Bubbler86 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, windycutter said: No ice! WAA here. CAD does not occur due to being just west of the ridge. We do not get much CAD here either (I am on the other side of the ridges from the LSV), but we had pretty extensive Ice and lots of tree damage just a few hundred feet above me (up the mountain). I am not that familiar with the layout of the Laurels as to who might have received ice. I know Mag had quite a bit. So just wind damage, wow. We never had that much wind here....not damage level at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 57 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Models are narrowing the corridor for potential frozen on the front end, keeping it in the interior counties for the most part. Still a chance for the LSV to see some mixed depending on timing (faster) but it does appear that the best chance of anything accumulating stays west of the Sus river and likely closer to the I-99 corridor. Way too early look at the NAM…which has most of the front end phase in it’s range now is unimpressed thermally, with maybe a little bit of ice but not much in the way of any frozen anywhere. Will have to see how that evolves, one thing that occurred in the last event noted by CTP during the storm was models were a couple degrees too cold aloft, delaying the changover to snow that was supposed to occur for that. Different situation here, but a detail like that is something that could be the difference between a few inches of snow vs some mix and icing where models have been showing the corridor of snow. Either way, all of C-PA warms and any mix turns to rain ahead of the approaching rapidly deepening low and associated frontal boundary. It looks like the Sus Valley touches the 50s Thurs night into Fri morning with the rest of central and northern generally in the high 30s-low 40s. Frontal passage timing about late morning west to the mid-later afternoon east on Friday. Snow behind the front is still a big question mark of course. We’re probably going to have to wait for 3k NAM and HRRR time to really get a handle on that. Euro is really not printing much snow accums at all despite looking okay on the conditional maps. GFS puts out a couple inches of snow in the Sus Valley. Since this has really turned into straight up lakes cutter event with no secondary coastal influence, I do kind of worry about the downslope component drying out the precip behind the front, especially the in the southern parts of the Sus Valley. Plus the GFS has seemed to have a knack for being overzealous on digital LSV snow as of late. I don’t have any problem seeing those types of accums in the western half of PA or the Laurels but it’s a big question mark from the ridge and valley part of PA eastward. I will say this, considering the very rapid temp drops behind the front and gusty winds, ANY kind of snowfall be it a dusting or whatever could quickly create hazardous conditions. And being this occurs on Friday afternoon/evening of Dec 23rd, I think travelers probably should be mindful of that. Lastly I think most of the area probably see winds of the advisory variety with and behind the front (and perhaps some breezy weather in the Sus Valley beforehand). Outside of potentially the Laurels, I don’t think we’ll see any prolific high wind warning type winds that one would think you’d see with a deep storm of this nature. Reason being is i think the more western track of the low may take the best pressure rises through Ohio, western PA and western NY. It will still be quite windy either way with low wind chills, especially Fri Night and Christmas Eve. Great write up. CTP's 2 pm update specifically mentions the drying out part that you wrote and how they don't expect any frozen precip in the LSV Friday. It really, really sucks we're going to a driving rain storm and then roughly 12 hours later it'll be 15 f'n degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 MU not looking for snow either. He/they do have temps making a running into the mid to upper 50's prior to the front. If that happens CXY may make a run for 60. I do not have access to the models that guestimate flooding potential but lots of streams above normal in the East Central part of the state and a few in the LSV as well. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
windycutter Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: We do not get much CAD here either (I am on the other side of the ridges from the LSV), but we had pretty extensive Ice and lots of tree damage just a few hundred feet above me (up the mountain). I am not that familiar with the layout of the Laurels as to who might have received ice. I know Mag had quite a bit. So just wind damage, wow. We never had that much wind here....not damage level at least. The crazy thing is that my area rarely sees any type of advisory or warning. As stated with the prior storm, the wind ripped pieces of my mother's awning out from the house. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 What direction will the winds be, NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, canderson said: What direction will the winds be, NW? On the GFS they are primarily out of the West in the 6 hour panel after the front passes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 The 18Z GFS is still quite vigorous in suggesting temps will work out positively for snow on both the front and back end for parts of the LSV. Front end is Western LSV and back is actually more east. Easiest to just post the snow map that covers both events. Still snowing in the western 1/3 and North Central parts of the state at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: We do not get much CAD here either (I am on the other side of the ridges from the LSV), but we had pretty extensive Ice and lots of tree damage just a few hundred feet above me (up the mountain). I am not that familiar with the layout of the Laurels as to who might have received ice. I know Mag had quite a bit. So just wind damage, wow. We never had that much wind here....not damage level at least. Sleet was the dominant precip type here on this side of the Laurel’s from that event. I had a fresh 0.7” of snow early Sunday morning from some upslope but otherwise all this on the ground is hard pack pingers. I guess that’s one way to ensure a white Christmas. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Just now, MAG5035 said: Sleet was the dominant precip type here on this side of the Laurel’s from that event. I had a fresh 0.7” of snow early Sunday morning from some upslope but otherwise all this on the ground is hard pack pingers. I guess that’s one way to ensure a white Christmas. Several LSV and near folks would probably pay some $$$$ (Blizz Bucks?) for our yards to look like that right. Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Treated myself to a birthday hike today in the snow up at World's End State Park. Probably one of my favorite overlooks in PA. I definitely missed the snow, about 4-5 inches of packed snow there. Needed my micro spikes to get up the mountain 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 10 minutes ago, Newman said: Treated myself to a birthday hike today in the snow up at World's End State Park. Probably one of my favorite overlooks in PA. I definitely missed the snow, about 4-5 inches of packed snow there. Needed my micro spikes to get up the mountain Love that place!! Absolutely beautiful and love the rock garden on top as well! Also happy birthday! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 I don’t have as much snow as Mag but still have some. Not much melt today 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 19, 2022 Author Share Posted December 19, 2022 3 hours ago, paweather said: @Blizzard of 93when is our next tracking event I would like to uncancel winter. Lol, after reading the posts on here this morning, I’m not sure if I’m allowed to post about future patterns or storm chances outside of 1 day? it sounds like a few people want to turn this into a glorified Obs thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 19, 2022 Author Share Posted December 19, 2022 Lol, Partly cloudy & 32 in Marysville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Lol, after reading the posts on here this morning, I’m not sure if I’m allowed to post about future patterns or storm chances outside of 1 day? it sounds like a few people want to turn this into a glorified Obs thread.No way! Yeah it stinks that this storm didn’t materialize but it is December 19th! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 19, 2022 Author Share Posted December 19, 2022 We desperately need some snow! Good posters are under attack in the other regional threads on this board as well. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 19, 2022 Author Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 minute ago, anotherman said: No way! Yeah it stinks that this storm didn’t materialize but it is December 19th! Go back & read the train wreck on here from this morning. It was a happy Monday for me reading that… Partly cloudy & down to 31 now…lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Lol, Partly cloudy & 32 in Marysville Super late Nooners! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Lol, after reading the posts on here this morning, I’m not sure if I’m allowed to post about future patterns or storm chances outside of 1 day? it sounds like a few people want to turn this into a glorified Obs thread. Always post Blizz don’t worry about that feedback 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 7 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Lol, after reading the posts on here this morning, I’m not sure if I’m allowed to post about future patterns or storm chances outside of 1 day? it sounds like a few people want to turn this into a glorified Obs thread. Heck and I canceled winter already 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 19, 2022 Author Share Posted December 19, 2022 Every pro Met & quality poster on here & across the internet weather universe was fired up about the potential of this pattern. It didn’t materialize as snow for many of our yards, so what do some posters do….? They belittle posters & forecasters that were fired up over a great looking pattern that usually delivers 9 times out of 10… They of course knew all along it would fail….so why did everyone waste their time looking at all of the potential? Why were pro forecasters salivating & woofing over this pattern potential… The naysayers answer… Don’t post about patterns in the 10 to 15 day range….heck 5 to 7 days is too long for some…too much potential disappointment to possibly handle… Lol…. I guess I’ll just start looking out the window instead of looking at everything else…!!!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 14 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Every pro Met & quality poster on here & across the internet weather universe was fired up about the potential of this pattern. It didn’t materialize as snow for many of our yards, so what do some posters do….? They belittle posters & forecasters that were fired up over a great looking pattern that usually delivers 9 times out of 10… They of course knew all along it would fail….so why did everyone waste their time looking at all of the potential? Why were pro forecasters salivating & woofing over this pattern potential… The naysayers answer… Don’t post about patterns in the 10 to 15 day range….heck 5 to 7 days is too long for some…too much potential disappointment to possibly handle… Lol…. I guess I’ll just start looking out the window instead of looking at everything else…!!!!! Your doing an awesome job!! Winter just isn’t cooperating with you. Keep on posting. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 6 minutes ago, pawatch said: Your doing an awesome job!! Winter just isn’t cooperating with you. Keep on posting. 100% agree!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 23 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Every pro Met & quality poster on here & across the internet weather universe was fired up about the potential of this pattern. It didn’t materialize as snow for many of our yards, so what do some posters do….? They belittle posters & forecasters that were fired up over a great looking pattern that usually delivers 9 times out of 10… They of course knew all along it would fail….so why did everyone waste their time looking at all of the potential? Why were pro forecasters salivating & woofing over this pattern potential… The naysayers answer… Don’t post about patterns in the 10 to 15 day range….heck 5 to 7 days is too long for some…too much potential disappointment to possibly handle… Lol…. I guess I’ll just start looking out the window instead of looking at everything else…!!!!! I don’t care if we get no snow we need you to keep posting anything any maps etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Digital snow is better than no snow. And since we get very little actual snow now might as well enjoy the digital variety. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 44 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Every pro Met & quality poster on here & across the internet weather universe was fired up about the potential of this pattern. It didn’t materialize as snow for many of our yards, so what do some posters do….? They belittle posters & forecasters that were fired up over a great looking pattern that usually delivers 9 times out of 10… They of course knew all along it would fail….so why did everyone waste their time looking at all of the potential? Why were pro forecasters salivating & woofing over this pattern potential… The naysayers answer… Don’t post about patterns in the 10 to 15 day range….heck 5 to 7 days is too long for some…too much potential disappointment to possibly handle… Lol…. I guess I’ll just start looking out the window instead of looking at everything else…!!!!! You do good work. A nice service to us in the Pittsburgh forum as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 22 minutes ago, canderson said: Digital snow is better than no snow. And since we get very little actual snow now might as well enjoy the digital variety. Is digital snow better than canderson winds? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, paweather said: Is digital snow better than canderson winds? Well digital snow never happens - winds are a constant. It’s brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 The 18Z Icon had Tobias Harris leading the Sixers in scoring midway through the second quarter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 I'd like to chime in here with the other recent posters to say that I love all the posts from @Blizzard of 93. It's funny but it seems like once every winter our subforum goes through an emotionally driven "episode" like we all witnessed this morning. Ultimately we all always "make up" and move on. Let's hope this time it's the same. I know there is at least one other poster here that isn't in to sports. For the most part, neither am I. My only very tiny gripe is that I wish the discussions in this specific forum could be limited to weather-related posts primarily. Of course, the last time I brought this up and suggested that a separate banter thread be created to cover all other topics besides weather, I was pretty quickly dismissed. I'll say it again, why can't we have a separate banter thread for anything else but weather? If you want to, create a sports-only banter thread so all sports fans know where to go to discuss their favorite teams/players. If it costed money to create and maintain any additional threads, well then I might look at this differently. But, threads are free! Think about it, please? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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