February 2023

[brooklynwx99]

18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

 

This won't cut it for March

it's early March. it's a climatologically snowier period than much of December, that would be fine. late March I would agree, but that's not an issue at this time of year 

if you have strong blocking you can snow to the coast until March 20th or so

[snowman19]

It's also moving up 

Looks like very strong -PNA, +EPO, +AO. The only thing it’s got going for it is the -NAO. It’s going to be March, where’s the arctic air? March, 2018 had -EPO and cross-polar flow delivering arctic air, that’s why it was such an epic month. We don’t have that this time

[SACRUS]

From 27 to 45 now and likely on the way to the 11th 50 or above degree day this month.   Could be close to 16 by months end.

[EastonSN+]

PNA and NAO in lock step again.

Still no idea as to why for two years they are completely sinked.

[MJO812]

34 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

 

This won't cut it for March

Yes it would

March has geen snoeier thanks December.  We still have a chance until late month.

[forkyfork]

16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Looks like very strong -PNA, +EPO, +AO. The only thing it’s got going for it is the -NAO. It’s going to be March, where’s the arctic air? March, 2018 had -EPO and cross-polar flow delivering arctic air, that’s why it was such an epic month. We don’t have that this time

actually all the cold was bottled in eurasia which screwed the metro area out of huge amounts with the first two coastals

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

We've been in this negative-NAO correlation/Pacific thing since 2013, and more so 2019. March 2018 was a west-based NAO block that came from SSW. I am afraid the strength of -NAO will only be mirrored by strength of +EPO/-PNA. 

Chuck seems to be on to what I have been noticing. Is this the IO warming that is causing this?

Does anyone know or have a theory on the catalyst?

This may be the recent NAO SE ridge linkage answer. It's more the EPO RNA intensity than Atlantic water temps. If you have a full latitude trough in the west guess what, there is no way you can avoid a ridge linking to the NAO.

[forkyfork]

6 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

actually all the cold was bottled in eurasia which screwed the metro area out of huge amounts with the first two coastals

i'm sure i've posted this before but i'll post it again. a few degrees cooler and the metro would have easily gotten 18+ from this:

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Chuck seems to be on to what I have been noticing. Is this the IO warming that is causing this?

Does anyone know or have a theory on the catalyst?

This may be the recent NAO SE ridge linkage answer. It's more the EPO RNA intensity than Atlantic water temps. If you have a full latitude trough in the west guess what, there is no way you can avoid a ridge linking to the NAO.

Maybe someone is buying up natural gas? 

[EastonSN+]

EURO has a quicker loop into 8 (if some are concerned about mid March temps).

[EastonSN+]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Maybe someone is buying up natural gas? 

Hey Chuck you need to post in this forum more often. Been reading your posts for years you notice these things.

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i'm sure i've posted this before but i'll post it again. a few degrees cooler and the metro would have easily gotten 18+ from this:

Yeah here in CT was white rain for hours. Close.

[EastonSN+]

33 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it's early March. it's a climatologically snowier period than much of December, that would be fine. late March I would agree, but that's not an issue at this time of year 

if you have strong blocking you can snow to the coast until March 20th or so

The MJO may finally head into phase 8 at the largest amplitude of the year which can finally lessen the grip of the RNA. EURO is much quicker than the GEFS so I hope it's correct. GEFS is after the 10th. Posted the ECMWF above.

[EastonSN+]

Another observation.

Since 2013 generally speaking Decembers have been warmer/less snowy and our March/springs have been colder and snowier (even a recent white rain/dusting in May).

Thinking aloud, perhaps the IO warming works against us with longer wavelengths and actually works in our favor when the wavelengths shorten?

 

 

[Winterweatherlover]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The 2/23-2/28 time frame trended poorly for snow on the new model runs. Not really surprising at all. Onto March I guess

It's one cycle. 

 

Also I'm not sure I'd agree with poorly, having the 2/25 event basically squashed south and weak right now might not be such a bad thing.  

[snowman19]

EURO has a quicker loop into 8 (if some are concerned about mid March temps).

If you want something in March, you have a 15 day window (3/1-3/15). Anything after that point would have to be a freak, anomalous event. Climo, sun angle and length of day are all against you by 3/15 and it only gets worse from there

[EastonSN+]

Just now, snowman19 said:

If you want something in March, you have a 15 day window (3/1-3/15). Anything after that point would have to be a freak, anomalous event. Climo, sun angle and length of day are all against you by 3/15 and it only gets worse from there

Really depends on where your location is in the sub forum.

Away from Long island, coastal NJ it can still work (obviously north of 84).

Of course timing too (cloud cover arrives later in the overnight to allow for more radiational cooling, precip arrives 2 to 4 am, intensity picks up in the AM to compensate for the rising sun).

[Winterweatherlover]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Really depends on where your location is in the sub forum.

Away from Long island, coastal NJ it can still work (obviously north of 84).

Of course timing too (cloud cover arrives later in the overnight to allow for more radiational cooling, precip arrives 2 to 4 am, intensity picks up in the AM to compensate for the rising sun).

NYC Metro is the worst because of Urban Heating (aka March 2018) for any kind of marginal event. But yes you are right the timing and temps are critical. If it's 3/20 and it's in the 20s at night the sun angle is a non factor, or even in the daytime if it's below freezing the sun angle doesn't matter as much.  

[Winterweatherlover]

CMC came south with frozen precip on 2/23, looks similar to GFS now. 

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023021912&fh=90&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

[snowman19]

CMC came south with frozen precip on 2/23, looks similar to GFS now. 
 
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023021912&fh=90&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

Sleet at best. The upper levels are torched. We’re not getting snow out of that one

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it's early March. it's a climatologically snowier period than much of December, that would be fine. late March I would agree, but that's not an issue at this time of year 

if you have strong blocking you can snow to the coast until March 20th or so

I think we're too far south to benefit. SNE could do well. 

Unfortunately I see us getting stuck between the very warm, sunny pattern (60s & 70s) and the cold, wintry one further north. 

So a lot of dreary 40s & 50s. The GFS has a very early spring backdoor looking pattern for us with a nasty cold tuck.

That would only worsen under a -NAO blocking pattern. 

The 12z GFS is a perfect illustration of what I mean. 

[Allsnow]

12 hours ago, MJO812 said:

26 and snowing on Saturday Morning on the gfs for NYC

 

Weak and cold system on the gfs

Gone 

[Allsnow]

34 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think we're too far south to benefit. SNE could do well. 

Unfortunately I see us getting stuck between the very warm, sunny pattern (60s & 70s) and the cold, wintry one further north. 

So a lot of dreary 40s & 50s. The GFS has a very early spring backdoor looking pattern for us with a nasty cold tuck.

That would only worsen under a -NAO blocking pattern. 

The 12z GFS is a perfect illustration of what I mean. 

Agree. Time to watch Boston get to climo snowfall 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Gone 

For now

[Winterweatherlover]

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Gone 

CMC has a little light snow next Sat still. 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

CMC has a little light snow next Sat still. 

Cmc doesn't look bad at all

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, Winterweatherlover said:

NYC Metro is the worst because of Urban Heating (aka March 2018) for any kind of marginal event. But yes you are right the timing and temps are critical. If it's 3/20 and it's in the 20s at night the sun angle is a non factor, or even in the daytime if it's below freezing the sun angle doesn't matter as much.  

Unfortunately there is no northwest NYC subforum, so people north of I84 are forced to be part of the NYC metro, which is a completely different winter climate.  Also, I'm not buying Urban Heat Island effect for western parts of Union, Essex, Bergen counties in NJ or the undeveloped meadowlands etc.  It is the proximity to the ocean that seems to put the NYC metro area on the rain/snow line border more times than not.

[MJO812]

Great video

 

[Winterweatherlover]

12Z Euro has a little snow just NW of the city on Tuesday.  

[Winterweatherlover]

26 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Unfortunately there is no northwest NYC subforum, so people north of I84 are forced to be part of the NYC metro, which is a completely different winter climate.  Also, I'm not buying Urban Heat Island effect for western parts of Union, Essex, Bergen counties in NJ or the undeveloped meadowlands etc.  It is the proximity to the ocean that seems to put the NYC metro area on the rain/snow line border more times than not.

There is an interior NE and NW burbs subforum (even that though varies significantly because the climate of Bergen County/Southern Westchester is drastically different than Sullivan/Ulster counties).

In terms of the urban heating it is a factor, ocean is as well but often times in marginal events LI (especially north shore) and even the NJ coast get more accumulation than the city.