regardless because extreme weather is fascinating and I think we'll def get that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Cutter or not I would like to see a massive storm regardless because extreme weather is fascinating and I think we'll def get that. Haven't we already gotten a few massive cutters this winter? A coastal hugger or inland runner that is strong and a mix I could see but the last thing I'm interested in is another cutter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Cutter or not I would like to see a massive storm regardless because extreme weather is fascinating and I think we'll def get that. I feel the opposite had that in December. If the cutter is average strength then our chances of a snow event greatly increases due to the pattern (also the cutter brings down Arctic air). But again, if it's this strong then the third wave will be destroyed and we are left with December. Anytime you have a historic winter in the SW with an incredible RNA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 March 2001 strikes again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 31 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Anything after mid March would be very anomalous. Our chances drop substantially after the 15th. Even if the pattern was still decent we would start having issues with getting enough surface cold for snow. We saw that in March 2018 Again as always it depends where you are in the forum. March 2018 and early April was fantastic here in 2018. Many here saw 40-50 inches of snow during that period. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 38 minutes ago, snowman19 said: If next weekend is a fail we will be running out of time very very quickly at that point Thanks captain obvious 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 30 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I agree. There are multiple issues post 3/15, besides the climo ones you mentioned, length of day and sun angle are also big issues Everyone knows that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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