LibertyBell Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: 100% agreed! What got me going was the post from the other forum which put too much emphasis on the SER. In reality it's la Nina being la Nina. But other la ninas weren't this pitiful in terms of snow and some of them are VERY snowy. If you go through our 10 least snowy winters how many of them were la nina vs el nino? I can tell you right now the two that come to mind right away were both el ninos (72-73 and 97-98) and one was neutral (01-02). Truthfully, enso state only has a 20% impact on our weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: This Nina needs to go away, period. This Nina is doing exactly what it should unfortunately. We got lucky in 20-21 and a lesser extent last winter but it was doomed to eventually smack us back into reality. Huge Western winter-CA usually isn't a Nina snow haven but the RNA was so extreme that it worked out for them too. Huge Upper Plains winter, and becoming a good NNE winter because of the SWFE train. Nina climo to a T. I believe it's much more the decadal cycle of the PDO rather than la nina because we all know of a few la ninas that were extremely snowy. 95-96, 10-11, and even 20-21. If you go through the list of the least snowiest winters, very few of the bottom 10 were la ninas....probably more el ninos than la ninas in there...as I stated in the above post, enso state only has a 20% impact on our weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Need your snow fix? Here's a live feed from Maine with lots of deer. If only it was here! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 GFS is slightly improved. notice the lower heights out in the E Pac at the same latitude of the trough on the WC and higher heights towards AK this is a shift towards more Pac jet interaction and the ECMWF solution 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Maybe the little clipper can get CPK another 0.5 inches. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 34 minutes ago, lee59 said: Decent snows as you go up the Hudson Valley. Looks like Kingston-Saugerties area about 3-5 inches and the Albany vincinity anywhere from 6-12 inches. Looking at thruway cameras it looks like the cutoff between basically nothing and a snow event was around New Paltz/Kingston. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Maybe the little clipper can get CPK another 0.5 inches. I wouldn't have high confidence on a look like that working out but sure it's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 23 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: GFS is slightly improved. notice the lower heights out in the E Pac at the same latitude of the trough on the WC and higher heights towards AK this is a shift towards more Pac jet interaction and the ECMWF solution same on CMC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Baby steps on gfs at the surface the low went from Iowa/Minnesota border to Chicago. I still think at best we are looking at a miller B scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Maybe the little clipper can get CPK another 0.5 inches. No thank you, I'd rather get the record lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 31 minutes ago, TWCCraig said: Need your snow fix? Here's a live feed from Maine with lots of deer. If only it was here! Lake Tahoe looks better though lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Secondary on CMC but too weak/late unless you live in Boston. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023030412&fh=174&r=conus&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023030412&fh=180&r=conus&dpdt=&mc= 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 GEFS is night and day. love seeing the trough link up with the confluence as well. block is farther N, leading to a lower chance of linking with the height rises ahead of the trough great run. this is a major step in the right direction 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 41 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: No thank you, I'd rather get the record lol I thought we lost the record with last week's 1.6"? (or 1.8)??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Just now, Dark Star said: I thought we lost the record with last week's 1.6"? Nope, the record for Central Park's still in play. They only have 2.2" on the season, record is 2.8. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 The pacific is the main issueI agree. This one is going the wrong way IMO. I don’t trust the Euro/EPS anymore. It’s definitely not what it used to be 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: GEFS is night and day. love seeing the trough link up with the confluence as well. block is farther N, leading to a lower chance of linking with the height rises ahead of the trough great run. this is a major step in the right direction Yep gefs look good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I agree. This one is going the wrong way IMO. I don’t trust the Euro/EPS anymore. It’s definitely not what it used to be Gfs is the only model that is way amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 GEPS is also vastly improved. great 12z ENS runs so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Just now, MJO812 said: Yep gefs look good Almost a perfect miller B solution on the GEFS. Way south and east of the 6z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I agree. This one is going the wrong way IMO. I don’t trust the Euro/EPS anymore. It’s definitely not what it used to be Way too far out still to say it's going anyway IMO. The ensembles look good and that's what matters more than OP runs at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Ukie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Just now, MJO812 said: Ukie We are going from over amped to weak. Wonder if the big storm in a few days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 7 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Nope, the record for Central Park's still in play. They only have 2.2" on the season, record is 2.8. Can you check to see what JFK had in 1972-73? I want to see if they are close to setting their new low record, they have 1.7" as of now. I'm using that for the lowest number for the city as a whole lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Almost a perfect miller B solution on the GEFS. Way south and east of the 6z GEFS. we have to be careful with Miller B's they often don't produce here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Geps has a big coastal signal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 14 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Ukie Weak and flat is what you want to see at hour 168, not amped. However the Ukie is a terrible model lately. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 25 minutes ago, Dark Star said: I thought we lost the record with last week's 1.6"? (or 1.8)??? No. NYC is now at 2.2”. The record is 2.8” during 1972-73. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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