Bigbald Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 I was afraid the Cutter parade might return from last night's 0z gfs run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 16, 2023 Author Share Posted January 16, 2023 Medium and LR ensembles for the GEFS and GEPS looks outstanding. If we don't score w/ the first storm Sun/Mon, the one after is also a legit threat. The EPS is cutting through middle TN. That should set the boundary for the second storm. We will know in a few. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 16, 2023 Author Share Posted January 16, 2023 Incredibly cold 12z operational GFS run. When you see it, w/ a warm bias, flip cold...time to take notice. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 17 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Medium and LR ensembles for the GEFS and GEPS looks outstanding. If we don't score w/ the first storm Sun/Mon, the one after is also a legit threat. The EPS is cutting through middle TN. That should set the boundary for the second storm. We will know in a few. Lots of chaos in the flow. I think the "general" look of a cutter or two pressing the boundary further south and east is more probable than not. As long as we have systems remaining in the flow, you'd think we'd (someone in the mid-south) luck up and hit something at some point the next 10-14 days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Incredibly cold 12z operational GFS run. When you see it, w/ a warm bias, flip cold...time to take notice. That ridging into Alaska…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 16, 2023 Author Share Posted January 16, 2023 4 minutes ago, BNAwx said: That ridging into Alaska…. No doubt. This is gonna be the EPO's show(or Alaskan block) fairly soon I think. The delivery mechanism to send the PV southward is there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Yep, I know the operational will move around some and can’t be taken too seriously beyond 7 days but that run still cut the first 2 storms way to early for anybody in Tennessee then the last storm stays suppressed. Just hope it isn’t a wet and warm to cold dry scenario. It would be nice for things to slow down a little as well. At least it does look like there will be some cold around at times. Maybe things come together and we don’t have a lot of swing and misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 16, 2023 Author Share Posted January 16, 2023 5 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: Lots of chaos in the flow. I think the "general" look of a cutter or two pressing the boundary further south and east is more probable than not. As long as we have systems remaining in the flow, you'd think we'd (someone in the mid-south) luck up and hit something at some point the next 10-14 days. Agree. And no way modeling has those details worked out right now. Big storms. Big cold. I think the primary track is through the TN valley. I think another (low road) track will also exist - probably second or third storm. I will try to dig through the ensembles in a few. With that much cold around(and that Alaskan block), a lot is on the table if the timing is right. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 16, 2023 Author Share Posted January 16, 2023 3 minutes ago, snowmaker said: Yep, I know the operational will move around some and can’t be taken too seriously beyond 7 days but that run still cut the first 2 storms way to early for anybody in Tennessee then the last storm stays suppressed. Just hope it isn’t a wet and warm to cold dry scenario. It would be nice for things to slow down a little as well. At least it does look like there will be some cold around at times. Maybe things come together and we don’t have a lot of swing and misses. I think modeling is just now sensing the cold. The last run, suppression was the issue. This run it is cutters. Right now, we just have to wait and see where that boundary sets up. You can really see modeling(even the Euro), with two different pieces of energy(for the same system) on the operational. One cuts, the other goes down low. A couple of days ago, the GFS didn't even have it cold. I think ensembles and operationals are just now getting this in their wheelhouse. I will roll the dice and take my chances with this upcoming pattern. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 16, 2023 Author Share Posted January 16, 2023 Honestly, there is part of me that hopes we have enough SER so my pipes don't bust. If that EPO is that strong, it is going to send some super cold air southward. Man, this really reminds me of the Memphis ice storm - I know I keep saying it, but looks like 2.0. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 I'll add............... with that much cold potentially coming south it won't take much to see what is shown as a cutter with all rain now morph into a system that is more frozen (espcially on the front end). Cold air is pretty dense so if we can get it on the move, it may press much further south into coming disturbances than currently shown. I'm just interested in the pattern on a large scale currently. If we head where this is showing the lead time on a wintry system may not be much longer than 3-4 days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 As shown by the GEPS and GEFS, it's moving toward a gradient pattern. We would almost have to have a leader follower type setup where the first system drags colder air into the region for the second system to snow on us. The only negatives are we are south of the Ohio River so gradient patterns more often than not leave us on the wrong side of the tracks. Still, just takes one to make a memorable winter and we at least seem to be moving toward "opportunity"............. Any way you slice it, there should be plenty of moisture the next 2-3 weeks. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 16, 2023 Author Share Posted January 16, 2023 FWIW, the ensemble mean on the 12z EPS is not a cutter. In fact, it is so suppressed, it would rob most of the valley of any moisture at all. Good spot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: FWIW, the ensemble mean on the 12z EPS is not a cutter. In fact, it is so suppressed, it would rob most of the valley of any moisture at all. Good spot. Interesting. It has been rather insistent on suppression, but EVERY op run cuts. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 16, 2023 Author Share Posted January 16, 2023 Digging a little deeper, I am not sure how the mean is that far SE on the EPS as there are plenty of cutters for slp placement. However, the mean is further SE than 0z. But really the EPS is a great looking run in terms of multiple storms and a great track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 16, 2023 Author Share Posted January 16, 2023 It might be a tic northwest on second look, but was basically the same run as 0z. Of interest, it does have a mean slp over New Orleans on the 22nd. Get a low placement there, and someone in the forum area is getting frozen precip, even if it comes on NNE track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Just now, Carvers Gap said: It might be a tic northwest on second look, but was basically the same run. Of interest, it does have a mean slp over New Orleans on the 22nd. Get a low placement there, and someone in the forum area is getting frozen precip. Agree, I'd take my chances on wintery for someone in the mid-south with a surface low over NO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 16, 2023 Author Share Posted January 16, 2023 Regarding the 12z EPS: The best look is the system on the 26th which follows. The 12z EPS definitely leave room to the NW to trend for the 22nd/23rd. I really want to see how this trends as modeling is able to sort through the depth and intensity of the incoming cold air mass. The lion's share of the cold appears to be coming after the 26th. I would expect a storm to rid that incoming boundary. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 16, 2023 Author Share Posted January 16, 2023 @John1122The Euro control has your favorite storm track. Cutter, cutter, snow along the GC. In all seriousness, that is how cold the control was. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 16, 2023 Author Share Posted January 16, 2023 The 12z EPS is really a great run. This is my favorite. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 16, 2023 Author Share Posted January 16, 2023 For kicks and giggles....this is where it heads to about 100 hours after the map above. It is colder here prior to this snapshot. I just wanted to show this as North America is just frigid in this run. Impressive for a model which has been known for a slight warm bias in this range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The 12z EPS is really a great run. This is my favorite. Just have to keep systems coming across and at some point over a 7-10 day period........... something would likely be a hit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 16, 2023 Author Share Posted January 16, 2023 And that isn't the colder model in that timeframe.............. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: For kicks and giggles....this is where it heads to about 100 hours after the map above. It is colder here prior to this snapshot. I just wanted to show this as North America is just frigid in this run. Impressive for a model which has been known for a slight warm bias in this range. TBF - if we get an airmass like that and a 500 profile as indicated on the ensembles................. at some point there'd be a nasty snow/ice overrunning event from TX/OK through the TN/KY region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 16, 2023 Author Share Posted January 16, 2023 1 minute ago, tnweathernut said: TBF - if we get an airmass like that and a 500 profile as indicated on the ensembles................. at some point there'd be a nasty snow/ice overrunning event from TX/OK through the TN/KY region. Yeah, the pattern is honking for that kind of setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 8 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: @John1122The Euro control has your favorite storm track. Cutter, cutter, snow along the GC. In all seriousness, that is how cold the control was. 2018 pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 9 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: @John1122The Euro control has your favorite storm track. Cutter, cutter, snow along the GC. In all seriousness, that is how cold the control was. That is something you dont see everyday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Just now, John1122 said: 2018 pattern. Was that the year that cities like Jackson, MS, Birmingham, AL and places south of Atlanta got more snow that the TN Valley in general? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 16, 2023 Author Share Posted January 16, 2023 Just now, matt9697 said: That is something you dont see everyday There is a fine line between cutters to St Louis, and cold that strong going all the way to Cuba. Those are cold ensembles. The mechanism is there to deliver very cold air into the Lower 48. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 16, 2023 Author Share Posted January 16, 2023 By mechanism, to clarify, I mean a -EPO. Also, there are echoes of a -NAO on many runs and ensemble runs from time to time. It is on the EPS control big time. If we manage a -EPO and -NAO, that is a nice winter couplet. Honestly, that is the kind of couplet where we would be ready for spring after that matures. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now