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February 11-12 ULL Winter Storm


Upstate Tiger
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So here's my thinking. Certainly the track of the system more inland is a problem for the Piedmont of NC, as we don't get a chance to be west of the track until the system has spun down. But the other issue seems to be that the SLP is running out ahead of the ULL and the SLP is getting elongated. We need them to be more stacked in order for the better dynamics and access to the cimage.thumb.png.0619b2b808a7f55dd273aee664d9972f.pngold pool to come into play. See these two model runs 6z this morning vs 6z yesterday morning:

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I honestly think mesoscale models may be better for this event given how localized it is going to be. We’re starting to get to the period where I look at NAM thermals more than GFS and Euro and it certainly is maximizing dynamic cooling in the upstate/western piedmont area. 
 

For the mountains, I don’t want to jinx it, but this is looking more and more like a lock for a moderate-major snowstorm. 
 

KGSP has some of the most entertaining AFD’s of any office and this event is absolutely no different. I totally agree, this is going to be a nightmare to forecast outside the mountains up until it does what it does. Would not surprise me if this is an event a few counties go from a Special Weather statement to a WSW based on what’s actually happening and if the NAMs correct, those rates will overwhelm melting on everything. I think it’s either going to be ridiculously heavy snow with parachutes falling or cold rain. Nothing in between for upstate areas

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March 2009 keeps getting thrown around and it may be a good analog indeed. My gut says obviously higher elevations will do well but somewhere in the western piedmont, a death band forms and dumps with temps in the mid 30s. There will be a clear screw zone on either side of that band.

30542BB7-8059-436D-A14C-E6C82A86052A.jpeg

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1 minute ago, msuwx said:

Stronger system, much more pronounced warm nose ahead of it at 60-63 hours. 

ULL is much deeper at that point over MS/AL compared to 6z. 

I think the backend with the ULL swinging through is the best hope for many. Lately, runs have been showing a dry slot and not enough surface cold, but banding could develop with a stronger ULL. 

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Biggest takeaway is that it came in way, way stronger at 500mb than the previous run. I mean a lot stronger. 

Exactly how that closes off, and how the vort energy causes the ULL to wobble, to make a big difference for folks in the western Carolinas.

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1 minute ago, msuwx said:

Biggest takeaway is that it came in way, way stronger at 500mb than the previous run. I mean a lot stronger. 

Exactly how that closes off, and how the vort energy causes the ULL to wobble, to make a big difference for folks in the western Carolinas.

Yea agree with this as well. Biggest issue at onset will of course be 850s along with the ability to wet bulb down, and unfortunately even as far north as I am in the forum, we don't normally do wet bulb too well. I do love the fact though the ULL gives someone a chance to deform like crazy. 

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