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January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread


Carvers Gap
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Looks like the first ten days or so will be warm, but that is not a lock.  After three years of La Nina, we are probably closing-in on our last few months of this ENSO phase.   La Nina's often yield warm Januarys, but something makes me think we buck the trend this month for at least part of the month.  I have January as AN in my seasonal forecast, but a portion of the last 20 days of the month could be quite cold.   I still expect some wild swings this winter w/ a base warm pattern and very cold interludes.  

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Definitely going to be warm it appears for New Year’s. The TWC yeah I know has here at 66 & 60’s most of that week. IF it stays that way for a couple weeks then the fescue will awaken.  I just had to mow my yard this week.  That should stop at least temporarily after this Christmas weekend. 

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16 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Definitely going to be warm it appears for New Year’s. The TWC yeah I know has here at 66 & 60’s most of that week. IF it stays that way for a couple weeks then the fescue will awaken.  I just had to mow my yard this week.  That should stop at least temporarily after this Christmas weekend. 

My yard has been dormant since mid November other than just picking up leftover leaves.  After record cold or near record cold temps, I doubt my yard is gonna have much life it in after the extreme cold upcoming.  

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Definitely going to be warm it appears for New Year’s. The TWC yeah I know has here at 66 & 60’s most of that week. IF it stays that way for a couple weeks then the fescue will awaken.  I just had to mow my yard this week.  That should stop at least temporarily after this Christmas weekend. 

I mowed today. Should be done until February preemerg


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I guess we unloaded all the cold out of Siberia and it all headed our way lol. Hopefully we get a better pattern mid January and not waste it all on warm weather. I want a few real winter storms in our area or at least something to track.

If you like being disappointed, welcome to the site.


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The global ensembles overnight are singing the same song....The Hudson Bay block sags a bit too far south to help at all.  At 0z and 6z, I don't see any remarkable cool downs.  Again, normal temps will get it done, and it may be a struggle to get those.  All of that said, we are ten days from January....LONG way to go.

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Just a wee bit of variability....6z CFSv2 run on left.  I "thin" January starts warm.  How long that lasts is TBD.  I do hear some chatter that it might have some aspects of November embedded in the pattern.  That would mean a period of warmth followed by cold.  I am 50/50 on whether this is a 4-6 week complete pattern change(see image on the right) or typical January thaw (end result see image on the left).  

Screen_Shot_2022-12-21_at_8.56.26_AM.png

 

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Larry Cosgrove has had a pretty hot hand of late...These are his recent comments.  He is a great follow on social media.

Over the past five days, the various numerical forecast models have gone crazy with predictions of warming across the entire continent. I follow the more conservative GGEM ensemble run, since that is the only series that acknowledges the possible impact of a major storm undercutting a ridge in Nunavut AR. If you accept the idea of the January Thaw coming early, then a harsh winter weather pattern will return in the middle of next month.

 

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1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

The global ensembles overnight are singing the same song....The Hudson Bay block sags a bit too far south to help at all.  At 0z and 6z, I don't see any remarkable cool downs.  Again, normal temps will get it done, and it may be a struggle to get those.  All of that said, we are ten days from January....LONG way to go.

Carver, what time intervals are "normal" temps generated from? What is the start date for historical data?

If one moves that arbitrary start date to the year 2000, what is our normal temp at ktri?  If you have a source I'll go to it and find the info myself. Thanks

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10 minutes ago, Bigbald said:

Carver, what time intervals are "normal" temps generated from? What is the start date for historical data?

If one moves that arbitrary start date to the year 2000, what is our normal temp at ktri?  If you have a source I'll go to it and find the info myself. Thanks

The reanalysis page which I use has this message:

Default climatology has been changed to 1991-2020

That site might be a good place to start as you can toggle the base period norms: 

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/usclimdivs/

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9 minutes ago, Bigbald said:

Carver, what time intervals are "normal" temps generated from? What is the start date for historical data?

If one moves that arbitrary start date to the year 2000, what is our normal temp at ktri?  If you have a source I'll go to it and find the info myself. Thanks

Here is another page from that site.  I really hope that data is made a pay site.  Easily is my top historical site for climate data.

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/usclimdivs/correlation/long.html

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I think we've been in a pretty stable pattern since October: 2.5 warm weeks , 1.5 cold weeks. If that continues we should rotate back through around around Jan. 20th give or take a few days. If it doesn't, we probably have a major pattern change. Raindancewx was mentioning that 84-85 was a good (but not perfect) analog so far as this winter has progressed. He thought maybe Jan 20 - Feb 20 was the best chance for our forum area. 

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Speaking of Ninos I've been struck lately by the STJ involvement in a storm around the New Year as depicted by the GFS:

giphy.gif?cid=790b76118a71d402c4a90b29d5

Watch that little jet streak over Mexico get pulled up into the Pac jet. GFS may not have the details, but it has been very insistent on something like that happening. To be clear I don't think there is a chance for snow with this, just interested to see the STJ 

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3 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I think we've been in a pretty stable pattern since October: 2.5 warm weeks , 1.5 cold weeks. If that continues we should rotate back through around around Jan. 20th give or take a few days. If it doesn't, we probably have a major pattern change. Raindancewx was mentioning that 84-85 was a good (but not perfect) analog so far as this winter has progressed. He thought maybe Jan 20 - Feb 20 was the best chance for our forum area. 

Wow, that is a big analog.  It does look like a reloading pattern.  The 12z CFSv2 has that.  I really like 10-11 as my analog.  If I had a wishful analog....raindance would be it.  I was thinking today that maybe this wasn't our only bout of sever cold this winter w/ so much HL blocking showing up.  Many forget that some of these really cold winters had very warm interludes.

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1 hour ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Carver, I'm thinking mid January for our next opportunity imo. It's tough to tell what may happen this far out. Just enough cold air and moisture will be good enough 

Sounds about right or just prior.  Modeling is showing the second week in January switching to a decent PNA.  If one accounts for modeling kicking the can, mid-month would be about right.  If no can kicking, I might guess something in the 7th-10th range...and us actually beginning to track that system around the New Year.  The end of the 18z GEFS is beginning the transition to an eastern trough.  The operational flirted with that occurring much sooner.  It really depends on which model is handling the MJO the best.  The GEFS EXT this evening had a similar transition but maybe 2-3 days later.

Screen_Shot_2022-12-21_at_10.03.26_PM.pn
Screen_Shot_2022-12-21_at_10.03.38_PM.pn

 

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8 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Speaking of Ninos I've been struck lately by the STJ involvement in a storm around the New Year as depicted by the GFS:

giphy.gif?cid=790b76118a71d402c4a90b29d5

Watch that little jet streak over Mexico get pulled up into the Pac jet. GFS may not have the details, but it has been very insistent on something like that happening. To be clear I don't think there is a chance for snow with this, just interested to see the STJ 

Man, if we could get that to connect w/ some cold...........................

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3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Man, if we could get that to connect w/ some cold...........................

I agree. It's just tough in the south to get it all to come together. We evacuated Siberia so we will have to reload it if we can. I really thought with the -nao we would have gotten a southern slider but unfortunately it didn't work out. I take an icestorm at this point, as long as it's not too bad lol

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5 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

I agree. It's just tough in the south to get it all to come together. We evacuated Siberia so we will have to reload it if we can. I really thought with the -nao we would have gotten a southern slider but unfortunately it didn't work out. I take an icestorm at this point, as long as it's not too bad lol

I kind of hold to the idea that Canada does a really good job of making its own cold.  We just need "normal" temps in January to score.  The -NAO will be responsible for this cold shot.  If the STJ had been active, we would have seen a pretty massive storm in the East. Some modeling suggests it returns later in January.  The ideal game plan is +PNA followed by the -NAO.  That is on the table.   I still hold out a little hope for Dec 27th-28th.  That said, climatology really just does not favor December here(but it has been good during the last 10-15 years).  I am good with periodic cold shots for the next ten weeks.  We can score with that.  Honestly, if this is the start of winter(and not and '89 end which I don't think it is), we will look back on December as a fun start.

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