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February 11-12 ULL Winter Storm


Upstate Tiger
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39 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

ik its verbatim but 12k still looks decent on paper somehow must be the backend thump, idk didnt look hard im at work shouldnt even be here lol ...... for what its worth 3K was pretty equal at 60hrs (end of its run) placement wise, 3K may have been 25-30 miles further east but no big deal 

namconus_asnow_seus_27.png

The TT algorithm is suspect to say the least...

snku_acc-imp.us_state_nc_va (1).png

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Right now it's looking like the most likely to get a surprise in the lowlands is somewhere in the region from central Alabama, up into northern Georgia and Eastern TN. This is an area that often seems to miss out on the big coastal storms, so that would be a big win for them if it pans out. Still the ongoing caveats about localized banding, dynamics etc. In those areas.

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6 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

12z GFS slowed down again.... its caving.

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It caved and did not cave...it was stronger with the ULL but was probably unrealistic taking the track further north...if you're gonna have a Euro like ULL the system is gonna track pretty far south at least until it gets to about SC

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3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

The stronger ULL yields much better back side dynamic bands of precip. Small changes made a big difference. I don't think we're done just yet. 

This! That’s a hell of a deform band that traverses the favored areas. Someone’s gonna get nailed good by that. 

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8 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I think we (triangle) can throw in the towel. Probably could’ve yesterday but I was hanging onto hope. Really pulling for upstate and Georgia folks. Plenty of non-mountain areas still in play for a good storm!

Time to lock the thread. This just sucks and there is no other way to say it. Our last hope vaporized almost immediately after this thread was created.

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2 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Time to lock the thread. This just sucks and there is no other way to say it. Our last hope vaporized almost immediately after this thread was created.

not trying to be an ass.... but EYE no offense it was never a triangle thing anyway , and why lock the thread ? you can just not open it , certainly still a possibility for anyone along and W/NW of 77. I mean i get the discouragement but enough with this garbage man youre better than this  

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13 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

GEFS Mean:

0ACDDFA2-F5D6-4086-AD61-268F4FEA570A.thumb.png.54372c0baa40f6017ea1bce20054b941.png

That is an exponential increase from previous runs. Nice to see that at least as we get closer to game time. Canadian thermals worry me however, because normally they tend to run somewhat colder. Now the question is does the Canadian Ensembles disagree with the OP there..

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