paweather Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 39 minutes ago, pasnownut said: If I didnt know any better, thats a triple phaser. Anyone else think so? You can see the NS diving in on the backside. I’m looking now geezus I don’t know about the triple phase but I need to see more eye candy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 15, 2022 Author Share Posted December 15, 2022 Still no power for me in Marysville! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 34 minutes ago, paweather said: The 18z GFS certainly warmed my spirits! My house is down to 58 currently. The 18z GFS would be epic for Christmas Eve Eve!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 13 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 18z GFS certainly warmed my spirits! My house is down to 58 currently. The 18z GFS would be epic for Christmas Eve Eve!!! Tracking up to Christmas next week! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMDEW80 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: getting closer to the 6" mark at Hyner Mtn area https://www.microseven.com/embed/xtVycBRQ8ww more than me up here, have at least an inch of sleet and about 2 of snow. We had all sleet with a little zr till about 1 then it switched over to all snow, but the precipitation was lacking. Unless the radar really starts filling in over night this is going to be a pretty big bust on the wsw 6-12 we had this morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 25 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Still no power for me in Marysville! My Power is finally back on! Now….Back to tracking! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: My Power is finally back on! Now….Back to tracking! Tracking Snow and Santa! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 As far as event totals, I had about 1.7” of total frozen…basically 1.6” of sleet and a skiff of wet snow on top. Ice accums were negligible after it touched above freezing with surface temps but I think I had roughly a tenth of so of that this morning. The lull in the precip this afternoon definitely affected the overall outcome by coming to this area at a time when precip was getting ready to turn to snow and/or reach prolific pinger event status. The secondary batch mostly went just east of here. The result is a bit of a bust, but that much sleet is still a good bit to deal with. And it will have staying power with a cool forecast from here on til whatever happens near Christmas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 18z GFS/GEFS and Euro are all good for a plowable snowfall for much of this subforum towards the end of next week. Behind that, strong consensus for below normal temps and a weather pattern favorable for additional storms. Couple of caveats worth noting: 1.) IMO, I would focus more on ensemble guidance until 00z Tuesday. After that, put more weight on operational guidance. 2.) We're looking at al almost El Nino like pattern in a La Nina pattern. Weird things can happen. 3.) I don't think this turns into a MECS or HECS, the ceiling for this seems SECS. That being said, this would be Christmas snow with deep cold after it and put many places at or above climo for December. It's a solid pattern that we are entering! 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 hour ago, AMDEW80 said: more than me up here, have at least an inch of sleet and about 2 of snow. We had all sleet with a little zr till about 1 then it switched over to all snow, but the precipitation was lacking. Unless the radar really starts filling in over night this is going to be a pretty big bust on the wsw 6-12 we had this morning. Love seeing someone post from the northern tier. We need more of that God’s Country representation! What is your elevation? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: 3.) I don't think this turns into a MECS or HECS, the ceiling for this seems SECS. That being said, this would be Christmas snow with deep cold after it and put many places at or above climo for December. It's a solid pattern that we are entering! Is it wave spacing, the fast flow, unlikely "perfect" phase, geographic location, or something else that would make you say the ceiling is a SECS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 hours ago, AMDEW80 said: more than me up here, have at least an inch of sleet and about 2 of snow. We had all sleet with a little zr till about 1 then it switched over to all snow, but the precipitation was lacking. Unless the radar really starts filling in over night this is going to be a pretty big bust on the wsw 6-12 we had this morning. sorry to hear that. Yeah that warm nose often tends to be a spoiler in systems w/ marginal column. Warm so often seems to win. Lets get some blue lines below Pa for a few days n see what next week cooks up precip wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 15 minutes ago, Newman said: Is it wave spacing, the fast flow, unlikely "perfect" phase, geographic location, or something else that would make you say the ceiling is a SECS? Just keeping my D8 expectations in check. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 20 minutes ago, Newman said: Is it wave spacing, the fast flow, unlikely "perfect" phase, geographic location, or something else that would make you say the ceiling is a SECS? Plenty of Mec/Hec on the ensemble members. The eps ensembles use slightly different starting points (except the control I believe) to cover many options but with so many showing at least a mecs, probably suggests the ceiling allows it. The perfect phase issue makes the floor a bit lower as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 32 minutes ago, Newman said: Is it wave spacing, the fast flow, unlikely "perfect" phase, geographic location, or something else that would make you say the ceiling is a SECS? How bout all the above? In something like the HH GFS run wave spacing is close enough to almost work together (northern stream and southern streams phase). As I suggested earlier, the northern stream (NS) energy is diving in on the back side feeding the coastal storm cold air. The pattern depicted is not progressive (fast), and the SLP off the coast takes its good ol time coming up the coast and gives time for that NS energy to catch up and "dives in" on the back and bombs out off the coast. IF that would happen, thats called a capture/phase as one system feeds into the other (NS dives into SS (SLP off coast). The excitement is seeing all pieces of the puzzle getting close to working in concert w/ one another. I'll not go much deeper than that cause thats the pros job, but hopefully my info in weenie terms helps to understand the elevated excitement. Thats how I see it and if any disagree or have better disco to offer....share away. All that said, Eskimos right, its a long ways out, and there's a bunch of good and bad runs likely to follow...so keep expectations reasonable. It's also been a long time since something like this has shown up inside 240 hours, so a tad of excitement is totally warranted IMO. I'm keeping a casual eye on it, and wont dive this deep on every run...too far out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, pasnownut said: How bout all the above? In something like the HH GFS run wave spacing is close enough to almost work together (northern stream and southern streams phase). As I suggested earlier, the northern stream (NS) energy is diving in on the back side feeding the coastal storm cold air. The pattern depicted is not progressive (fast), and the SLP off the coast takes its good ol time coming up the coast and gives time for that NS energy to catch up and "dives in" on the back and bombs out off the coast. IF that would happen, thats called a capture/phase as one system feeds into the other (NS dives into SLP off coast). The excitement is seeing all pieces of the puzzle getting close to working in concert w/ one another. I'll not go much deeper than that cause thats the pros job, but hopefully my info in weenie terms helps to understand the elevated excitement. Thats how I see it and if any disagree or have better disco to offer....share away. This is a pattern we haven’t seen n years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, paweather said: This is a POTENTIAL pattern we haven’t seen n years FYP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: FYP I agree with that just getting excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 alright blizz....if your power goes back out.....turn on the generator....you were slackin today and the night shift belongs to you buddy boy. Go find us some snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 31 minutes ago, pasnownut said: How bout all the above? In something like the HH GFS run wave spacing is close enough to almost work together (northern stream and southern streams phase). As I suggested earlier, the northern stream (NS) energy is diving in on the back side feeding the coastal storm cold air. The pattern depicted is not progressive (fast), and the SLP off the coast takes its good ol time coming up the coast and gives time for that NS energy to catch up and "dives in" on the back and bombs out off the coast. IF that would happen, thats called a capture/phase as one system feeds into the other (NS dives into SS (SLP off coast). The excitement is seeing all pieces of the puzzle getting close to working in concert w/ one another. I'll not go much deeper than that cause thats the pros job, but hopefully my info in weenie terms helps to understand the elevated excitement. Thats how I see it and if any disagree or have better disco to offer....share away. All that said, Eskimos right, its a long ways out, and there's a bunch of good and bad runs likely to follow...so keep expectations reasonable. It's also been a long time since something like this has shown up inside 240 hours, so a tad of excitement is totally warranted IMO. I'm keeping a casual eye on it, and wont dive this deep on every run...too far out. I agree, it is good to keep expectations reasonable for now….but this pattern next week has the potential to be a major storm just before Christmas that we remember for a long time. At the very least, we have a very high chance of seeing a white Christmas even if we just get a lower impact event next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 23 minutes ago, pasnownut said: alright blizz....if your power goes back out.....turn on the generator....you were slackin today and the night shift belongs to you buddy boy. Go find us some snow. Lol, it’s probably good that I wasn’t able to post much today. i will be better off in the long run with a little extra rest! I have the feeling that that there will be many long nights of tracking this week! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Carter Hart was special tonight. Back to weather let’s go GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Had around 1.4” rain today, with .1” snow and prob .2” sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 How long has it been since we had a triple phaser 2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 0z GFS not as snowy but still accums. Low goes off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, paweather said: 0z GFS not as snowy but still accums. Low goes off the coast. Eh here we go lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ruin said: Eh here we go lol Long ways out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 It’ll get someone here I have faith. I’ve had a couple of very good winters in a row, time for the southern boys to get their high end warning storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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