El Nino 2023-2024

[CAPE]

who cares about a daily post limited member's opinion? anyone?

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, griteater said:

Latest Euro Seasonal is in for Aug 1...

 

3.4 Plume is warmer this run -> and Super El Nino is forecasted

 

Nino 1.2 is also warmer this run

 

Nino SST footprint for Dec-Feb looks a lot like 2015-2016.  Super Nino that is basin wide

 

Precipitation for Dec-Feb has bulge at the Dateline / Gulf of Mexico / East Coast

 

500mb for Dec-Feb has +PNA / -AO / -NAO

 

Surface for Dec-Feb has Aleutian Low / Low pressure along E Coast

 

Indices show healthy +PNA / -NAO for Jan-Feb

 

 

Classic east-based look.

[raindancewx]

To be honest, there isn't much support for the Hadley Circulation definitively expanding from Global Warming either. I don't really care what the Tip guy says, IPCC says it's still behaving within natural variation in the Northern Hemisphere. Go look into the section for the Hadley Cell. It's page 37 at the bottom. The Hadley and Walker cells really seem to behave fairly independently, and honestly the southern portion is probably responding more violently to the QBO because of the hole in the Ozone layer.

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter03.pdf

The human-induced change has not yet clearly emerged out of the internal variability range in the Northern Hemisphere (Quan et al., 2018; Grise et al., 2019), whereas the trend in the annual-mean Southern Hemisphere edge is outside the 5th–95th percentile range of internal variability in CMIP6 in three out of the four reanalyses (Figure 3.16b). For the Southern Hemisphere summer when the simulated human influence is strongest, the 1981–2000 trend in three out of the four reanalyses falls outside the 5th–95th percentile range of internal variability (Figure 3.16c; L. Tao et al., 2016; Grise et al., 2018, 2019).

So much of the discussion in here is idiotic. It doesn't matter if the Hadley Cell is wobbling, contracting, expanding, moving east/west and impacting ENSO development. The vast majority of the forum is outside the rising air / sinking air placement of the circulation, whether it's advanced north/south/east/west by a few tenths of a degree. IPCC has it moving 0.1-0.3 degrees per decade on the net. That's not a big deal for someone at 42N.

Your weather in the East is determined not by ENSO strength but by placement, as that links to the PDO and other Pacific patterns that make you warm or cold. RONI is just another toy for estimating strength using poorly defined estimates for how the other oceans should be behaving in the tropics.

[brooklynwx99]

3 hours ago, raindancewx said:

.So much of the discussion in here is idiotic.

sorry it doesn’t live up to your lofty expectations 

[bluewave]

It’s a pretty big jump at this point to even talk about specific winter El Niño comparisons when the July forcing is still well west of where it usually is for a developing El Niño. This is a function of how warm the WPAC back to the IO still is for a developing El Niño. While Nino 1+2 to 3 is very warm for this time of year, the actual SSTs are much warmer west of the Dateline. So it’s still too early to know how much the winter forcing will resemble an El Niño if the WPAC remains as warm.

Notice how seasonal models like the Euro went to a stock summer forcing composite for a developing east based El Niño. While it did have some forcing west of the Dateline, that forcing turned out much stronger and further west. The EPAC forcing never developed. So we have to ask how well these seasonal models will perform 5-6 months out when they can’t get the first 3 months correct?

 

Euro summer forecast 

 

 

Verification so far much different

 

[thunderbolt]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It’s a pretty big jump at this point to even talk about specific winter El Niño comparisons when the July forcing is still well west of where it usually is for a developing El Niño. This is a function of how warm the WPAC back to the IO still is for a developing El Niño. While Nino 1+2 to 3 is very warm for this time of year, the actual SSTs are much warmer west of the Dateline. So it’s still too early to know how much the winter forcing will resemble an El Niño if the WPAC remains as warm.

Notice how seasonal models like the Euro went to a stock summer forcing composite for a developing east based El Niño. While it did have some forcing west of the Dateline, that forcing turned out much stronger and further west. The EPAC forcing never developed. So we have to ask how well these seasonal models will perform 5-6 months out when they can’t get the first 3 months correct?

 

Euro summer forecast 

 

 

Verification so far much different

 

Well said blue I think what it is is since we had such a lousy winter last year you grasp anything that looks positive even though it’s 5 to 6 months ahead

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, thunderbolt said:

Well said blue I think what it is is since we had such a lousy winter last year you grasp anything that looks positive even though it’s 5 to 6 months ahead

Yeah, members on here will tolerate a mild winter as long as we get some decent snowstorms. While every winter in the Northeast since 15-16 has been warmer than average, some of the milder years did feature decent snowstorms. But the winters like 19-20 and 22-23 that are both mild and relatively snowless can be tough to take.

Unfortunately, the track record for these seasonal models even a month or two out has been shown to be very low skill at times. Competing areas of marine heatwaves which drive the forcing seems to make these forecasts even more uncertain. 
 

 

[snowman19]

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

14 hours ago, raindancewx said:

To be honest, there isn't much support for the Hadley Circulation definitively expanding from Global Warming either. I don't really care what the Tip guy says, IPCC says it's still behaving within natural variation in the Northern Hemisphere. Go look into the section for the Hadley Cell. It's page 37 at the bottom. The Hadley and Walker cells really seem to behave fairly independently, and honestly the southern portion is probably responding more violently to the QBO because of the hole in the Ozone layer.

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter03.pdf

The human-induced change has not yet clearly emerged out of the internal variability range in the Northern Hemisphere (Quan et al., 2018; Grise et al., 2019), whereas the trend in the annual-mean Southern Hemisphere edge is outside the 5th–95th percentile range of internal variability in CMIP6 in three out of the four reanalyses (Figure 3.16b). For the Southern Hemisphere summer when the simulated human influence is strongest, the 1981–2000 trend in three out of the four reanalyses falls outside the 5th–95th percentile range of internal variability (Figure 3.16c; L. Tao et al., 2016; Grise et al., 2018, 2019).

So much of the discussion in here is idiotic. It doesn't matter if the Hadley Cell is wobbling, contracting, expanding, moving east/west and impacting ENSO development. The vast majority of the forum is outside the rising air / sinking air placement of the circulation, whether it's advanced north/south/east/west by a few tenths of a degree. IPCC has it moving 0.1-0.3 degrees per decade on the net. That's not a big deal for someone at 42N.

Your weather in the East is determined not by ENSO strength but by placement, as that links to the PDO and other Pacific patterns that make you warm or cold. RONI is just another toy for estimating strength using poorly defined estimates for how the other oceans should be behaving in the tropics.

Maybe not directly related to El Nino, but HRD's Andy Hazleton (Twitter) has a theory that with the warming being greater at higher latitudes, the Hadley Cells are distorted.  This, he thinks, might explain the wave breaking in the Atlantic that prevented development last August and stopped a couple of invests from developing this year.  He isn't stating as fact, but a hypothesis. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Just now, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Maybe not directly related to El Nino, but HRD's Andy Hazleton (Twitter) has a theory that with the warming being greater at higher latitudes, the Hadley Cells are distorted.  This, he thinks, might explain the wave breaking in the Atlantic that prevented development last August and stopped a couple of invests from developing this year.  He isn't stating as fact, but a hypothesis. 

Based on his hypothesis, I wonder if the 2022 season switched back on in meteorological autumn because the higher latitudes were cooling more than the deep tropics.  A hypothesis based on a hypothesis.

[GaWx]

 Nino 1+2 SSTa is today up to +3.632C per OISST after an 8 day rise of 0.7C. Per this graph, tomorrow's weekly report (for the prior week) should rise from the prior +3.0C to ~+3.3C:

[snowman19]

 Nino 1+2 SSTa is today up to +3.632C per OISST after an 8 day rise of 0.7C. Per this graph, tomorrow's weekly report (for the prior week) should rise from the prior +3.0C to ~+3.3C:

The epic, monumental fail by the CFS since March of insisting on dropping regions 1+2 and 3 like a rock continues…..

[roardog]

58 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The epic, monumental fail by the CFS since March of insisting on dropping regions 1+2 and 3 like a rock continues…..

The models have just been bad all around. They keep trying to move the warmth out of 1+2 and into 3.4, probably because they have been showing a favorable pattern to warm 3.4 in the mid range all summer that never comes to fruition. I kind of feel like if 3.4 does finally start to take off that 1.2 will then cool because the warmth will move out of that area. The subsurface under 3.4 isn’t that impressive. 

[snowman19]

The models have just been bad all around. They keep trying to move the warmth out of 1+2 and into 3.4, probably because they have been showing a favorable pattern to warm 3.4 in the mid range all summer that never comes to fruition. I kind of feel like if 3.4 does finally start to take off that 1.2 will then cool because the warmth will move out of that area. The subsurface under 3.4 isn’t that impressive. 

The new Euro run keeps region 1+2 just below +3.0C through December, also has region 3 at +2.7C through December while warming region 3.4 up to +2.3C in the same time frame. Does it actually work out like that? Who knows…

[GaWx]

I'm guessing that Nino 3.4 will drop to +1.1 in tomorrow's report from +1.2 last week.

[snowman19]

[FPizz]

10 hours ago, GaWx said:

I'm guessing that Nino 3.4 will drop to +1.1 in tomorrow's report from +1.2 last week.

It did from what I just read

[Terpeast]

11 minutes ago, FPizz said:

It did from what I just read

And the UHC seems to have leveled out at 0.7. New MJJ ONI at 0.8.

Models have a 1.7 peak on NDJ, but at the same time the WPAC warm pool is modeled to rewarm to +0.5 to +1. That may pull the forcing west

[so_whats_happening]

11 hours ago, GaWx said:

I'm guessing that Nino 3.4 will drop to +1.1 in tomorrow's report from +1.2 last week.

Yea it may see another push in temps after the passing of some weakened trades recently but overall the trades look to still hold through much of the month. 1+2 look to be holding steady at this point as well as 3 any warming may keep to 3.4 and 4 coming up. Really will be interesting to get subsurface data coming up here as the thermocline does look to be lifting in the last few updates probably a reason why 1+2 rebounded a bit recently.

Gotta see how that holds up coming up here.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't think anyone is planning on basing a seasonal forecast off of the RONI.....I think the value it provides is similar to the MEI in that it is a source of insight into how strongly ENSO may or may not manifest itself as a hemispheric driver relative to what may be deduced based soley on the ONI. Its just another tool. Looking back through the years historically speaking, it seems to me that it is a fairly solid tool in that respect. I agree it probably doesn't specifically correlate to any given index modality or temperature/snowfall trend for a given area in and of itself.

[snowman19]

It’s getting harder to ignore the new models getting stronger with the peak at this point. The spring barrier is long gone

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Some of the slower warming models for 3.4 have been doing pretty well. We are starting the month at 1.1 which is near the lower end of the projections. Models like the Euro and Australian are already verifying too warm. None of the models which remain at or under +1.50 for August show a super El Niño above +2.00. 
 

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table

 

Not surprising since there isn't going to be a peak that high-

[snowman19]

Not surprising since there isn't going to be a peak that high-

Speaking in definitive absolutes about something 4 months away is probably a bad idea

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Speaking in definitive absolutes about something 4 months away is probably a bad idea

I pick my spots.

Feel free to quote it.

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, FPizz said:

It did from what I just read

 Indeed it did. Also, Nino 1+2 warmed even more than to my +3.3 guess to +3.4. 

 Despite OISST catching that 3.4 cooling last week, things appear to now be reversing in a hurry in 3.4. The TAO buoys update today is another significantly warmer day similar to the last few. Also, today is significantly warmer in 3.4 than yesterday on OISST, the warm biased CRW, and the cool biased CDAS. The CDAS warmed a whopping 0.109 since yesterday, which is the strongest CDAS warming in one day in 3.4 since at least March 1st! Also, it exceeded +1.0 for the first time this El Niño. This along with the recent period of stronger -SOI tells me that we may finally have a period of sustained significant warming upcoming for 3.4, which would be the first time in two months.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It’s getting harder to ignore the new models getting stronger with the peak at this point. The spring barrier is long gone

 In addition to the TAO buoy 5 day averaged images, I follow all 3 daily index changes. However regarding absolutes, the closest of the 3 to ERSST, which ONI is based on, is OISST as CRW has tended to be too warm and CDAS has been too cool. ERSST has recently been slightly cooler than OISST but closer to it than to CDAS. Also, the weekly SST updates use OISST.

[so_whats_happening]

23 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The epic, monumental fail by the CFS since March of insisting on dropping regions 1+2 and 3 like a rock continues…..

 

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It’s getting harder to ignore the new models getting stronger with the peak at this point. The spring barrier is long gone

Maybe im misunderstanding but you trash the CFS then post about it later on?

[so_whats_happening]

Starting to get some -VP showing up over the Pacific finally still have the bulk pretty far west. Can also see the relaxation in the trades over more of 3.4 this go around compared to mostly 3 last time this should help gain some ticks in the anomaly department. We need a much more pronounced change to reach those upper level temp profiles being thrown around by models.

Of note we are also seeing more trade winds over the 1+2/ 3 region now compared to the past 2 months or so. This should help with that cooling potential the models had seen going into fall. How much that is a big question.

[snowman19]

Maybe im misunderstanding but you trash the CFS then post about it later on?

Ummmmm I guess you missed the point….the point being that it’s caving to the warmer guidance. And yes the model that’s been dropping regions 1+2 and 3 for the last 5 months is trash

[so_whats_happening]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Ummmmm I guess you missed the point….the point being that it’s caving to the warmer guidance. And yes the model that’s been dropping regions 1+2 and 3 for the last 5 months is trash

So why bother posting it than if it is still trash? Also you need to relax a bit it is only weather.