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Central PA Winter 2022/2023


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3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

GFS did better than a lot of models for sure, but I think (?) the Euro might have been better. 

GFS had the 2"+ mark well down through Lanco - I don't think southern areas are getting to 2". I thought the Euro had closer to 1" over most of southern Lanco which seems to be a more likely outcome at this point. 

Jus got past 1" here in Columbia with moderate snow, so we'll see. 

Heres my beloved NAM from last evening.  Solid bust to the s/se sides and we may have a little more snow left to come.  IMO the GFS did a decent job w/ r/s (like RGEM), but I've not seen a map posted that looks really close down our way.  Guess that add's to the blended approach that we sometimes need to take.

nam3km_asnow_neus_39.png

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6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

GFS did better than a lot of models for sure, but I think (?) the Euro might have been better. 

GFS had the 2"+ mark well down through Lanco - I don't think southern areas are getting to 2". I thought the Euro had closer to 1" over most of southern Lanco which seems to be a more likely outcome at this point. 

Jus got past 1" here in Columbia with moderate snow, so we'll see. 

Oh, if comparing to other models then I totally understand.    I thought people may have been saying GFS nailed it while the GFS seemed high.  Nam did really poorly, RGEM did poorly until the end, the HRRR was too warm in thermals, etc.   I thought the GFS has large 4-6" areas near Harrisburg. 

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Oh, if comparing to other models then I totally understand.    I thought people may have been saying GFS nailed it while the GFS seemed high.  Nam did really poorly, RGEM did poorly until the end, the HRRR was too warm in thermals, etc.   I thought the GFS has large 4-6" areas near Harrisburg. 

Yeah, I was comparing GFS to everything else. Euro may have been 2nd closest. NAM and RGEM did poorly. And I’m only grading my hood. I’m selfish like that!

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2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Going with 2" final here...actually some light rain and 35 at the moment.  Impressive part for me is of the 2", the roads had a good 1.5" on! 

I assumed main roads would be ok with extremely marginal temps but that first push of snow was so heavy it overwrote that issue. 

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3 minutes ago, canderson said:

I assumed main roads would be ok with extremely marginal temps but that first push of snow was so heavy it overwrote that issue. 

The neighborhood I'm in is prime for a long sled track, ideal conditions at the moment lol. Roads out our way were nothing short of awful. Some sleet in there now to really make things rough. 

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10 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Heres my beloved NAM from last evening.  Solid bust to the s/se sides and we may have a little more snow left to come.  IMO the GFS did a decent job w/ r/s (like RGEM), but I've not seen a map posted that looks really close down our way.  Guess that add's to the blended approach that we sometimes need to take.

nam3km_asnow_neus_39.png

Yeah, the NAM and short term meso's left us high and dry. I hedged with them and got taken out behind the woodshed.

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4 minutes ago, canderson said:

I assumed main roads would be ok with extremely marginal temps but that first push of snow was so heavy it overwrote that issue. 

At the start of the event until 12:30 roads were pretty bad a few accidents on 83 Tho that first burst of snow had to be like 2 inchs in the first hour it was pretty crazy. Id say we may hit 4 inchs at the end but most likely 3.5 mdt area 

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8 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Heres my beloved NAM from last evening.  Solid bust to the s/se sides and we may have a little more snow left to come.  IMO the GFS did a decent job w/ r/s (like RGEM), but I've not seen a map posted that looks really close down our way.  Guess that add's to the blended approach that we sometimes need to take.

 

That tropical tidbits map that includes sleet with the snowfall makes the 3k NAM look halfway competent with this event. It was showing less than 1.5” south of I-80 in almost all of central PA on model sites that separate that out as recently as 6z this morning. The 12z run still didn’t even pick up on any Sus Valley snowfall, even in Harrisburg. 

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2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Happy snow day everyone!!!

It’s been snowing hard in Marysville since around 10:30.

I just measured 2.2 of snow in Marysville and it is still coming down at a good rate.

Maybe I’ll make it to 3 if this rate continues for a bit?

Congrats to you for sticking with the GFS on this one...for the snow coverage area. 

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3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It was pretty insistent that it would snow down here. Definitely won that little battle.

Yep.  We looked to be getting dryslotted but it is pouring rain right....I realize I am the most southern member of the board so no surprise there but the end of the precip looked to be moving in faster a bit earlier.  36 degrees. 

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21 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Yeah, I was comparing GFS to everything else. Euro may have been 2nd closest. NAM and RGEM did poorly. And I’m only grading my hood. I’m selfish like that!

my RGEM comment was also based on r/s line and not actual IMBY snow amounts.  almost everyone busted there, but as bubbles stated, the RGEM caught onto something late, but GFS led the pack in being steady and close to who got wet and who got white. I dont put much faith in snow maps (although I do enjoy looking at them).  

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looks like back end is here maybe we could get another burst looking to the south but may be moving more east then north. Ill take it tho no change over no damn washing it away If we can get some clear skies tonight temps should go lower then forecast 

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15 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

That tropical tidbits map that includes sleet with the snowfall makes the 3k NAM look halfway competent with this event. It was showing less than 1.5” south of I-80 in almost all of central PA on model sites that separate that out as recently as 6z this morning. The 12z run still didn’t even pick up on any Sus Valley snowfall, even in Harrisburg. 

Yeah, I shoulda stated for us LSV'rs.  IMO you central/norther folk really were locked into 3-6" for quite a while, so no surprises there IMO.  

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