Nibor Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 The ice cream truck is out in my neighborhood. Anyone want something? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 If i have to moderate anything during the game its an instaban. Thanks in advance. Lol 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 Read JB is going off the charts hype on the paid site for 3/1 - 4/15….predicting a -5F temp average for the I-95 corridor and 20+ inches of snow in NYC for that time frame. Get ready for March, 2012…. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 31 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Read JB is going off the charts hype on the paid site for 3/1 - 4/15….predicting a -5F temp average for the I-95 corridor and 20+ inches of snow in NYC for that time frame. Get ready for March, 2012…. Also I thought you quit us. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 Also I thought you quit us. in caso di dubbio, spegni la montagna verde 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 56 minutes ago, snowman19 said: in caso di dubbio, spegni la montagna verde “In case of dubious, green spaghetti mountain” This is what I choose to believe you wrote. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 Wife and I are up in Danbury CT area. Really nice up here. Perfect, except for the bare ass ground . Definitely expected snow on the ground when we planned this trip, we’re also nearly one thousand feet elevation in this park, too. You know this winter sucks when there’s not a single pile of snow anywhere near here. At least we’re having a fun time despite. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 8 hours ago, snowman19 said: Read JB is going off the charts hype on the paid site for 3/1 - 4/15….predicting a -5F temp average for the I-95 corridor and 20+ inches of snow in NYC for that time frame. Get ready for March, 2012…. People still pay to read him lol. I saw he was hyping something about global warming and the turkey earthquake 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 6 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: Wife and I are up in Danbury CT area. Really nice up here. Perfect, except for the bare ass ground . Definitely expected snow on the ground when we planned this trip, we’re also nearly one thousand feet elevation in this park, too. You know this winter sucks when there’s not a single pile of snow anywhere near here. At least we’re having a fun time despite. I wonder how many hundreds of miles you'd have to go to actually see any snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: I wonder how many hundreds of miles you'd have to go to actually see any snow There’s snow up in northern New England mountains and the ADK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 People still pay to read him lol. I saw he was hyping something about global warming and the turkey earthquake Saying the I-95 corridor is going to go -5 for temps and NYC is going to get 20 inches of snow from 3/1 to 4/15 is predicting an epic, historic pattern. He’s a fool. No one takes him seriously anymore. It’s satire at this point 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 32 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Saying the I-95 corridor is going to go -5 for temps and NYC is going to get 20 inches of snow from 3/1 to 4/15 is predicting an epic, historic pattern. He’s a fool. No one takes him seriously anymore. It’s satire at this point I haven’t been following things too closely as we’ve been on a trip, but do you think there’ll be any sort of improvement at the end of the month into March? Any chance for cold and snow, or is it still a long shot. Just curious, seemed like it was still all over the place with at least some potential when I left. Not expecting any miracles of course, I’ll settle for an advisory event at this point. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 11 hours ago, snowman19 said: Read JB is going off the charts hype on the paid site for 3/1 - 4/15….predicting a -5F temp average for the I-95 corridor and 20+ inches of snow in NYC for that time frame. Get ready for March, 2012…. If such descriptions are accurate, a spectacular bust is probably the most likely outcome. Such an extreme outcome is extremely unlikely to verify. Keeping in mind low model skill at extended timeframes, none of the long-range guidance (ECWMF weeklies or CFSv2) has anything close to such an outcome. We'll see if the ECMWF weeklies change when they are posted later today. For perspective, the average temperature during March 1-April 15, 1991-2020 in New York City is 45.4°. The last time NYC had a mean temperature at least 5° below that figure was in 1960. That occurred during a colder climate regime (the 1951-1980 average temperature for March 1-April 15 was 43.9°). The last time, NYC saw 20" or more snow during that period occurred in 1956 (also the last year with a -5° anomaly/20" or more snowfall during March 1-April 15). Before that, the last such combination of snow and cold occurred in 1916. Overall, since 1869, New York City has seen just 6 years with such a combination of snowfall and cold (temperature anomaly of 5° or more below normal) during March 1-April 15: 1875, 1888, 1896, 1914, 1916, and 1956. None of those winters saw the kind of warmth the current winter has had. The warmest was 1955-1956 with a mean temperature of 35.5°. None of them featured the exceptionally low snowfall that has occurred though February 12th. 1914 had 2.1" but with a winter mean temperature of 33.9°. 1956 had 5.5" with a winter mean temperature of 35.5°. The figures through February 12, 2023 are 0.4" and 40.5° respectively. All said, the latest weekly guidance (the CFSv2 stays warm through the March 6-12 period; last week's ECMWF weeklies brought readings to near normal to close February and start March), the warming that has occurred since the 1950s and 1960s (though JB likely dismisses this factor outright given his stance on climate change despite both the data and science--that creates a large and growing blind spot in his forecasting), and NYC's historic statistics all suggest that there is only a very low probability of such an outcome. Finally, why might he issue such an extreme forecast that appears to have very little probability of verifying? It may well have to do with the fact that he has not fared well this winter. His winter forecasts have essentially burned up in the unrelenting torches of non-winter 2022-2023. He had called for a severely cold and snowy winter in Europe, adding political commentary that Europe would face major energy shortages driven by its energy policies. He also called for the "hounds of winter" to "howl" during January 10-30 (with posted maps of past Arctic outbreaks), invoked the March 1993/January 1996 storms in December and January 1996/2016 storms in January as "analogs." Against this backdrop, his described forecast seems to be one last desperate swing for the proverbial fences. It is sad how far he has fallen. His forecasts have been increasingly and adversely impacted by his deepening spiral into climate change denial, political considerations, and even conspiracy theories. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 People still pay to read him lol. I saw he was hyping something about global warming and the turkey earthquake I have no idea what I’m talking about but that makes zero logical sense.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 I haven’t been following things too closely as we’ve been on a trip, but do you think there’ll be any sort of improvement at the end of the month into March? Any chance for cold and snow, or is it still a long shot. Just curious, seemed like it was still all over the place with at least some potential when I left. Not expecting any miracles of course, I’ll settle for an advisory event at this point. ThanksAn improvement? Sure. That wouldn’t take much after this disaster. But -5 for temps and 20 inches of snow in NYC between March 1st and April 15th? That’s laughably delusional. Wishcasting at its best 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 4 minutes ago, North and West said: I have no idea what I’m talking about but that makes zero logical sense. . He claimed that others were wrong in claiming the earthquake was caused by global warming. I've seen no such claims Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Saying the I-95 corridor is going to go -5 for temps and NYC is going to get 20 inches of snow from 3/1 to 4/15 is predicting an epic, historic pattern. He’s a fool. No one takes him seriously anymore. It’s satire at this point He's banking on a March 2018 outcome with the SSWE and the MJO going to 8-1-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 Just now, snowman19 said: An improvement? Sure. That wouldn’t take much after this disaster. But -5 for temps and 20 inches of snow in NYC between March 1st and April 15th? That’s laughably delusional. Wishcasting at its best Even March 2018 was only -2 to -3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: I wonder how many hundreds of miles you'd have to go to actually see any snow NW Massachusetts maybe so about 90 miles north of Danbury. Sad. I'm about 20 miles SE of Danbury and we have not had a plowable event in over a year now... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: He's banking on a March 2018 outcome with the SSWE and the MJO going to 8-1-2 He's a full on crackpot at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 He's banking on a March 2018 outcome with the SSWE and the MJO going to 8-1-2Good luck with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 really hope we just salvage this dumpster fire with one decent event or we wrap it up, get some HOT weather mid spring and just bank on a good winter next year... i cant imagine this happening again next year. also miss me with that wet cold spring type crap that'd be the cherry on top of this horrendous winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 25 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: He claimed that others were wrong in claiming the earthquake was caused by global warming. I've seen no such claims “This imaginary thing I have concocted in my own mind is ridiculous and I will not stand for it!” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 33 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: NW Massachusetts maybe so about 90 miles north of Danbury. Sad. I'm about 20 miles SE of Danbury and we have not had a plowable event in over a year now... There’s decent snow cover in the southern greens above 1,000’. Though even there it’s below normal for this time of year and going fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: If such descriptions are accurate, a spectacular bust is probably the most likely outcome. Such an extreme outcome is extremely unlikely to verify. Keeping in mind low model skill at extended timeframes, none of the long-range guidance (ECWMF weeklies or CFSv2) has anything close to such an outcome. We'll see if the ECMWF weeklies change when they are posted later today. For perspective, the average temperature during March 1-April 15, 1991-2020 in New York City is 45.4°. The last time NYC had a mean temperature at least 5° below that figure was in 1960. That occurred during a colder climate regime (the 1951-1980 average temperature for March 1-April 15 was 43.9°). The last time, NYC saw 20" or more snow during that period occurred in 1956 (also the last year with a -5° anomaly/20" or more snowfall during March 1-April 15). Before that, the last such combination of snow and cold occurred in 1916. Overall, since 1869, New York City has seen just 6 years with such a combination of snowfall and cold (temperature anomaly of 5° or more below normal) during March 1-April 15: 1875, 1888, 1896, 1914, 1916, and 1956. None of those winters saw the kind of warmth the current winter has had. The warmest was 1955-1956 with a mean temperature of 35.5°. None of them featured the exceptionally low snowfall that has occurred though February 12th. 1914 had 2.1" but with a winter mean temperature of 33.9°. 1956 had 5.5" with a winter mean temperature of 35.5°. The figures through February 12, 2023 are 0.4" and 40.5° respectively. All said, the latest weekly guidance (the CFSv2 stays warm through the March 6-12 period; the last week's ECMWF weeklies brought readings to near normal to close February and start March), the warming that has occurred since the 1950s and 1960s (though JB likely dismisses this factor outright given his stance on climate change despite both the data and science--that creates a large and growing blind spot in his forecasting), and NYC's historic statistics all suggest that there is only a very low probability of such an outcome. Finally, why might he issue such an extreme forecast that appears to have very little probability of verifying? It may well have to do with the fact that he has not fared well this winter. His winter forecasts have essentially burned up in the unrelenting torches of non-winter 2022-2023. He had called for a severely cold and snowy winter in Europe, adding political commentary that Europe would face major energy shortages driven by its energy policies. He also called for the "hounds of winter" to "howl" during January 10-30 (with posted maps of past Arctic outbreaks), invoked the March 1993/January 1996 storms in December and January 1996/2016 storms in January as "analogs." Against this backdrop, his described forecast seems to be one last desperate swing for the proverbial fences. It is sad how far he has fallen. His forecasts have been increasingly and adversely impacted by his deepening spiral into climate change denial, political considerations, and even conspiracy theories. Yeah and not to open up a can of worms but the Covid vaxx stuff on twitter was really strange... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: He's banking on a March 2018 outcome with the SSWE and the MJO going to 8-1-2 Stop. This is ridiculous talk haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 1 hour ago, vegan_edible said: really hope we just salvage this dumpster fire with one decent event or we wrap it up, get some HOT weather mid spring and just bank on a good winter next year... i cant imagine this happening again next year. also miss me with that wet cold spring type crap that'd be the cherry on top of this horrendous winter 0 for 2 and a warm Nino December? Worst case scenario, but Im a Mets fan and skiing without jacket on 2/13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 I guess this belongs in banter. CNN headline. Flowers and trees blooming up to 3 weeks earlier than normal in the Eastern US 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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