Blizzard of 93 Posted February 18, 2023 Author Share Posted February 18, 2023 3 minutes ago, paweather said: Please Blizz Please! Let’s see what 18z says… We need to get the first event potential to hold within 5 days this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 33 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Let’s see what 18z says… We need to get the first event potential to hold within 5 days this time. Yeah I know HH always is a tease Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 18, 2023 Author Share Posted February 18, 2023 0z GFS still has the Winter storm chance for next Saturday. Snow to mix this run. Advisory type of event potential this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 18, 2023 Author Share Posted February 18, 2023 The 0z GFS still has the next Winter storm chance on the 27th as well with a storm that transfers from the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Choooo choooo blizz snow train rolling in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 This has been a winter to remember for my niece, who lives up in Flagstaff. They will go over 100" for the year with this next system, which sounds like it's going to be a doozy... Snipped from the NWS discussion: Our eyes then turn to the big story of the forecast. A strengthening trough will drop southward through the Great Basin on Tuesday. This trough will have access to plenty of moisture along with an upper jet in excess of 170 mph. This will lead to a miserable Wednesday across northern Arizona. Snow levels will drop fairly quickly and there is potential for several rounds of heavy snow as strong upslope flow and large scale lift will interact with the available moisture. Wind gusts between 40 to 60 mph appear likely at this time which will lead to plenty of blowing snow. Model guidance has been consistent in showing this strong trough moving through and increases confidence that this will be a high impact event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 18, 2023 Author Share Posted February 18, 2023 The 0z Euro also has the next Saturday Winter storm chance with a good front end thump of snow changing to a mix. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 18, 2023 Author Share Posted February 18, 2023 1 minute ago, Voyager said: This has been a winter to remember for my niece, who lives up in Flagstaff. They will go over 100" for the year with this next system, which sounds like it's going to be a doozy... Our eyes then turn to the big story of the forecast. A strengthening trough will drop southward through the Great Basin on Tuesday. This trough will have access to plenty of moisture along with an upper jet in excess of 170 mph. This will lead to a miserable Wednesday across northern Arizona. Snow levels will drop fairly quickly and there is potential for several rounds of heavy snow as strong upslope flow and large scale lift will interact with the available moisture. Wind gusts between 40 to 60 mph appear likely at this time which will lead to plenty of blowing snow. Model guidance has been consistent in showing this strong trough moving through and increases confidence that this will be a high impact event. Soon these type of forecast discussions will be written for CTP! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Soon these type of forecast discussions will be written for CTP! I really hope so. I can't believe how persistent this pattern has been and how crappy winter is/was for you guys who love snow. And like I said, I don't post this stuff to rub anything in your faces, because, quite honestly, I wish we were having a record warm winter out here, and I didn't have to deal with snow up there when working. The locals though, are loving this, and while I don't care for the cool, wet pattern we're in, it does help the drought situation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 18, 2023 Author Share Posted February 18, 2023 The 6z GFS is still on the next Saturday snow to mix train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 18, 2023 Author Share Posted February 18, 2023 Good to see the NAO still forecast to head negative beginning later next week on the Euro & GFS ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 A frigid 17 here this AM. HRRR only missed by 13 on this one (from yesterday's 12Z.). MDT 24 or 25. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 20 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Not used to this cold after being on the warm side for a few weeks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 17 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Not used to this cold after being on the warm side for a few weeks. MIGHT have to get the coats and parkas back out for the start of met Spring. After next Friday, MDT does not touch 40 again, at 18Z, on the GFS until March 4th and another cold shot looming after that. Generally supported by all 3 Ensembles blended temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 18, 2023 Author Share Posted February 18, 2023 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: MIGHT have to get the coats and parkas back out for the start of met Spring. After next Friday, MDT does not touch 40 again, at 18Z, on the GFS until March 4th and another cold shot looming after that. Generally supported by all 3 Ensembles blended temps. The NAO looks to begin impacting the pattern later next week & beyond. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 18, 2023 Author Share Posted February 18, 2023 The 6z GFS still has the follow up storm on the 27th/28th but it’s good seeing the snow impacting areas just to our south at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It is surprising/amazing places like Syracuse and Albany have that much with what has transpired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 18, 2023 Author Share Posted February 18, 2023 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: It is surprising/amazing places like Syracuse and Albany have that much with what has transpired. Lol, The 5 at Harrisburg & the 10 at Williamsport don’t look too bad on this list compared to the misfortune of others on this list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 13 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Lol, The 5 at Harrisburg & the 10 at Williamsport don’t look too bad on this list compared to the misfortune of others on this list. 25% (Harrisburg) is not defendable but yea Allentown is so bad, Billy Joel is thinking of doing another song. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 18, 2023 Author Share Posted February 18, 2023 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: 25% (Harrisburg) is not defendable but year Allentown is so bad, Billy Joel is thinking of doing another song. Lol, it’s bad, but my point is that it’s all relative. The people in DC or NY would be a little happier with 5 or 10 like Harrisburg or Williamsport have so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 It's been a dry month so far here. .20 precip so far this month and we're 18 days in this short month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Still 20 at 9AM. Going to have some ice forming on the ponds again. Elevation on the South Mountain chain taking the cold award today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 18, 2023 Author Share Posted February 18, 2023 Low of 22 in Marysville this morning. 29 currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: 25% (Harrisburg) is not defendable but yea Allentown is so bad, Billy Joel is thinking of doing another song. Yeah, Allentown at only 3 inches in mid February is unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Lol, it’s bad, but my point is that it’s all relative. The people in DC or NY would be a little happier with 5 or 10 like Harrisburg or Williamsport have so far. So, our winter really hasn't been that bad because other areas suck more? Again, a lot of regular contributors to this thread are no where near 5" for the season. And some are still under 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Rochester is the worst. That’s insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Rochester is the worst. That’s insane. I’m pretty sure Rochester gets the most snow on average of any city over 100,000. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Low of 22.1 here this morning. Recovered to 33.8 just after 11am. I'm wondering if I'm actually one of the lucky ones so far this season? I've had 10" from a 3" event and a 3.5" event. The remaining has been nickel-and-dime stuff. I don't have the exact date, but most likely in late November on a Monday afternoon around 5pm, snow developed and quickly became heavy for about 30 minutes, then quit rapidly. But, 1.0" was on my board for the start of the season. As bad as this season has been for many east of the Susq, winter 3 years ago ('19-'20) was worse (here) with 6.5" for the entire season. Most of that came from one event in mid-January. I'm sure most remember that adding insult to injury, we had a snow squall on May 9th! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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