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February 11-12 ULL Winter Storm


Upstate Tiger
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1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

Ugh… 18z GEFS 24 hr qpf looks to have toned it down for now and shifted precip more south and east of SW VA and NC mountains. Hopefully it’s a small blip and 0z comes back. 

Beware GEFS under-dispersal problem. It tends to waffle around with its OP run most of the time. 

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5 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Beware GEFS under-dispersal problem. It tends to waffle around with its OP run most of the time. 

Gotcha. Appreciate it. To your point the ULL track still wasn’t bad for the northern and northwestern crew and did even appear to be a bit stronger with the closed contour. My take would be qpf would tend to work out in most cases to the northwest of the track. Guess I’d take my chances with a MYR track although I feel like @BornAgain13 area and then into Winston Salem/GSO would seem to benefit a bit more from that track. Beggers definitely cannot be choosers this season. 

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11 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Gotcha. Appreciate it. To your point the ULL track still wasn’t bad for the northern and northwestern crew and did even appear to be a bit stronger with the closed contour. My take would be qpf would tend to work out in most cases to the northwest of the track. Guess I’d take my chances with a MYR track although I feel like @BornAgain13 area and then into Winston Salem/GSO would seem to benefit a bit more from that track. Beggers definitely cannot be choosers this season. 

Yeah, the OP was paltry with precip on the NW side so it tracks that the GEFS would be as well given what we know about it. I think the GFS is probably around the eastern edge of the envelope since all other guidance is west of it. I'd bet on the final track being west of the current GFS, how far west is the million dollar question. Per usual, the safe bet at this point is somewhere between. 

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0Z NAM at 39 already has the ULL southwest of 18Z position by a pretty good bit (eastern OK/western AR vs now southern OK/northern TX. More neutral tilt then positive and the confluence and vort in northern new england looks to be pressing down some. Not entirely sure how that affects things as the run continues but definitely some noticeable differences. 

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7 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

0Z NAM at 39 already has the ULL southwest of 18Z position by a pretty good bit (eastern OK/western AR vs now southern OK/northern TX. More neutral tilt then positive and the confluence and vort in northern new england looks to be pressing down some. Not entirely sure how that affects things as the run continues but definitely some noticeable differences. 

Guidance has trended towards a slower move east of the ULL.  If the neutral tilt can hold until it gets towards the east coast states and then go negative, then we all win… I know, self weenie :weenie:

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1 minute ago, WesternFringe said:

Guidance has trended towards a slower move east of the ULL.  If the neutral tilt can hold until it gets towards the east coast states and then go negative, then… I know, self weenie :weenie:

By HR 51 at 5h everything kind of evens out basically with the ULL compared to 18z. 

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3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Georgia folks will like the nam

End of the run looks to be a big sleet storm for majority, although I wonder how deep the warm nose would be because of wind direction and borderline surface temps. Feel like it would be more of a rain/snow scenario however I may be wrong on this too because i'm not going to go too deep into a sounding on the 84 NAM lol.

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15 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Georgia folks will like the nam

Definitely didn't hate it, can't imagine what folks west of Atlanta are thinking with that run. Wish there was just a few more hours on that run to see final totals. Needless to say its the NAM at range, so whoop-de-do, but I gotta say it feels good just to get NAM'd considering how bad this winter has been. 

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