January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread

[jaxjagman]

Probably start watching the SPV around next weekend,winds decelerate and temps rise but thats not going to help out until weeks ahead if at all.But it should still weaken the SPV and displace it.I dont think you should even trust any model what it shows right now until it actually happens

[jaxjagman]

Its still a brick right now

[Carvers Gap]

Pretty big move at 500 by the 18z GFS around d10.......

[Carvers Gap]

Yep.  That is actually fairly significant move by the operational.  It has a ridge along the West coast, and cold is in the Plains and not locked over the Rockies.  The cold front actually gets east of the Apps.  

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z from d11-13 is a complete reversal.  Trough moves eastward, and the ridge is in the West.  First time at 282 that the trough has made it into the east at 500mb that I can remember.  It has basically been stuck in the Four Corners in the Southwest.

[Carvers Gap]

LOL.  The 18z GFS went from SER being a problem to suppression in one run(referencing d10+). 

[Carvers Gap]

Who knows if one run of the GFS means anything, but that is a total reversal d10+(and I mean total...replace troughs for ridges and ridges for troughs) at 18z.   While not surprising at that range, it is impressive to see that change.  That likely means the d10+ is not the foregone conclusion that it has had for days.

[matt9697]

Not sure i have seen such prolonged period of cold as depicted by the cfs noon run, not sure how good it is

[Carvers Gap]

6 minutes ago, matt9697 said:

Not sure i have seen such prolonged period of cold as depicted by the cfs noon run, not sure how good it is

Definite cold bias for sure.  However, it has not been that cold in a while.  That, in conjunction with ensembles trending colder, is of some interest.   

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z GEFS has a lot of similarities to the 12z CFSv2.  

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z GEFS has (so far) followed the operational's lead.  A piece of the PV is now in the southern Canadian prairies at d10.

[Carvers Gap]

 

[Carvers Gap]

If this verifies(sign the waiver), that is a pretty huge pattern reversal...........

 

[Carvers Gap]

The big change w/ the 18z GEFS is that it no longer is feeding back as much over the Four Corners d10+.  The retrograde is the PV moving from the Great Lakes Region into the central Canadian Prairies - BIG difference.  Let's hope that is just the beginning of good trends.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Euro still likes the idea of a possible rain to snow situation over SE KY, the northern plateau, the Smokies and SWVA in about 7 days:

 

6z GFS looks similar, but still holding the shortwave back a bit so it comes out a bit more consolidated and a bit later. 

EPS has some good hits around the state centered around the 27th mentioned by Carvers (plus or minus 2 days on either side)

 

Some hits even in places like Chattanooga and Memphis, though not as many. 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

EPS member 41 is probably the absolute ceiling for this type of pattern evolving now. Please note that this probably has like a 5% chance of occurring lol:

[matt9697]

Trying to remember what Carver said and not to look at the GFS but man, can it sure change from run to run. Just wonder why what ever government entity is responsible for that model cannot see that changes need to be made. That thing is an embarrassment 

[Carvers Gap]

Good overnight trends for next weekend. Good overnight trends for cold returning.  

[Carvers Gap]

For the first time in a while, I really don't have a ton of changes to my comments from yesterday evening.  The medium and long range look cold....and stormy.  

The storm Sun/Mon is now depicted on both the 0z Euro/6z GFS to pass to our southeast.  In fact, suppression is the concern in my mind today.  We need that storm to turn NE and crank.  For now, it is a trackable system for the mountains, SE KY, SW VA, W NC, and maybe even NE TN if trends continue to improve.  

I think we are looking at a legit possibility of very cold air dropping into the Plains and/or the Great Lakes after the 26th.  Once there, the flow from the -EPO is going to try to send it SE.  The SER will fight it, but this is a strong cold shot.  This is the EPO's baby for the foreseeable future.  There are continuing signs the NAO may try to fire, but as anyone knows who has been following this for some time, a -NAO is very hard to predict with accuracy at LR.

What happens after the 31st?  Well, just go look at the MJO plots this morning, and you tell me.  75% of them want to take the MJO into phase 3.  Some loop it back into background phase 2/3 again.  American modeling likes the warm tour.  Plots are all over the place.

As for which model is winning.  IDK.  I think we need to pay very close attention to the GFS and its trends.  Shock.  Why?  If it goes colder during the next 48-72 hours, that tells us very cold temps are possibly about to enter the pattern in the medium and LR.  It has had a very warm bias this winter....until it doesn't.   And when that model switches cold, it is worth noting.  I have watched it get colder over the past 24 hours, and will be very interested in where it goes now.   The GEPS/CFSv2 have been quite good re: this increasingly likely pattern change.  The 0z EPS, 0z GEPS, 6z GEFS, and 0z/6z CFSv2 are quite cold in the LR.  

Storm tracks.  We haven't been able to talk about this winter very often.  Spitballing and speculation.  I think there is a likely chance that the primary track will shift from the lows cutting along the Ohio River Valley to cutting through the TN Valley, especially eastern valley.  That brings middle and western areas of the forum area into play.  However, I do think a possible secondary track will also be in play which is an inland runner track which helps E TN.  I thought this was an interesting quote from Larry Cosgrove on Saturday:

At some point, the drift toward a positive ENSO signature could shift the larger storms farther south. That would eradicate the frequent calls for the GFS model suite to pop up a ridge in Florida, which has not happened often anyway due the unstable nature of the global sea surface temperature anomaly regime.

 Anyway, lots of speculation in that post.  Don't take it as fact, but more of putting hypotheticals out there to look at.  

 

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, matt9697 said:

Trying to remember what Carver said and not to look at the GFS but man, can it sure change from run to run. Just wonder why what ever government entity is responsible for that model cannot see that changes need to be made. That thing is an embarrassment 

Just look at who and what has taken control of our Govt and what's happened to our Country and there's your answer, if any of that sect has any influence over it. We've sat back and let crooks, liar's, thieves and perv's ruin our Nation.  

[snowmaker]

We need cold but we don’t need vodka cold. We don’t want constant suppression, but hopefully enough SER for the track to favor us with at least some storms that come across.☃️☃️

[Met1985]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

For the first time in a while, I really don't have a ton of changes to my comments from yesterday evening.  The medium and long range look cold....and stormy.  

The storm Sun/Mon is now depicted on both the 0z Euro/6z GFS to pass to our southeast.  In fact, suppression is the concern in my mind today.  We need that storm to turn NE and crank.  For now, it is a trackable system for the mountains, SE KY, SW VA, W NC, and maybe even NE TN if trends continue to improve.  

I think we are looking at a legit possibility of very cold air dropping into the Plains and/or the Great Lakes after the 26th.  Once there, the flow from the -EPO is going to try to send it SE.  The SER will fight it, but this is a strong cold shot.  This is the EPO's baby for the foreseeable future.  There are continuing signs the NAO may try to fire, but as anyone knows who has been following this for some time, a -NAO is very hard to predict with accuracy at LR.

What happens after the 31st?  Well, just go look at the MJO plots this morning, and you tell me.  75% of them want to take the MJO into phase 3.  Some loop it back into background phase 2/3 again.  American modeling likes the warm tour.  Plots are all over the place.

As for which model is winning.  IDK.  I think we need to pay very close attention to the GFS and its trends.  Shock.  Why?  If it goes colder during the next 48-72 hours, that tells us very cold temps are possibly about to enter the pattern in the medium and LR.  It has had a very warm bias this winter....until it doesn't.   And when that model switches cold, it is worth noting.  I have watched it get colder over the past 24 hours, and will be very interested in where it goes now.   The GEPS/CFSv2 have been quite good re: this increasingly likely pattern change.  The 0z EPS, 0z GEPS, 6z GEFS, and 0z/6z CFSv2 are quite cold in the LR.  

Storm tracks.  We haven't been able to talk about this winter very often.  Spitballing and speculation.  I think there is a likely chance that the primary track will shift from the lows cutting along the Ohio River Valley to cutting through the TN Valley, especially eastern valley.  That brings middle and western areas of the forum area into play.  However, I do think a possible secondary track will also be in play which is an inland runner track which helps E TN.  I thought this was an interesting quote from Larry Cosgrove on Saturday:

At some point, the drift toward a positive ENSO signature could shift the larger storms farther south. That would eradicate the frequent calls for the GFS model suite to pop up a ridge in Florida, which has not happened often anyway due the unstable nature of the global sea surface temperature anomaly regime.

 Anyway, lots of speculation in that post.  Don't take it as fact, but more of putting hypotheticals out there to look at.  

 

Great thoughts this morning Carver..I absolutely agree great trends over the past 24 hours.

[Carvers Gap]

FWIW, the 12z ICON is an excellent look for E TN.  The 12z GFS is back to a cutter and cold front passage.

[PowellVolz]

Didn’t we see this weeks ago?





.

[Carvers Gap]

It is going to be interesting to see where this CMC run goes.  At 126 it has a low along the southern TX coast and has not cut.

[Carvers Gap]

At162, it looks like the CMC splits the energy.  Half goes through west TN, and the other half heads for the Piedmont.  This is a similar conundrum that we have seen all winter.  Modeling wants to cut, but also hints at inland runner potential.  Ensembles will have to sort this out.   Interesting for sure.

[PowellVolz]

We need cold but we don’t need vodka cold. We don’t want constant suppression, but hopefully enough SER for the track to favor us with at least some storms that come across.

It blows my mind… it seems like we live in the only place in the world where the snow setup has to be perfect. Either 33 and rain or it won’t snow because it’s too dry. While DP’s are in the single digits in Canada and it snows for days.


.

[Carvers Gap]

But the 12z CMC does have a surprise....a little trick on Tropical Tidbits for the CMC - toggle over "MSLP and Precip" and not the frozen.  You will be able to see the rest of the run quicker.    Hint -> It's Miller time.

[Carvers Gap]

26 minutes ago, snowmaker said:

We need cold but we don’t need vodka cold. We don’t want constant suppression, but hopefully enough SER for the track to favor us with at least some storms that come across.☃️☃️

I like where this is heading.  What we want is right on the boundary per the 12z CMC.  I think we will see some bouts of bitter cold.  That said, the front end of the cold outbreak or as it is retreating is the sweet spot.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z CMC is a great setup.  Storm one sets the boundary, and storm two rides it.  No idea if that is going to be the outcome, but it is nice to see some chances showing up on modeling.  It sure beats multiple shades of red.